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Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013


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Guest William Grimsley

What are people's thoughts on Sunday? Lots of showers forecast for SW and Central England tomorrow. Possibility of any intense downpours and sferics? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Any thoughts?Posted Image

 

Very little to indicate thunderstorm activity tomorrow. A number of showers could well develop but I wouldn't expect anything thundery.

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Guest William Grimsley

Very little to indicate thunderstorm activity tomorrow. A number of showers could well develop but I wouldn't expect anything thundery.

Ah ok I thought that would be the case thanks.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

I'm in Tyldesley at the moment and we have just had an incredible convective shower developing! We've just gone from gusts of 18mph to a maximum gust of 54mph!! Really did rattle the windows and blinds!

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Guest William Grimsley

Heavy showers are starting to move into Devon now. A shower has already given torrential rain in Newquay, earlier. :D

I'm in Tyldesley at the moment and we have just had an incredible convective shower developing! We've just gone from gusts of 18mph to a maximum gust of 54mph!! Really did rattle the windows and blinds!

WOW! That is some squall! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS has the BH weekend shaping up for potential for some:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

So a normal summer Bank holiday coming up then!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

The whole weekend has potential by the looks of it. Although the jet stream is way to the north and a cut off low is supplying us with the potential, on the jetstream forecast, there still looks to be slight to moderate amounts of shear within the system which could cause rotation within storms that do occur. 

This space should be monitored closely, things could get interesting as pretty much all of the right ingredients are there. Slack humid SSE'lies, strong diurnal heating with a bit of shear accompanied towards the centre of the low. That screams to me quite big hail, some very gusty winds and maybe a few funnel clouds, along with some very heavy rain and frequent lightning.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Nothing will happen here so not getting excited. Just dreading the unpleasant humid heat that's possibly on offer.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Posted Image

 

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GFS overnight output is fancying the North more than the South currently.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

No change there then Robin !

 

Posted Image  As it's a bank holiday weekend, we better let our neighbours in the North have some fun!

 

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Mind you, looks like it might go out with some rain for the East last thing Monday:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I am very dissapointed, and to be honest quite embarrased at how dramatically the models have completely dropped this hot spell, and with the chance of storms being very little for our area now just makes it worse.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I am very dissapointed, and to be honest quite embarrased at how dramatically the models have completely dropped this hot spell, and with the chance of storms being very little for our area now just makes it worse.Posted Image

 

You gotta chill Wimb, it's just the weather and there's always more around the corner - that's the beauty of it all! :good: 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

I am very dissapointed, and to be honest quite embarrased at how dramatically the models have completely dropped this hot spell, and with the chance of storms being very little for our area now just makes it worse.Posted Image

Am not surprised in the least, it happens all the time! That's why it's best not to read too much into them or get too excited, especially by stuff shown over 4-5 days away. Have to say I'm a bit frustrated too, after reading endless talk of heatwaves etc it looks like being another typical British BH lol....changeable!

Enjoying the lovely weather today :)

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I think we might have a storm on the way at the weekend.  Has anyone noticed the similarity?  Same ratios, same angles, same isobars.  Warm water, check.  Cold water, check.  Humidity, check.  It's like a balloon ready to pop.  And if it goes Saturday it's high tide at 1622, 4.1m in the South East so a surge towards London is a possibility.

 

 

Of course, all those lows might equalise around us.  But the chances of that are pretty slim, I feel.

 

Good luck if you are chasing.  And good luck if you are not..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Radio rumours of possible thunderstorms today, ESTOFEX say nicht! 

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

SkyWarn, UKASF and TORRO also remaining stum so far (or enjoying the holiday season!) so what are the indications that have the BBC calling convection for today?

 

I don't think it's GFS as they are just showing rain to the North and Scotland:

 

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Maybe it's the slight risk for Eastern Scotland?

 

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Let me have a poke around a few more pictures and see if they have indications.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

NMM have a smidgen of Eastern Scotland in the afternoon:

 

post-6667-0-61746300-1377068260_thumb.pn post-6667-0-43403900-1377068267_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-14462300-1377068266_thumb.pn

 

I don't think this is going to set the World alight (or Scotland for that matter) 

 

 

 

 

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