Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[LincolnSnowstorm]

That comparison is like night and day lol..  the Siberian side of the Ice pack def seems to be the coldest atm.  

 

Having said that, todays image shows some rather decent Melting of the Ice. Where the Ice pack touched land yesterday, it's retreated somewhat. 

 

The freshly frozen ice around the edges would still appear to be susceptible to the weather.

 

snow.JPG

well spotted with the ice melt , I thought we had turned a corner with the ice but its seems its not quite there yet. 

[Gaz1985]

 heres that  wonderful  October 2012 SAI in action, but with recent signals of whats ahead I'm pretty sure Oct 13 will not be far behind.

 

How do you know? have you got a crystal ball to predict the future?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

How do you know? have you got a crystal ball to predict the future?

Ok I went over the top with the 'pretty sure' especially for the last frame of my animation so  I downgrade that statement to gut feeling  

Do you have any thoughts/gut feeling on the state of the SAI for the coming month?

[Gaz1985]

Ok I went over the top with the 'pretty sure' especially for the last frame of my animation so  I downgrade that statement to gut feeling  

Do you have any thoughts/gut feeling on the state of the SAI for the coming month?

 

Well as a mildie I just hope it doesn't creep further towards the UK!

[Relativistic]

Well as a mildie I just hope it doesn't creep further towards the UK!

Well it happens every year so you're screwed.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Well it happens every year so you're screwed.

 

Well it happens every year so you're screwed.

lucky for me there is enough differences between different years to keep the progress watch interesting.

[Isolated Frost]

PV, most important feature of our winter in my opinion (amongst many others though), looks very active, which for me is a positive looking at composites. If there is any time you want a strong, active vortex with cold energy just spilling out, it's now.

 

cold arctic high across the Russian arctic should help the ice recover, and large snow events across eastern Siberia and arctic Canada likely; also a potent N/NW flow across Iceland and Britain

 

sharp -AO if you've ever seen one

[LincolnSnowstorm]

 

PV, most important feature of our winter in my opinion (amongst many others though), looks very active, which for me is a positive looking at composites. If there is any time you want a strong, active vortex with cold energy just spilling out, it's now.

 

 

cold arctic high across the Russian arctic should help the ice recover, and large snow events across eastern Siberia and arctic Canada likely; also a potent N/NW flow across Iceland and Britain

 

 

sharp -AO if you've ever seen one

Thanks for that IF  

looks like no harm to the N.H. snow and ice chances in those charts thats for sure.

Just need it warmed,weakened, split up and displaced in a few months for the coldies!

 

   

Edited September 13, 2013 by LincolnSnowstorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

That comparison is like night and day lol..  the Siberian side of the Ice pack def seems to be the coldest atm.  

 

Having said that, todays image shows some rather decent Melting of the Ice. Where the Ice pack touched land yesterday, it's retreated somewhat. 

 

The freshly frozen ice around the edges would still appear to be susceptible to the weather.

 

snow.JPG

very little change on the latest image, must be ready to build by next week

(todays)  

(yesterdays)

Edited September 13, 2013 by LincolnSnowstorm

[sebastiaan1973]

A new article by Cohen. In my opinion quite interesting!

 

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aer-scientists-uncover-link-between-declining-arctic-sea-ice-and-colder-winters-2013-09-12

 

The winter of 2012/2013 continueda string of severe winters across the Northern Hemisphere continents. While coupled models predict that warming due to anthropogenic forcing would begreatest in the boreal winter season, over the past two to three decades, the warming trend has been muted in the winter season over some Northern Hemisphere land areas, while warming has continued in the other three seasons (Cohen et al., 2012b). Cohen et al. (2012a) proposed that sea ice loss has contributed to moistening of the Arctic, which has resulted in more extensive snow cover in the fall that in turn forced a dynamical response in the atmosphere favorable to a negative winter AO. The enhanced snow accumulation is also consistent with the idea that low sea ice and warm temperatures lead to enhanced snow accumulation and iceage inception (Stokes, 1955; Ewing and Donn, 1956; Le Treut and Ghil, 1983;

Gildor and Tziperman, 2003).

 

September 2012 sea ice melt achieved a new record in the satellite era, followed by a near-record rapid advance in snow cover in October. A statistical model using snow cover as its mainpredictor accurately forecasted below normal temperatures across northern Eurasia and the United States during winter 2013. Furthermore, the large melt of Arctic sea ice in summer/fall 2012,the rapid advance of snow cover across Eurasia in October 2012, and the predominantly negative AO phase during winter 2012/2013 may all be associated with severe winter weather across the northern continents. The PCHs show that high geopotential heights and a warm Arctic dominated the period of October 2012 to March 2013 (Figure 6),with episodic pulsing or strengthening of the positive PCH anomalies (or, equivalently, temperature anomalies).

