South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>

[Mark Neal.]

Skies got dark here again! 

[RUSH]

afternoooon alll

 

 

rain stoped ,quiet warm and a bit humid ,but thats  ok still got the work done in the garden ,the rain was warm so did not mind ,now ive got to finnishs off the garden ,bugger,wanted to let the rest of the day slip by But i cant lol.and to top it off ive got to go to work for 3 hours on poets day not right sumfing wrong there.... 

[Biensie]

I think your call is right, as it looks currently like less rain on Sunday - do you have a village hall??

 

No, but I have now added to my many purchases a Gazebo (with sides).... Might have been cheaper to hire the village hall! You are so not funny!

[Keraunic]

Oooh....thanks Coast. (I cannot do quotes on phone) I will certainly post and let yyou all know id we get any storms.

[Coast]

Oooh....thanks Coast. (I cannot do quotes on phone) I will certainly post and let yyou all know id we get any storms.

 

:lol: Modern technology eh Grace?! I'll be pleased to hear if you do get a rumble later  

[john pike]

Cor the suns out here :-)

[Coast]

Cor the suns out here :-)

 

Make the most of it John, it looks like Mac and wellies this weekend! (Gazebo already dusted off at home!)

[john pike]

Hi coast

It was good why it lasted

Gone now

Got a feeling sunday and monday might be ok

No promises though

Oh suns out again :-)

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice day, some sun, warm and very little wind. Lovely.

But where are my thunderstorms? 

[Coast]

But where are my thunderstorms? 

 

Still in transit CS:

 

[Jan_Bromley]

Good afternoon lovely people,

 

Well after a very decent rainfall last night, the morning has been grey and miserable. But, the sun is now coming out which is lovely. The perfect balance.

[Methuselah]

Nice day, some sun, warm and very little wind. Lovely.

But where are my thunderstorms? 

The same place they always end up...Lincolnshire?

[Coast]

The same place they always end up...Lincolnshire?

 

Turn your shield down then! 

[Coast]

 

Rain may blight bank holiday

 

Rain could blight the August bank holiday with weather forecasters warning of a particularly unpredictable weekend.

 

With around 14 million motorists expected to take to the roads, families are being advised to not only pack a bucket and spade, but also an umbrella. “The weekend is so uncertain at the moment. It does look as if there are going to be heavy bursts of rain over the weekend, the big question is where,†a spokesman for the Weather Centre said. “August is traditionally the wettest month of the summer, not many people realise that.â€

 

Tomorrow looks the most promising day of the weekend, with fine and dry weather predicted at least until the evening with temperatures reaching 86F (27C). By Saturday it is looking more of a mixed bag with the south and west likely to have a reasonable day, although showers have not been ruled out. But the eastern half of the country and the midlands are more likely to see heavy rain, with the weather generally being cooler reaching around 75F (24C).

 

A similar picture is likely for the remainder of the weekend with showers possible in the north and south east. Despite the Highways Agency having suspended 151 miles of roadworks, Inrix – a traffic monitoring organisation – predicted a sticky staycation, especially in the south east, where traffic will be 35 per cent above average, while bottlenecks will start to appear in the midlands by mid afternoon. Train companies are also gearing up for an increase in passenger journeys of up to 30 per cent to some parts of the country over the Bank Holiday, with millions of journeys expected to be made by rail as people head out to visit popular attractions and some of the country’s seaside resorts.

 

However despite the mixed weather forecast there is increasing evidence that many Britons have decided on a staycation this weekend. Hotel searches for Blackpool are 83 per cent up on last year compared with 33 per cent for Barcelona, according to Hotels.com. A similar picture has been reported by Travelodge, which said its coastal hotels were almost full with the most popular destinations being Brighton, St Austell, Torquay, Newquay, Bournemouth, Scarborough and Blackpool.

