Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[stewfox]

The latest value: 5,019,336 km²â€‚(September 23, 2013) 

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

Sea Ice making steady and significant gains for the time of year.

 

 

The sea ice is 2/3 million below the long term average and is making small gains.

 

I also thought all that extra open water particularly on the western side of the artic may help with snow accumulation over Russia.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif

[Gavin Hannah]

The sea ice is 2/3 million below the long term average and is making small gains.

 

I also thought all that extra open water particularly on the western side of the artic may help with snow accumulation over Russia.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif

 

 

But we are only in the tail end of September.  If you look at the graphs of the averages and of recent years, the refreeze doesn't kick in to high gear until at the earliest, mid october.

[DAVID SNOW]

The sea ice is 2/3 million below the long term average and is making small gains.

 

I also thought all that extra open water particularly on the western side of the artic may help with snow accumulation over Russia.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif

"below the long term average"

Would that be the one starting in 1979? What a young planet we live on......

[Gavin Hannah]

Came across this article dated 3 Sep.  

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/ice-delays-supply-barge-for-western-arctic-communities-1.1397771

 

It highlights how Ice has been a problem for transporting supplies to remote communities in Canada this year.

[Isolated Frost]

October Eurasian SAI in km2 w/ Aug-Sep (tbc) AO analogues + (October AO value)

2010: 9.13 (neutral)

1996: 7.50 (neutral)

2008: 7.51 (positive)

2007: 7.63 (neutral)

2003: 9.48 (negative)

2002: 11.15 (negative)

2000: 8.23 (neutral)

1997: 6.24 (negative)

1993: 8.79 (negative)

1990: 7.00 (positive)

1985: 8.62 (positive)

1984: 8.93 (neutral)

 

Then aligned in terms of October Eurasian SAI

2002: 11.15 (negative)

2003: 9.48 (negative)

2010: 9.13 (neutral)

1984: 8.93 (neutral)

1993: 8.79 (negative)

1985: 8.62 (positive)

2000: 8.23 (neutral)

2007: 7.63 (neutral)

2008: 7.51 (positive)

1996: 7.50 (neutral)

1990: 7.00 (positive)

1997: 6.24 (negative)

 

Positive AO in October linked with lower October SAI- explains the lack of Western European cold anomalies during December/January during the years in question.

 

Aug-Sep-Oct AO values have a link w/ October SAI; generally a NEU-NEU-POS AO favors colder Februaries and average Decembers and Januaries. A NEU-NEU-NEG favors mild Februaries. Whilst a NEU-NEU-NEU, favors a cold start and milder end.

 

Composites

So far, we have had a NEU (Aug) and a NEU/NEG (Sep), it looks to be favoring NEU-NEG (1996, 2010)- instead of the NEU-NEU (1997, 1990, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1993, 1984, 2003, 2002). We'll see the September value in a week or so.

 

NEU-NEU-POS AO values (1985, 1990 and 2008) generally favor cold February temperatures for Western Europe.

NEU-NEU-NEG AO values (1993, 1997, 2002 and 2003) generally favor milder February temperatures for Western Europe.

NEU-NEU-NEU AO values (1984, 2000 and 2007) give cooler Winter temperatures on average, with few extremes.

 

The link I think I've found is that (when added to the neutral-neutral AO values prior to October):

positive AO values in October usually provide cold Februaries for Western Europe- regardless of SAI.

neutral AO values in October usually provide average Februaries for Western Europe- though the larger the October SAI, the cooler it is likely to be.

negative AO values in October usually provide milder Februaries for Western Europe- unless there is a exceptionally large increase in the SAI.

 

I'll continue this tomorrow (tired as hell atm), but the link seems to be that Arctic Oscillation during August-October not only correlate very well to conditions in the mid-latitudes during the meterological Winter, but that the October Eurasian SAI can alter and disturb this signal.

 

November looks cold regardless of the October SAI and AO- though different analogues will provide different solutions; will try and explain more tomorrow, night ..

[Gavin Hannah]

Good effort there!! 

 

If the AO is the main driver behind the synoptics for winter over west europe, then from what I can gather, the SAI would be the augmenting driver.

 

Where do SSW's factor into this research?