 

Figures 3 and 6 show that low sea ice, extensive snow cover, and a negative winter AO share the warm Arctic/cold continents pattern and are linked with increased atmospheric blockingand extreme winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical models produced universally poor temperature forecasts for winter 2013. We hypothesize that the erroneous predicted model warmth across the northern continents and sea ice retreat may be related. Furthermore the maximum in temperature anomalies over the Barents Sea, which extends deep into the continental interior in the dynamical model seasonal forecasts, may offer a cautionary tale regarding a similar pattern in climate change projections. The strong coupling between seaice and atmosphere, possibly via convective feedback in the dynamical models, may disrupt the coupling between a warm Arctic and cold continents found in observations. These lessons from seasonal prediction indicate that rapid response of sea ice to external forcing, as expressed in past abrupt climate change (Gildor and Tziperman, 2003), maylead to future surprises in the Arctic, thus increasing the uncertainties in future climate projections for the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Edited September 14, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[bobbydog]

hello....

 

 

yesterday...

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by bobbydog

[Gavin Hannah]

hello....

 

 

yesterday...

 

 

 

That's a nice dumping of white stuff.  Sea Ice extent up to 8.26 million sq KM.  http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Edited September 15, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Gavin Hannah]

Here's last years chart for this date, for comparison.

 

 

[Nights King]

Here's last years chart for this date, for comparison.

 

 

ims2012259_asiaeurope.gif

 

That's quite a large difference especially looking at the ice extent.

 

Isn't it better to see rapid growth of snow cover in October and not this early in season?

[Isolated Frost]

That's quite a large difference especially looking at the ice extent.Isn't it better to see rapid growth of snow cover in October and not this early in season?

Sep-Oct-Nov all good; I think this'll promote Nern blocking come Nov.

[Gavin Hannah]

Indeed, the earlier and bigger the gains, the better. Better to have a white Nrth Hemp as early as possible so we're not playing catch up come December.

[Nights King]

Sep-Oct-Nov all good; I think this'll promote Nern blocking come Nov.

 

That's good news

 

Certainly well above last year at this stage

[sebastiaan1973]

That's quite a large difference especially looking at the ice extent.

 

Isn't it better to see rapid growth of snow cover in October and not this early in season?

 

According to Cohen's paper I showed yesterday it's better to have extended snowfall in october. How more the snow extends in october the better. So I my opinion the less snow in september the better, in this way october starts with a low starting point.

Edited September 15, 2013 by sebastiaan1973

[Isolated Frost]

I think Sebastiaan/Cohen have a strong point; but mid-Sept growth is a positive for me, looking at recent yrs- I think November looks a good bet for early blocking on the AO/Ice/QBO comps- snow advance accompanied by shifting dynamics, and an increasingly weak sun, come the equinox, snow cover becomes increasingly relevant.

I think the Strat/Tech threads are becoming increasingly important now- with a big focus on teleconnections and snow/ice.

[lorenzo]

Have not read the full paper yet, but what I have got so far is the storming correlation with negative AO. The loss of sea ice, a warm arctic, increasing available moisture, hence the huge SAI gains. Will be an important paper for Winter. Great finds Sebastiaan.

 

It also throws a curveball at ENSO early in the paper, quite a lofty claim, seeking to assert that this 'mode' over-rides the classic driver in the tropics. Who is to say this is not right, esp if married with what we already see on FU Berlin from the Strat. monitoring. Inclined to partially agree, although a strong La Nina . El Nino stil has clear impact, will be interesting to compare in the next strong event.

 

Nice chart time line of the Polar Cap heights also. This thread will certainly be one to watch as October unfolds..

[Gavin Hannah]

The sun is currently flat-lining with regards its output atm.  The sunspots are almost all gone and that can only bode well for the arctic as we get deeper into autumn.  Unlike last autumn (with a higher sunspot count and solar activity) the cold has remained in the Arctic this year and it will only get colder as the days get shorter. 

Edited September 15, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[summer blizzard]

I think we need to look deeper at the paper. I mean if we go from well below average in late Sep to slightly above average at the end of Oct that may on paper be a bigger increase than going from slightly above in late Sep to well above in late Oct.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Apologies if this has already been posted. August snow cover was above the 81-10 average this year (but below the 71-00 average in the graph)

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

Largest August snow cover since 1998, markedly different from recent years.

 

[be cause]

 

 

May we have an all blue winter ...

Edited September 15, 2013 by be cause

[Summer Sun]

Apologies if this has already been posted. August snow cover was above the 81-10 average this year (but below the 71-00 average in the graph)

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

Largest August snow cover since 1998, markedly different from recent years.

 

 

Would this mean anything for the UK in winter or not?