Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[Catacol]

Russia's Snow cover is going...going...

 

There looks to be a week or so of melt to come. Got some high 850s pushing into central Russia over the next few days with winds from the W or SW. By this time next week temps look a bit more back to seasonal norm but by then the damage may well have been done in a fairly big way. 

 

This chart spells snow disaster for some regions:

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Winter wonder]

Look at the steep ice gain.  http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/  Also the temperatures are looking good from what I can see on this coloured map, pinks turning purple and violet over northern Russia and the Arctic

 

To me we seem in better shape than this time last year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Look at the steep ice gain.  http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/  Also the temperatures are looking good from what I can see on this coloured map, pinks turning purple and violet over northern Russia and the Arctic

 

To me we seem in better shape than this time last year.

 

Yep, certainly doing well compared to recent years. What's shown on the NSIDC graphs is the 5 day average, you can get the daily updates at around 3 or 4pm here ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

 

Here's another graph, with just Novembers data.

 

 

IJIS updates closer to 9am, and has shown just a 17k increase for yesterday which is way below average. It will be interesting to see how NSIDC compares later on.

[Reefseeker]

Thought i would mention if anyone is interested ,if you put in on Google ,winnipeg web cams and click on top list ,then scroll down to Kimmirut ,NUnavut ,you can see some lovely snow ,also over time you can watch the sea ice over ,keep an eye out for locals all very interesting .you will have to excuse my knowledge of computers etc ,still learning .if any one knows of some better web cams with frequent updating let me know .my friend in canada who works for forestry and hunting industry Reports wolves are much further south in his kneck of the woods with some recent reports of low temp coming in earlier .

 

Here's the link: http://members.shaw.ca/wpgwx/robsobs/ywgcams.htm

 

A very pretty picture as you say of Kimmirut http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

 

Colours at Longyearbyen looking lovely this lunchtime but catch it fast before darkness falls! http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php also Spitzbergen http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

Edited November 5, 2013 by Reefseeker

[Gavin Hannah]

Russia's Snow cover is going...going...

 

Are you looking at the IMS by any chance, I'm still seeing plenty of snow cover, and gains in Scandi......

[BornFromTheVoid]

7th largest October NH snow extent on record (following the 6th largest for September). That's 3rd largest for Eurasia and 20th largest for North America

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

 

[J10]

Some snowfalls over the Alps in recent days, but with temps on the rise, much of this is set to thaw at least to medium levels.

[Skullzrulerz]

Snow cover a bit more west today

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I think there was or is a wee bit of panic going on yesterday re: Western Russia's potential melting over the coming days. However, should one look due North and North-east things remain largely unchanged and will continue in a favourable manner, touch wood. As far as I'm aware, the Polar Vortex is starting to show signs of being under stress during the coming couple of weeks, so attention should be focussed on this aspect in particular. Any Northerly/North-easterly shot the UK can receive would be cold enough to produce wintriness for some, it's just that these will only be fleeting glances up until Mid-November at least. So some positives, some negatives, but my watch period is underway   and I'll be searching for forecast changes in the flow for hereon in.

 

Some current forecasts as they stand, specifically looking for signs of snow and ice build up.

 

Aberdeen - very poor

 

Helsinki - slightly better but still fairly poor

 

Moscow - poor to start with but more hope in just a few days time

 

Oslo - pretty good all things considered

 

 

 

Keep watching the NH pattern and Jetstream for further clues as we enter week two of November and beyond.

Edited November 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[cyclonic happiness]

Don't worry about snow cover in November, it can change in 24 hours and shall.

 

We're in for a stonking winter, just bide you time :-)

[Gavin Hannah]

The sea ice starting to creep downwards towards iceland is what im interested in. How low can it go?

[Skullzrulerz]

The sea ice starting to creep downwards towards iceland is what im interested in. How low can it go?

Is it rare or you have never seen it before?

 

Edit:Ice age Maybe???

Edited November 6, 2013 by Skulltheruler

[Skullzrulerz]

May be able to cross the usa into russia soon 

[gottolovethisweather]

The sea ice starting to creep downwards towards iceland is what im interested in. How low can it go?

 

Interesting to say the least and it backs up my thoughts that when the UK gets the first chance of a direct N or NE flow, perhaps not a NW flow, things will feel more like Winter for sure.

 

Here's a forecast from Iceland and it proves what could happen, given the opportunity to stop the W to E Atlantic flow for a few days.

 

Reykjavik

Edited November 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry guys, the sea ice creeps down the east coast of Greenland toward Iceland every year, but quite rarely actually reaches it.

 

Much closer to Iceland this time last year

 

Closer again in 2011

 

But as you can see from March of 1980, even in years with impressive ice coverage, the ice usually just hugs the south Greenland coast, rather than extending toward Iceland.

 

 

However, earlier in the 20th century, it was a more regular occurrence for the sea to reach Iceland.

 

 

All the charts are here and here

[smithyweather]

Sorry guys, the sea ice creeps down the east coast of Greenland toward Iceland every year, but quite rarely actually reaches it.

 

Much closer to Iceland this time last year

 

Closer again in 2011

 

But as you can see from March of 1980, even in years with impressive ice coverage, the ice usually just hugs the south Greenland coast, rather than extending toward Iceland.

