South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >

[South coaster]

Send him to bed quick ,before he signs up to netweather.

Your right think he might become addicted

[jtay]

Your right think he might become addicted

 

[Lynxus]

Fyi, Had a storm pass close to me ( North of Tewksbury ) Managed to see one or two CG and a couple of rumbles. Lovely cloudscapes.

 

Still.

 

One day, I will catch one overhead.

[gloucesterlad]

Went to a beer festival with friends to Forest of Dean. Dry to start with hooray ! Then two hours of constant thunder and lightning. sods law. but it was impressive.

[Karl83]

Well I've now had 5 storms in the last 2 weeks. Some not directly overhead but none the less, a major improvement on previous years gone by. Its nice to see and hear it all again after such a long time.

 

So now my attentions turn to Monday afternoon. AWD I would like to hear your thoughts if you may? I see there is a decent amount of CAPE shown by GFS, but I know its not always about that. Or could there be something over the weekend?

 

Cheers!

[Ashme]

Amazing! I can see lightning flashes that are 88miles East from me. Clear skies here

[AWD]

So now my attentions turn to Monday afternoon. AWD I would like to hear your thoughts if you may? I see there is a decent amount of CAPE shown by GFS, but I know its not always about that. Or could there be something over the weekend?Cheers!

I'll get back to you tomorrow if I may mate, major overdrive at work right now, hence why I haven't posted a forecast for tomorrow either.Lightning strike as blown up signalling equipment at Bridgwater, leaving me with a backlog of congestion at Fairwater.Good to see some storms again tonight though, brilliant year so far for storms IMBY. Will do forecast if I have time later.

[Costa Del Fal]

SATURDAY: Sunshine and Showers for Kernow. Mostly Sunny for Channel Islands. 17-21c.

 

Cornwall's Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...wall/4573724902

Channel Islands Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...ands/4573977985

 

***Do you own a weather station in Cornwall or the Channel Islands? Get yourself added to our new network map on the website! PM me!***

 

 

189 Followers @kernowweather including Edward Sault & BBC Channel Islands!

[Somerset Squall]

Had a half hearted storm here a couple of hours ago. A couple bright flashes, quiet thunder though. Rain was heavy for a time but most of it passed west of here.

[Karl83]

I'll get back to you tomorrow if I may mate, major overdrive at work right now, hence why I haven't posted a forecast for tomorrow either.Lightning strike as blown up signalling equipment at Bridgwater, leaving me with a backlog of congestion at Fairwater.Good to see some storms again tonight though, brilliant year so far for storms IMBY. Will do forecast if I have time later.

No problem at all mate. Completely understand. Hope its an easy fix.

[AWD]

Forecast map for tomorrow, Saturday the 03rd of August;

This forecast may be a bit rushed, so apologies if this is the case. Tomorrow is likely to be a much more quieter day than today was.

Within the red area is where the main threat of showers is tomorrow. This includes much of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, north Dorset, Bristol, BANES, parts of Wiltshire, South Gloucestershire, parts of Oxfordshire and north Hampshire.

Showers are unlikely to be thundery tomorrow. They will be present from the word go in Cornwall and will move north eastwards throughout the day. There will be a mixture of light showers and some heavier showers. As ever in a showery set up, not all places will catch one and some will stay dry. This looks to be more favoured for south Dorset, South Hampshire and the Isle of Wight as well as the Cotswolds.

Temperatures are likely to peak in the mid 20c's in Central Southern England, low - mid 20c's in the West Country and high teens - very low 20c's in Devon and Cornwall.

[dec10snow]

Could someone be kind enough to give me some info on the longer range outlook... More on the aspect of storms! Because it seems we're keeping a rather unsettled theme going, but as I haven't yet experienced a storm in this little spell (due to being out the country! ) I would like to know if, with the unsettled conditions, we'll have some more storms? Thanks

Edited August 3, 2013 by dec10snow

[textmum]

Forecast map for tomorrow, Saturday the 03rd of August;

image.jpg

This forecast may be a bit rushed, so apologies if this is the case. Tomorrow is likely to be a much more quieter day than today was.

Within the red area is where the main threat of showers is tomorrow. This includes much of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, north Dorset, Bristol, BANES, parts of Wiltshire, South Gloucestershire, parts of Oxfordshire and north Hampshire.