 

Meanwhile Heathrow is expecting to handle 546,000 departing passengers this weekend – much the same as last year with New York, Dubai and Dublin the most popular destinations.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10259326/Rain-may-blight-bank-holiday.html

[RUSH]

afternooon

 

bugger the sun gone in need to put the washing out mmmmmm whot to do next ,do i take the chance or not that is the question?????????????

[Jax]

Wet and Warm day here, 22.1oC in the shed, some sunny spells but more cloud, but quite calm and very humid feeling still.

 

Last official long weekend of the year for some coming up, weather still looks 50/50

[john pike]

grrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

the fax charts are late again

 

however i have friday

 

a weak south easterly flow

 

precipitation

should stay dry

 

uppers

should see temps 28-29 and possibly hit 30 in the usual hot spots

 

will update as soon as i get the updates

[john pike]

friday night

 

low pressure to our south-south east

 

a trough to our west

 

wind flow variable but shows a north west

 

rain shows

 

at present it shows getting heavier as we head towards the early morning rush hour

 

temps

if we see any storms it will be between these times as unstable air moves in

 

very clammy night around 18-20 degrees

 

geeting cooler as we head to the rush hour am

[Jax]

Friday shmyday LOL

 

 

I need a good weekend, we are doing a 3 day steam rally (again)

[john pike]

saturday

 

a variable windflow

 

rain

 

uppers

so wet and temps around 22 degrees

 

not very nice

 

not very optimistic on storms here

 

saturday night still wet

 

and humid

 

sunday to follow later

[Mesoscale]

No storms again? the usual haha?I wasn't holding much hope anyway as my area seems to always miss them, they scoot past in all directions. All I want is one decent storm! ONE!!!! Oh well theres always winter for snow but this area doesnt seem to get as much precip as the surrounding areas.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Mesoscale

[Tamara]

You are far too forgiving Tamara – it's another epic cock-up. They are paid large sums of money to forecast the weather amid complexity and got it badly wrong at short range, and it's as simple as that. Saturday looks like being another massive fail – forecasting a warm, dry weekend around which people have planned. We are now facing heavy rainfall. I ordered two tonnes of topsoil to relandscape my garden, arriving Saturday morning, based on their forecast. I will now probably end up with £150 worth of mud (or rather my neighbours will, as it streams away down the hill). 

Actually I think that the METO applied caution and always suggested that there was a chance of unsettled weather, temporarily, in parts of England and Wales right back at the start of the week - and it was clear from the computer models at the time that this was possible as a shortwave, disrupting SE towards southern Britain became to come under the radar.

 

 The overall pattern looked rather more optimistic back then than reality now suggests, but a straightforward blanket dry and warm weekend was never a given, or stated to be one. All that has simply happened is that this possibility of showers has increased and intensified, in line with the sort of micro developments that can happen in this country.  Its not the first time it has happened and it won't be the last time either.

 

So I don't think it is a case of being forgiving at all - it is simply down to how one wants to choose to interpret the predictions. Especially with a Bank Holiday at stake. Afterall, as stated, the chances of showers was picked up as the models began to move into a reliable time period so it shouldn't be a total surprise...

Edited August 22, 2013 by Tamara Road

[john pike]

sunday

 

a variable flow but looks north east

 

low to our south east with a trough next to it

 

rain

this is a close call from heavy rain or seeing nothing at all if that low drops slightly further south

 

temps

look around 22-24 degrees

 

so my forecast at the moment for sunday is

 

check tomorrow

[Suburban Streamer]

An excellent summary there Tamara (as always).  Defo been a very tricky one to forecast and i think the met office did about as well as can be expected.

 

Its not all bad though.  Saturday looks soggy but certainly an improving picture as the weekend progresses.  Sunday looks ok, especially north of the Thames which should escape much of any afternoon showers.  South of the Thames look more likely to get showers but as always they will be hit and miss. Monday looks rather pleasant for all so fingers crossed on that one not changing!

[dubmuffin]

Looks like my annual bank holiday saturday bbq is going to be a total washout this year. Last year we ended up bbq-ing under an umbrella as sharp heavy showers came in but his year seems we might end up using the oven instead