[Interitus]

There is some confusion here regarding the snow advance index SAI - this is specifically the rate of the snow advance in October south of 60°N which is different to the snow cover extent SCE which includes Arctic snow covered areas. The work by Cohen is clear on this, that while there was a correlation between winter AO and SCE there was a greater correlation with SAI

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf

 

 

[Interitus]

Good effort there!! 

 

If the AO is the main driver behind the synoptics for winter over west europe, then from what I can gather, the SAI would be the augmenting driver.

 

Where do SSW's factor into this research?

 

See the diagram on previous page posted by sebastiaan1973

 

The snow cover aids cooling, strengthens Siberian high, weakens and deflects tropospheric flow, increases vertical wave flux, weakens stratosphere vortex leading to SSW, feeds back in to weaken troposphere giving -AO.

[Gavin Hannah]

 The latest value: 5,086,095 km²â€‚(September 24, 2013)

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

A massive jump on yesterdays figure!

[Isolated Frost]

Cheers Interitus, will edit tonight. Is there an available SAI index to observe though?

[Interitus]

Cheers Interitus, will edit tonight. Is there an available SAI index to observe though?

 

Don't think it has been made public the same as for the winter forecasts they produce because it is used commercially - he works for this company http://www.aer.com/

[Gavin Hannah]

Don't think it has been made public the same as for the winter forecasts they produce because it is used commercially - he works for this company http://www.aer.com/

 

http://www.aer.com/industry/energy/energy-trader-products-and-services/seasonal-forecast#Sci_Seasonal_Forecast

 

 

This company seem to have a very good seasonal model for LRF.  They claim to have achieved 100% success in the past 4 years... Interesting. 

[Mark Neal.]

http://www.aer.com/industry/energy/energy-trader-products-and-services/seasonal-forecast#Sci_Seasonal_Forecast

 

 

This company seem to have a very good seasonal model for LRF.  They claim to have achieved 100% success in the past 4 years... Interesting. 

Is this a subscription service, or do they offer free samples of what the model they have shows?

[Methuselah]

http://www.aer.com/industry/energy/energy-trader-products-and-services/seasonal-forecast#Sci_Seasonal_Forecast

 

 

This company seem to have a very good seasonal model for LRF.  They claim to have achieved 100% success in the past 4 years... Interesting. 

So does Piers Corbyn! 

[cobbett]

 The latest value: 5,086,095 km²â€‚(September 24, 2013)

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

A massive jump on yesterdays figure!

 

I know very little regarding this area - but doesn't less Sea Ice equate to colder winters. Comparing the ice extent from this time last year shows a big increase but according to what I've read  this isn't great if you want a cold winter

[Interitus]

I know very little regarding this area - but doesn't less Sea Ice equate to colder winters. Comparing the ice extent from this time last year shows a big increase but according to what I've read  this isn't great if you want a cold winter

 

Yes this is a possibility that has been considered quite widely for a while and is the subject of more recently published work by Cohen - the abstract can be read and full paper downloaded here - http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.html

But though the ice is quite a lot more extensive than last year it is still a long way below the long term average and in keeping with the downward trend and levels of the past decade so no particular reason why the same mechanisms couldn't apply this winter.

[cobbett]

Yes this is a possibility that has been considered quite widely for a while and is the subject of more recently published work by Cohen - the abstract can be read and full paper downloaded here - http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.html

But though the ice is quite a lot more extensive than last year it is still a long way below the long term average and in keeping with the downward trend and levels of the past decade so no particular reason why the same mechanisms couldn't apply this winter.

Ah ok so still down on the long term average - that was the bit I didn't grasp ! Thanks for the link

[Radiating Dendrite]

Ah ok so still down on the long term average - that was the bit I didn't grasp ! Thanks for the link

 

Miles down as well!

[Reefseeker]

Snow seems to have been falling lightly today in Spitzbergen to give a dusting http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php.

[snowking]

The trouble is, as has been discussed previously, whilst there may be some linkage with overall sea ice extent, it is not an exact relationship.

 

Here is an example of two Novembers which preceded colder winters.

 

1978:

 

 

2012:

 

 

A huge different in sea ice extent - over 2 million square kilometres! However, both produced cold winters.

