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Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Flooding in north leeds apparently

 

And I was lucky enough to be out running in it :-/

 

Really heavy torrential rain earlier.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Really heavy stuff in Spalding apparently. Arghhh Im so half tempted to chase, but knowing my luck I'll get there and it will be done :/ 

Wrong place at the wrong time yet again !

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This is one of the nastiest storms I've ever seen, I'm on the east side of York and still shaking from the explosion which I think hit a house just round the corner. Never ever seen rain like this. Lightning every 5-10 seconds, constant thunder and the missus is fast asleep.

Looks manic on radar there right now...two active looking storms lining up right over the city. Enjoy, despite the possible lightning strike nearby. Local news no doubt'll be busy tomorrow..
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Location: York

Looks manic on radar there right now...two active looking storms lining up right over the city. Enjoy, despite the possible lightning strike nearby. Local news no doubt'll be busy tomorrow..

York press already has a headline up. Still frequent lightning and loud ish thunder to the south or west but the rain is away NE. Gotta say if I'd decided to go to the pub at 9 after golf I'd have missed it all (pub shuts at 12).
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Good Morning. BBC forecasts really ramping up thunderstorms later, talking of "big thunderstorms" but having looked through all the charts I have access too I cannot see much imo. GFS doesn't look great for thunderstorms, neither does lightning wizard (although that is based on the GFS). NMM shows some potential I suppose, but nothing great. Torrential rain is looking likely though for eastern parts but i'm not convinced of much lightning/thunder.

 

I do hope I am wrong and the BBC are right.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well there will be zippo here as normal.

Serious head back on. Beeb mentioned an upper layer of cool air allowing the storms to kick off. Im going blind though can't see it on the charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

No CAPE, LI almost neutral. Not sure where Auntie Beeb are looking at the moment. Seems unlike them however to be so vocal in regards to severe weather T24.

Won't be the first time they have predicted something that has actually come to fruition but then maybe they are going to be wrong. Whatever the case maybe they are looking at something that know one on here can see..................
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I wonder if it could be elevated instability that they are looking at?

 

One thing that is certain is that with PWAT values over 30mm there is the potential for some large rainfall totals across eastern parts in particular, especially considering the potentially thundery/rainy belt will be over this area from this evening throughout tonight and tomorrow. Obviously regional amounts will vary but some places could get very wet with the risk of flooding.

 

The forecast for storms makes sense too, cold air ahead of a cold front moving into and over a warm, humid airmass. Low pressure developing over the UK. The recipe is there, but the charts do not seem to show this. One for the storm experts I feel.

 

No forecast from UKASF and Estofex having none of it. I am afraid I feel this will be just a lot of heavy rain with at the most the odd rumble of thunder.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Yup - I was blissfully unaware of the North Yorks storms last night - but northeast news have just given a run down - sounds pretty spectacular like, flooding, rescues road closures and a building hit by lightning.

 

Hope tonight has something in store mind - BBC are ramping it up eh!  (won't happen now) 

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Guest William Grimsley

It looks like all you guys in N England have had a great time! Hopefully, SW England will see some activity today and/or tomorrow. Thoughts? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Good Morning. BBC forecasts really ramping up thunderstorms later, talking of "big thunderstorms"

 

Did they mean big rain??!!! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Or maybe big thunderstorms in Southern Europe?

 

post-6667-0-35629800-1377240922_thumb.pn

 

There's some convergence a bit later 

 

Posted Image

 

and some convective rain down in Cornwall:

 

Posted Image

 

Low level lapse rates are up in the SE:

 

Posted Image

 

But it is all a bit incoherent and nothing stands out on GFS as potential currently. Let me go looky at some other stuff and see if they are getting hints elsewhere. 

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Guest William Grimsley

At Newton Poppleford Weather, it's feeling fairly humid and close out there with lots of stratocumulus, stratus and altocumulus. This could be the day. Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Nothing obvious on the aviation weather except the Atlantic system coming into the West later:

 

Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

Did they mean big rain??!!! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

There's some convergence a bit later 

 

Posted Image

 

and some convective rain down in Cornwall:

 

Posted Image

 

But it is all a bit incoherent and nothing stands out on GFS as potential currently. Let me go looky at some other stuff and see if they are getting hints elsewhere. 

This looks good for the SW today. With a bit of convergence, a band of rain moving in, quite high CAPE and muggy air, I think something could happen today. Fingers crossed.

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Guest William Grimsley

The rain out to the west of Cornwall already looks quite heavy. Hopefully, with some more energy later it could intensify to give heavy rain/thundery rain. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

This looks good for the SW today. With a bit of convergence, a band of rain moving in, quite high CAPE and muggy air, I think something could happen today. Fingers crossed.

 

No real CAPE to talk of down in the SW unless you are standing at Lands End this afternoon. There is a bit of something up in the NE, but again it doesn't seem to amount to much according to NMM:

 

post-6667-0-91438800-1377242203_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-60824100-1377242211_thumb.pn

 

It actually looks to be quite quiet for the next few days:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Even that little peak around London tomorrow isn't anything really exciting Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Guest William Grimsley

No real CAPE to talk of down in the SW unless you are standing at Lands End this afternoon. There is a bit of something up in the NE, but again it doesn't seem to amount to much according to NMM:

 

Posted ImageMLCAPE 230813 16z.png

 

Posted ImageTTIndex 230813 16z.png

 

It actually looks to be quite quiet for the next few days:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Even that little peak around London tomorrow isn't anything really exciting Posted Image

The CAPE area looks more over Cornwall than Lands End! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The CAPE area looks more over Cornwall than Lands End! Posted Image

 

No use having fuel without a spark! :lol: 

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I don't really see any other reason why the bbc would show such a high potential for thunderstorms if they were only looking at the charts we are looking at.

 

They must know something that we don't.

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Guest William Grimsley

I don't really see any other reason why the bbc would show such a high potential for thunderstorms if they were only looking at the charts we are looking at.

 

They must know something that we don't.

I hope they know something.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I hope they know something.

They must do!

 

The very words of big thunderstorms enevitably causes the viewer to have big confidence that at least some form of thunder and lightning is likely to happen.

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