 

 

However, earlier in the 20th century, it was a more regular occurrence for the sea to reach Iceland.

 

 

All the charts are here and here

And why is that?

[Yarmy]

Sorry guys, the sea ice creeps down the east coast of Greenland toward Iceland every year, but quite rarely actually reaches it.

 

Much closer to Iceland this time last year

 

Closer again in 2011

 

But as you can see from March of 1980, even in years with impressive ice coverage, the ice usually just hugs the south Greenland coast, rather than extending toward Iceland.

 

 

However, earlier in the 20th century, it was a more regular occurrence for the sea to reach Iceland.

 

 

All the charts are here and here

Yeah, Irminger current prevents it getting too far. When did snowcover start getting included in those satellite images?

And why is that?

The world is a warmer place now, especially the Arctic.

[Winter wonder]

noticed it too. Small  blob of ice by iceland . sea temps there low enough for something to happen.   Last year there seemed a fleeting moment of an ice bridge I recall.

 

If global cooling gains traction over the next few years I am sure it will happen.  By the way there is a name for a tongue of ice that some times sticks out quite far from the eastern Greenland sea ice area because of a cold current I,m sure someone on here knows about it and Ihave'nt just dream;t it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

And why is that?

 

Just the east Greenland current is where the ice flows along, which stays along the coast, keeping the ice from drifting toward Iceland I think.

 

Yeah, Irminger current prevents it getting too far. When did snowcover start getting included in those satellite images?The world is a warmer place now, especially the Arctic.

 

I think the snow cover is there in the archive images from the end of 2005.

 

noticed it too. Small  blob of ice by iceland . sea temps there low enough for something to happen.   Last year there seemed a fleeting moment of an ice bridge I recall.

 

If global cooling gains traction over the next few years I am sure it will happen.  By the way there is a name for a tongue of ice that some times sticks out quite far from the eastern Greenland sea ice area because of a cold current I,m sure someone on here knows about it and Ihave'nt just dream;t it.

 

It's called the Odden Ice Tongue

[Winter wonder]

Just the east Greenland current is where the ice flows along, which stays along the coast, keeping the ice from drifting toward Iceland I think.

 

 

I think the snow cover is there in the archive images from the end of 2005.

 

 

It's called the Odden Ice Tongue

thanks for that .  Its good to be able to get answers so quick.

[gottolovethisweather]

By the way there is a name for a tongue of ice that some times sticks out quite far from the eastern Greenland sea ice area because of a cold current I,m sure someone on here knows about it and Ihave'nt just dream;t it.

 

Probably an Icelandic Iced-sausage.   (you need to follow the SM debate in the MOD thread in order to understand my chuckling)

 

Of course, the more knowledgeable folk knew all along.

Edited November 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV, the bringer of bad news!

 

We've seen 2 consecutive sea ice extent losses on IJIS over the last 2 days. For early November of the 2002-2012 period, this is unprecedented.

 

What it really means, is that over the last 10 days, many years have caught right up with us, and 2008 has passed above 2013.

 

Year..... Current Diff..... (10 days ago)

2012..... -721,410km2.... (-1,816,650)

2011.....-218,036km2.... (-1,297,723)

2010.....-282,375km2.... (-1,234,016)

2009.....-129,873km2.... (-1,122,954)

2008.....+516,576km2.... (-343,570)

2007.....-176,360km2.... (-1,417,638)

 

When it comes to those hoping for a cold winter, this isn't a bad thing. Numerous studies have shown that low sea ice years tend to have increased chances of cold winters in Europe. 

[Winter wonder]

The beauty of these forums is the exchange of thoughts and ideas by all. I am interested in everything but will never know everything. Pretty sure we are heading for global cooling though.

 

Probably an Icelandic Iced-sausage.   (you need to follow the SM debate in the MOD thread in order to understand my chuckling)

 

Of course, the more knowledgeable folk knew all along.

[gottolovethisweather]

The beauty of these forums is the exchange of thoughts and ideas by all. I am interested in everything but will never know everything.

 

Hear hear.

 

And speaking of such matters, here is today's latest from the various snow and ice coverage sites.

 

Week 44 snow coverage - 29/10/13 to 04/11/13 with only 8 weeks left to end of 2013.

 

 

 

November 6th 2013 snow and ice coverage, courtesy of rutgers.

 

 

November 6th 2013 snow and ice coverage, courtesy of NOAA.

 

 

 

Plenty of encouraging signs on the American side of the Atlantic and I see our fortunes improving by the beginning of next week. Plenty of patience required before we feel the true effects on a local level but things are a changing in the upper atmosphere as I alluded to yesterday.

[Gavin Hannah]

I'll be updating the Eurasian Snow and Ice thread on Sunday if I can. Those figures BFTV posted above are interesting to say the least and the comparisons will be interesting. But it does tie in with what I've been expecting which is "trend to average".  The Ice expanded so quickly at the start of the season that we were bound to run out of "easy to freeze" ocean. Partly because it's still early in the season and partly because SSTs are high in areas still.

 

If the Ice growth had been at an average rate comparable to recent years I wouldn't be surprised if everyone threw in the towel early for winter, but the rapid and early Ice growth, coupled with the extremely high snow cover for the early season is something of an unknown quantity in terms of the effects 'down the road' as it were.