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Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    All that rainfall is error rainfall. I can tell just by looking at it.

    After zooming in, you're probably right, it's very pixelated. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    One thing to bear in mind, the low hasn't completely developed yet and the models available to the public struggle to work out some factors. This is where the MO and BBC probably come in to their own, using the high res models such as MOGREPS. I think some folks will be pleasantly surprised tonight/tomorrow , it could get very interesting in the warning zones. :)

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    Guest William Grimsley

    After zooming in, you're probably right, it's very pixelated. 

    Yeah, annoying.

    What is 'error rainfall'? the wrong kinda rain? Posted Image

    It's rainfall that is either falling from the clouds and not reaching the ground or errors in the radar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Havant, nr Portsmouth, SE Hampshire
  • Location: Havant, nr Portsmouth, SE Hampshire

    Anomalous propagation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anomalous_propagation

    Posted Image

     

    and

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/247/

    Edited by cobbettp
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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

     

     

    Or could it not be the precip evaporating before it falls and lands on your head? Is it called Virga or something?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    High pressure is sitting just out to the east so there could be a dry layer in the atmosphere which is evaporating the rain. Once that Low develops, it becomes the dominant feature and that dry layer will dissolve...presumably. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Here's hoping for some exciting weather here. All we've had this year is one shower of rain Lol. It's got to give some time.Mind, around this time last year we had a small storm and a torrential downpour whilst the Greenbelt festival was on at the racecourse.so as well as lovin storms I'm hoping this happens againPosted Image  that'll hopefully  stop their noise  lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Starting to get a bit active in Naarth East

    The problem of the new weather extra radar scales. Looks a lot worse than it is. Generally fairly quiet looking at the old scales. Nothing remarkable. One or two more lively areas of South West England Wales but over all a weak front at the moment pushing east.

    Warning valid here from 16:00 for us. Looking very unlikely.

    Anybody found anything to back up the earlier rather exited forecasts?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley

    A little too early to say what will happen but so far, nothing amazing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    The problem of the new weather extra radar scales. Looks a lot worse than it is. Generally fairly quiet looking at the old scales. Nothing remarkable. One or two more lively areas of South West England Wales but over all a weak front at the moment pushing east.

    Warning valid here from 16:00 for us. Looking very unlikely.

    Anybody found anything to back up the earlier rather exited forecasts?

    I'm looking at raintoday and have done for years but yes it doesn't look explosive, just that showery activity appears to have increased. Metoffice says... (4am) 20mm an hour for some areas there. post-15503-0-84382900-1377271912_thumb.j

    Edited by PerfectStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    no rain here

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    Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)

    Nice bit of Mamma or mammatus cloud? over central london. No pics unfortunately..

     

    Think thats right, like balls of cotton wool stuck together..

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    Guest William Grimsley

    High pressure is sitting just out to the east so there could be a dry layer in the atmosphere which is evaporating the rain. Once that Low develops, it becomes the dominant feature and that dry layer will dissolve...presumably. 

    I hope so.

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    Guest William Grimsley

    Some lovely altocumulus castellanus clouds getting going in Newton Poppleford Weather's WNW, now! :D

    Nice bit of Mamma or mammatus cloud? over central london. No pics unfortunately..

     

    Think thats right, like balls of cotton wool stuck together..

    Newton Poppleford Weather had a bit of that earlier now altocumulus castellanus clouds. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    Nice bit of Mamma or mammatus cloud? over central london. No pics unfortunately.. Think thats right, like balls of cotton wool stuck together..

    can see them from here too,in se13,quite impressive
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Some lovely altocumulus castellanus clouds getting going in Newton Poppleford Weather's WNW, now! Posted Image

     

    Going by the posts i've read in this thread, haven't you had that all day? Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton, Warks. (87m 285ft ASL)
  • Location: Nuneaton, Warks. (87m 285ft ASL)

    Met Office text description of the weather for the west midlands tonight, updated at 15:02, maintains the 'perhaps heavy and thundery' language, although its mostly referring to the north east of that region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Some lovely altocumulus castellanus clouds getting going in Newton Poppleford Weather's WNW, now! Posted Image

    Newton Poppleford Weather had a bit of that earlier now altocumulus castellanus clouds. Posted Image

    I'm sure I just saw some diplodocus...Either that, or all this late-season thundery activity means it's a good mushroom season...Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

    dunno whats going on with the radar but they should be rain falling and its defo not a rainfall error as somebody put it lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton, Warks. (87m 285ft ASL)
  • Location: Nuneaton, Warks. (87m 285ft ASL)

    I don't expect much rain at all in the West Midlands, it's all 50 miles east.

     

    Indeed, I mostly mentioned it as its one of the few regional descriptions of the weather from the met office that had been updated this afternoon when I looked, and it still mentions thunder. And since I am in the far east of the west midlands I may still get some. A previous run of their graphical rain map did have more rain overnight for parts of the west midlands than the current run shows, I'm right on the edge of the area of rain at 4am now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Indeed, I mostly mentioned it as its one of the few regional descriptions of the weather from the met office that had been updated this afternoon when I looked, and it still mentions thunder. And since I am in the far east of the west midlands I may still get some. A previous run of their graphical rain map did have more rain overnight for parts of the west midlands than the current run shows, I'm right on the edge of the area of rain at 4am now.

     

    Usual case of it all being shunted E as usual. Still waiting for a storm this year, on top of last year when I also saw none. It's becoming a bit of a stale joke.

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Posted Image

     

    Expect any storms that do initiate to have the potential to continue into the night.

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