Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[Met4Cast]

How will the snow cover of September effect things? Cohen refers only to October snowfall increases, rather than late September.

 

Do we have to disregard the snowfall in September? It's my understanding that it's not quantity of snowfall, but how quickly the snow cover increases during October that plays into things?

[summer blizzard]

How will the snow cover of September effect things? Cohen refers only to October snowfall increases, rather than late September. Do we have to disregard the snowfall in September? It's my understanding that it's not quantity of snowfall, but how quickly the snow cover increases during October that plays into things?

Its the snow south of 60N which matters anyway.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Additionally, Cohen probably stipulated October because in a normal year this is when the first snowfalls tend to happen. We are ahead of schedule this year which can only be a positive, people need to relax.

[sebastiaan1973]

Yes, that's true. Please remind it all about the physical point of view. Nature doens't think in terms of 'months'. So the end of september is great.

 

Indeed it's about the snowfall south of 60N, please take a look at his picture. There is quite extense snowcover south of 60N.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2013/ims2013275.gif

Edited October 3, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[Yarmy]

Although there's a lot of moaning on the MOD threads about the big Euro High, but it's actually doing us a favour (aside from giving us pleasant weather!) if Cohen is correct. If it can stick around for a couple of weeks the snowcover will build and importantly it shouldn't be as vulnerable to melt back later in the month.

[be cause]

Santa has arrived in Longyearbyen !

 

 

[Interitus]

but also a growing amount of red negative anomaly in places 2013274.png blue or red which will win this October?! 

 

Tempted to look into the background of this anomaly chart a little more, it's interesting because the -ve anomalies are in the places which would normally get the snow earliest close to the Arctic Ocean. It's almost as though there is enough warmth from the ice-free sea surface to reduce the coastal Arctic snow for the moment, whilst the extra moisture enhances the snow further inland to the south.

[Yarmy]

Santa has arrived in Longyearbyen !

 

 

 

 

The panoramic webcam isn't working for me today:

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

 

Anyone else?

[SomeLikeItHot]

Yes, that's true. Please remind it all about the physical point of view. Nature doens't think in terms of 'months'. So the end of september is great.

 

Indeed it's about the snowfall south of 60N, please take a look at his picture. There is quite extense snowcover south of 60N.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2013/ims2013275.gif

Cohen's paper says.

"In Figure 1 we plot the October SAI for Eurasian

SCE equatorward of 60°N correlated with the following

winter AO. The correlation between the two time series is

∼0.86."

Most of the cover to end of Sept this year was North of 60N although there is a bith south.

 

Last year there was less south of 60N but much bigger difference North of 60N

 

Which by the end of Oct made it to here.

 

It took until the 12th to get about to where we were end of Sept 2013

 

Which by end of Oct was here

 

SO just saying we kept 10 days ahead of last year where would we end up? (ie what was snow like Nov 12th 2012.)

 

Which is a bigger difference that the starting point. So really I dont think that there is any reason why the SAI won't be as high or higher than last year. If we were just to stay the same 10 day period ahead of the track last year. Even if we were to match 31st of October 2012 this year, That would still seem to be a big advance, because in absolute terms there difference south of 60N isn't that great, most of the difference is north of 60N and it anything that base probably gives a better chance of growth south of 60N in october.

Edited October 3, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Gavin Hannah]

The siberian side of the arctic is looking very gd. The north american side is below average but like every year, its down to weather patterns. I believe northern hemispher snow cover is in the positive overall, which is the crucial thing.

We need good buildup of snow and for it to advance west this month.

[Reefseeker]

The panoramic webcam isn't working for me today:

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

 

Anyone else?

 

Same here, can't get the Spitzbergen one either so must be a general problem over there - perhaps it's snow junkies like us crashing their network at the first sight of snow!

[Yarmy]

Same here, can't get the Spitzbergen one either so must be a general problem over there - perhaps it's snow junkies like us crashing their network at the first sight of snow!

 

Yeah, looking into it, the webcam bit of the page is in an iframe and its URL is...

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net

 

...which is currently unavailable. Hope it's up again before the Polar Night starts!

[Norway Nut]

Yeah, looking into it, the webcam bit of the page is in an iframe and its URL is...

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net

 

...which is currently unavailable. Hope it's up again before the Polar Night starts!

 

Sorry, but it doesn't work during the hours of darkness.  Nor does the one in the Swiss Alps.

[Yarmy]

Sorry, but it doesn't work during the hours of darkness.  Nor does the one in the Swiss Alps.

 

That's what I meant though. I hope it's up and running before the daylight runs out at the end of the month so we can actually see something.

[Gavin Hannah]

I can't delete the image lol, Never mind, that was still yesterdays IMS image.....lol.

Edited October 3, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[bionicman101]

The webcam for Longyearbyen is back up and running.  Some great images from there watching the sun set on the snow covered mountains.

[Yarmy]

The webcam for Longyearbyen is back up and running.  Some great images from there watching the sun set on the snow covered mountains.

 

Yes, and if you use this link you can avoid all the adverts and stuff at the bottom:

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net

[Gaz1985]

I can't delete the image lol, Never mind, that was still yesterdays IMS image.....lol.

 

That snow around the Ural mountains will be all gone by early next week it looks like temperatures returning to double figures in that areafurther east it will stay much colder

Edited October 3, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Yarmy]

That snow around the Ural mountains will be all gone by early next week it looks like temperatures returning to double figures in that areafurther east it will stay much colder

 

Are you going there on your hols?

[Radiating Dendrite]

No he just likes to occasionally wum

[Yarmy]

No he just likes to occasionally wum

 

Occasionally? 

[MR EXTREMES]

No he just likes to occasionally wum

hes right though grrrr been boring need a bounce back after this crappy euro high.

[Isolated Frost]

Much of Eastern Ukraine seeing sleet and snow tonight; 2c at Donetsk with light rain, and -2c at Moscow. 

Noted also that the 12z ECMWF brings a deep surface low with cooler upper air temperatures for much of Scandinavia next week, whilst we (relatively) sizzle under the nearby high pressure; -6c's and -8c's across Finland and the Baltic States for d7- one to look out for.

[bobbydog]

That snow around the Ural mountains will be all gone by early next week it looks like temperatures returning to double figures in that areafurther east it will stay much colder

 

 

just to put that one to bed.....

 

 

m/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=lapse

 

 

negative double figures maybe....

[feb1991blizzard]

Much of Eastern Ukraine seeing sleet and snow tonight; 2c at Donetsk with light rain, and -2c at Moscow. 

Noted also that the 12z ECMWF brings a deep surface low with cooler upper air temperatures for much of Scandinavia next week, whilst we (relatively) sizzle under the nearby high pressure; -6c's and -8c's across Finland and the Baltic States for d7- one to look out for.

 

 

Lets hope the 0zs follow suite.

 

Any warmth in October unlikely to trouble me now, may feel uncomfortable if the suns out but I will happily take that now, im looking at the bigger picture - snow cover build up in Eastern Europe.

Edited October 3, 2013 by feb1991blizzard