Showers are unlikely to be thundery tomorrow. They will be present from the word go in Cornwall and will move north eastwards throughout the day. There will be a mixture of light showers and some heavier showers. As ever in a showery set up, not all places will catch one and some will stay dry. This looks to be more favoured for south Dorset, South Hampshire and the Isle of Wight as well as the Cotswolds.

Temperatures are likely to peak in the mid 20c's in Central Southern England, low - mid 20c's in the West Country and high teens - very low 20c's in Devon and Cornwall.

Thank you AWD, this is easiest forecast of all for me to understand and read, brilliant, off to Cornwall early next week, so hoping the rain goes away, meanwhile will enjoy Gloucester's sunshine.

[Rustynailer]

The storms gave a tornado and golf ball sized hail, I have seen a picture of the hail on a private Facebook account, the picture will surface fully later no doubt LOL .http://www.iwradio.co.uk/articles/2013-08-03-mini-tornado-on-the-isle-of-wight

Here at my end of the Island the storm lasted a couple of hours or so that I noticed, very colorful, lots of distant thunder and a super shocker of a crash just once to catch everybody out, the dog tried to disappear he was that shocked, poor thing.

 

More http://www.iwcp.co.uk/news/news/violent-thunderstorm-hits-the-island-50434.aspx

Edited August 3, 2013 by Rustynailer

[wimblettben]

There were no storms around here yesterday though I did see some faint flashes (Heat Lightning) during the night.

[rich1974]

There were no storms around here yesterday though I did see some faint flashes (Heat Lightning) during the night.

Heat lightning...what this then? Never heard of this before.

[Snowangel-MK]

Heat lightning...what this then? Never heard of this before.

 

Heat lightning is the name used for the faint flashes of lightning on the horizon or other clouds from distant thunderstorms that do not have accompanying sounds of thunder. This happens because the lightning occurs very far away and the sound dissipates before it reaches the observer.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_lightning

[wimblettben]

Heat lightning...what this then? Never heard of this before.

Lightning that is too far away to here the thunder but you can see it as it is dark enough to see the weaker flashes.

 

It is given the name because it usually accompanies the hot sticky type of summer evenings when storms have developed during the day.

[A.J]

a line of heavy showers going up from cornwall to Gloucester, I can see the anvil tops to my west.....slight modification on the trajectory compared with yesterday, more an easterly component (WSW to ENE) so showers/storms will penetrate further inland into Wilts/Oxon

[A.J]

GFS modelling has little CAPE & lift but hi-res modelling shows more substantial energy and lift available this afternoon/evening with a tongue of higher lift and energy spreading from the Bristol Channel through Wilts & into Oxon. surface convergence in the same area will aid forcing, however lapse rates are poor so cloud tops would be lower inhibiting updrafts.......interesting to see what the updated NMM (due around 11:30) shows, whether it continues to model this ......

 

 

just to add, showers will develop readily given these parameters, but storms? not so sure

Edited August 3, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[AWD]

GFS modelling has little CAPE & lift but hi-res modelling shows more substantial energy and lift available this afternoon/evening with a tongue of higher lift and energy spreading from the Bristol Channel through Wilts & into Oxon. surface convergence in the same area will aid forcing, however lapse rates are poor so cloud tops would be lower inhibiting updrafts.......interesting to see what the updated NMM (due around 11:30) shows, whether it continues to model this ......

I've just viewed the NMM ( albeit the 0z run ) and it has what you describe above, weak CAPE building from Bristol into BANES and west Wiltshire.I still think 99% of showers will be non-thundery but I can't rule out one or two forming in this area becoming thundery. Especially as the 0z NMM PPN chart has a very potent cell develop over the above area by 17:00 this afternoon.

[A.J]

a line of heavy showers now developing roughly Exeter to Swindon, tying in nicely with current modelling and indeed AWD's forecast from last night...good call bud!

[A.J]

first sferics of the day detected from that cell near Frome...heading staright towards Chippenham & Swindon

[MP-R]

Been to Swindon and back this morning and saw some fantastic looking cbs to the north and west which have since dissipated. Felt really quite cool out there this morning but gradually warming up. Looking forward to some high pressure for a change towards the end of the week.

[Sainsbo]

Looking at the radar, it looks like we could be in for a little bit of action. The Blitzortung lightning map showing a few sferics popping up here and there.

 

Oh my, in the past two weeks we've had more storms here than in the past 5 years.