 

The paper which has been flying around recently suggesting the possibility of ice extent across the Barents sea having a role - well certainly a possibility but then again when you look at the difference in the two years above, the theory begins to fall a little flatter (though admittedly the idea for this particular hypothesis was more October based).

 

I think what we have to look at is whether ice extent is a cause or a result...and on present evidence I would argue the latter. But even as a result it could still prove part of the overall mechanism. I would suggest though that it is part of a very long chain reaction.

 

SK

[Iceni]

Ah ok so still down on the long term average - that was the bit I didn't grasp ! Thanks for the link

 

So what's so 'long term' about a 35 year period? We've only been able to accurately measure Arctic sea ice since 1978 when the first satellite was launched to do so.

 

When they first recorded the ice, it could quite easily have been at the peak of 70-year cycle and now we're seeing its nadir.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Iceni

[Methuselah]

Neither linkage is absolute? But, since the Sun's current 'sleep' ensued, we now have a double whammy: record minimum ice-extend and Solar-induced meandering of the PFJ?

 

And, I'd bet that even this combination will not absolutely link to NH weather patterns... 

[NorthernRab]

Neither linkage is absolute? But, since the Sun's current 'sleep' ensued, we now have a double whammy: record minimum ice-extend and Solar-induced meandering of the PFJ?

 

And, I'd bet that even this combination will not absolutely link to NH weather patterns... 

 

I'd rather my life depended on a weak, broken chain hanging in the balance than no chain at all 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The trouble is, as has been discussed previously, whilst there may be some linkage with overall sea ice extent, it is not an exact relationship.

 

Here is an example of two Novembers which preceded colder winters.

 

1978:

 

N_197811_extn.png

 

2012:

 

N_201211_extn.png

 

A huge different in sea ice extent - over 2 million square kilometres! However, both produced cold winters.

 

The paper which has been flying around recently suggesting the possibility of ice extent across the Barents sea having a role - well certainly a possibility but then again when you look at the difference in the two years above, the theory begins to fall a little flatter (though admittedly the idea for this particular hypothesis was more October based).

 

I think what we have to look at is whether ice extent is a cause or a result...and on present evidence I would argue the latter. But even as a result it could still prove part of the overall mechanism. I would suggest though that it is part of a very long chain reaction.

 

SK

 

To be fair, nobody has claimed an exact linkage, and your example can be done with absolutely any teleconnection, doesn't prove anything either way. For example, December 2010 and December 2011 were both during La Nina events, yet one was 5.4C below the 61-90 average, the other 1.3C above average. Just demonstrates that a vast number of factors need to be taken into account when attempting to produce a long range forecast.

 

The paper/s flying around have a lot more to them than simple correlations related to the Barents sea too. They have a physical basis which goes towards explaining the relationship based on both observational and model data

 

Have a read

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/19375/html

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

There are plenty more papers out there if you'd like them?

[Interitus]

The trouble is, as has been discussed previously, whilst there may be some linkage with overall sea ice extent, it is not an exact relationship.

 

Here is an example of two Novembers which preceded colder winters.

 

1978:

 

N_197811_extn.png

 

2012:

 

N_201211_extn.png

 

A huge different in sea ice extent - over 2 million square kilometres! However, both produced cold winters.

 

The paper which has been flying around recently suggesting the possibility of ice extent across the Barents sea having a role - well certainly a possibility but then again when you look at the difference in the two years above, the theory begins to fall a little flatter (though admittedly the idea for this particular hypothesis was more October based).

 

I think what we have to look at is whether ice extent is a cause or a result...and on present evidence I would argue the latter. But even as a result it could still prove part of the overall mechanism. I would suggest though that it is part of a very long chain reaction.

 

SK

 

This doesn't invalidate the 'warm Arctic, cold continents' theory. In fact your choice of winter 1978/9 is interesting because there was a SSW on around 22nd February but this was after the coldest weather and also the lowest AO/NAO values.

Clearly SSW don't depend on lower ice levels, and don't always result in cold in any case, and In the same way low ice in the past decade hasn't led to extreme cold weather every winter such as after the previous record melt in 2007.

As BFTV says the overall situation is more complicated, but the theories go some way to suggesting underlying mechanisms as well as just mere linkages. The point is that the research into SAI has shown a very high correlation with the following winter AO, and that this in turn may be enhanced by increased water vapour from an ice-free Arctic.