South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>

[Methuselah]

As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!  

[john pike]

Actually I think that the METO applied caution and always suggested that there was a chance of unsettled weather, temporarily, in parts of England and Wales right back at the start of the week - and it was clear from the computer models at the time that this was possible as a shortwave, disrupting SE towards southern Britain became to come under the radar.

 

 The overall pattern looked rather more optimistic back then than reality now suggests, but a straightforward blanket dry and warm weekend was never a given, or stated to be one. All that has simply happened is that this possibility of showers has increased and intensified, in line with the sort of micro developments that can happen in this country.  Its not the first time it has happened and it won't be the last time either.

 

So I don't think it is a case of being forgiving at all - it is simply down to how one wants to choose to interpret the predictions. Especially with a Bank Holiday at stake. Afterall, as stated, the chances of showers was picked up as the models began to move into a reliable time period so it shouldn't be a total surprise...

 

hi tam

 

i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

 

posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

 

the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

 

fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

[Captain Shortwave]

As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!  

 

All models are showing north easterlies beyond day 6, I'm am struggling to withhold my excitement

Edited August 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

[john pike]

 

strewth

[Anvils in the Sky]

Evening all,

 

Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

 

All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

 

MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....

 

EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now!

Edited August 22, 2013 by Anvils in the Sky

[Iceni]

I only do the ironing if it's raining. So I got through a huge pile of it today.

 

Then got soaked looking for the cat who's been missing a few days — crawling through dripping undergrowth calling "Fluffy!"

 

Didn't find him. But then he walks in an hour later dry as a bone and eats his dinner. What you'd call a bummer of a day. Still glad the cat's back.

[Kentish Man]

hi tam

 

i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

 

posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

 

the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

 

fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

 

 

Looking back on the thread it is worth pointing out your post re Sunday night's fax charts didn't pick up todays rain which by my calculation means the error was between 72 and  96 hours. In fairness to the Met Office it seems Monday nights fax charts did pick up the change while I am pretty sure the GFS didn't until the day before which is a plus mark for UKMO.

[john pike]

Evening all,

 

Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

 

All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

 

MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....

 

EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now!

 

Evening all,

 

Street lights are on. Solar lights just starting to come on. And it's not long after 8. What a difference to two months ago!

 

All I can say about today is.......wet. Finally stopped raining around 3, and a very few glimmers of sunshine in the hours after that. Weather station showing just under half an inch of rain fell today. So this has been the wettest day for quite some time, that's for sure. I know it's a bit of a cliché during dry summers, but the garden really does need it.

 

MetO saying a max of 29° tomorrow in their London/SE forecast.....

 

EDIT: Sorry, John, just seen you're also mentioning those sorts of temps for tomorrow too. I feel slightly more confident about them now!

hi anvil

 

no problem mate

 

shame about the rest of the fax charts

 

fwiw i am still not certain about sunday

 

theres a possibilty the low predicted could be further south

 

i hope the charts resolve that better tomorrow

 

edit

 

why do i keep getting what i am replying to twice?

Edited August 22, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

 

hi tam

 

i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

 

posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

 

the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

 

fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

 

 

Looking back on the thread it is worth pointing out your post re Sunday night's fax charts didn't pick up todays rain which by my calculation means the error was between 72 and  96 hours. In fairness to the Met Office it seems Monday nights fax charts did pick up the change while I am pretty sure the GFS didn't until the day before which is a plus mark for UKMO.

 

 

hi kentish

 

yeh about right but i mean the heatwave not the local conditions

 

problem with gfs which people follow in fi it shows no troughs etc

 

thats why ukmo is normally the most reliable source

 

mind saying that most charts are prone to errors

 

thats what keeps us coming back as it would be a tad boring if they were always right

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

some sharp showers to the north of the region

 

re the weather today here it stayed dry

 

with bits of sunshine as well

[Crepuscular Ray]

In my bit of n/w London, there's been rain on and off all day, after fairly heavy rain for a couple of hours overnight.

 

It also got dark depressingly early because of the heavy cloud.

[Jan_Bromley]

Hello all.

 

We all know the charts love to tease us and here is another example. Can't really believe anything when there is a threat of incursions and troughs. Chin up peeps. It's been a

 

fabulous summer and now we are getting typically British weather. Hey ho

[john pike]

Hello all.

 

We all know the charts love to tease us and here is another example. Can't really believe anything when there is a threat of incursions and troughs. Chin up peeps. It's been a

 

fabulous summer and now we are getting typically British weather. Hey ho

hi jan

 

i always say

 

the charts do not control the weather

 

the people i feel sorry for are the people who may have booked

 

to go away in the uk on hearing the press releases recently

 

lets hope sunday and monday make up for saturday

[Jan_Bromley]

Hello john,

 

Yes i agree, but it's a bank holiday..........we should all know by now how temperamental they are

 

Any luck on finding your perfect house yet? x

[Crepuscular Ray]

the charts do not control the weather

 

Blimey - don't tell anyone in the model thread!!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

As per usual, the Triangle will miss any storms!  

 Yeah, but I'm at a flipping dog show on Saturday...any chance I could get the show committee to move it to Friday?   Waterproofs and Khyam already in the van

[john pike]

hi cp

 

i think i will keep that between us then

 

heres what ecm show for sunday lunchtime

 

 

rain or no rain

 

that is the question

 

monday lunchtime

 

 

 

looks ok for now

Edited August 22, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

Hello john,

 

Yes i agree, but it's a bank holiday..........we should all know by now how temperamental they are

 

Any luck on finding your perfect house yet? x

 

hi jan

 

going back on saturday for a week

 

for round 2

 

got a couple to look at and i will let you know if anything happens

[john pike]

monday

 

a slightly breezy north east flow

 

looks dry with sunny intervals

 

poss cloudy in the east north east but even there there should still be some sun

 

temps around 23-24 degrees

 

so at present very useable weather

[MeteoF]

Weird, second shower in the last hour with absolutely no cloud overhead and no obvious culprit anywhere to be seen (there's a near full moon).  I am fully aware of the "detached precipitation" phenomena but this is strangest example I have ever seen, the only cloud is the odd patch of very well fragmented alto-cumulus, there's no wind and it's not even close to being overhead!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Local BBC forecast has got possibly 30C for places in the London area tomorrow, wet for Saturday and a mix of sunshine and cloud Sunday and Monday. 

 

National forecast has 26 for London, heavy rain including thundery stuff for Saturday and then quiet for Sunday and Monday.

 

Don't they work from the same data?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Weird, second shower in the last hour with absolutely no cloud overhead and no obvious culprit anywhere to be seen (there's a near full moon).  I am fully aware of the "detached precipitation" phenomena but this is strangest example I have ever seen, the only cloud is the odd patch of very well fragmented alto-cumulus, there's no wind and it's not even close to being overhead!

The IR satellite image has a tiny bit of thin cloud over you, but you're right, it's odd.

[john pike]

tuesday

 

north westerly flow

 

should stay dry

 

temps around 22-24 degrees

 

front to our north west may give some late afternoon showers but too far away to be certain of that yet

[Tamara]

hi tam

 

i think too much notice was taken of fi charts posted in the mod thread

 

posted a while back i was not convinced of the heatwave and the fax charts picked

 

the unsettled weather as soon as it came into range

 

fi is after 120 and its always safe to keep to that to avoid disappointment

I think too many people read what they wanted to read John  There were enough caveats mentioned by enough people to provide a realistic enough interpretation