South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >

[Snowangel-MK]

Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in this region....

 

 

 

link to the previous one here...

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77340-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/page-39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well a damp start today, with a touch of very light drizzle, but from mid morning sunny   Not as warm as yesterdays 29.7C but still warmer than forecast with 24C currently, I guess as the forecast had today as cloudy here.

[MP-R]

Typically, a long line of convective cloud has decided to line up and move along its own line in front of the sun ensuring permanent shade where a few miles either side has sunshine. Shove off cloud, you're ruining what could be a lovely day!

[ARTDEMOLE]

24.1c.Some cloud. Sun is out. Humidity 62%......Indoors it is 24.5C....

[gloucesterlad]

Posted Yesterday, 18:33

I'm going to split this forecast into 2. One for tonight and one for tomorrow as developments tonight could be key to developments tomorrow.

Tonight's forecast map;



The area in red, which includes Cornwall, South Devon and along the South Dorset coast will see some light, sporadic rainfall through the late evening and into the early hours. I'm not expecting this to be anything more than light, sporadic rainfall though. Cloudcover will increase over Cornwall in the next few hours ahead of this rainfall. The rainfall probably not reaching the South Dorset coast until the early hours.

Elsewhere dry and starting clear, with cloudcover increasing from the west as we progress through the night. It will be a warm, muggy night everywhere.

Tomorrow's forecast map;



This has been a challenging forecast to produce to say the least. Unlike today, where I had high confidence in my forecast, I have low confidence in this forecast, but it's the best I can come up with I think.

The area in red is at risk of developing thundery showers from late morning onwards, perhaps merging into some potent thunderstorm cells in the afternoon, although by the time this happens it may well have moved out of our region. This includes Oxfordshire, North Hampshire and parts of Berkshire. FWIW, the East Midlands into Lincolnshire may well see a late afternoon MCS tomorrow.

The area in green might see some sort of squall line developing. This includes the Forest of Green, Gloucestershire and maybe north Bristol. During the afternoon there could be some weak CAPE developing along with surface heating this could help to produce some isolated thundery showers along a convergence line from SE Wales into the Cotswolds and Midlands. There could be some isolated heavy falls of rain, gusty winds and isolated thundery activity mixed in here.

The area in blue, which includes Cornwall and parts of Devon will see some moderate rainfall enter the region late afternoon into the evening. This again could have some isolated thundery activity mixed in with it, although as sunlight fades, I expect any thundery activity to also fade.

Elsewhere, it's going to be a mix of sunny spells, cloudcover and the odd scattered shower. Not all places will see the showers, many will stay dry. The east of the region should see temperatures into the mid 20c's with the west of the region into the low 20c's.

A challenging forecast to which I may update if necessary at 23:00.

 

Spot on AWD with your green area !

Its monsooning it down in the Forest of Dean area.

John in Gloucester

Edited August 2, 2013 by gloucesterlad

[AWD]

Latest radar;

We have the early stages of an attempted squall line developing over Gloucestershire and into the south Midlands.

We have interesting developments in the channel with activity heading towards the Isle of Wight and into Hampshire.

We have rain heading into Cornwall. Could be a few suprises for some this evening.

[island lad]

You beat me too it awd. Am I right in thinking that the island could get quite a soaking to end the day ?

[AWD]

You beat me too it awd. Am I right in thinking that the island could get quite a soaking to end the day ?

Could do mate. Hampshire is one of the better placed locations to catch something later.Watch the radar!!

[Sainsbo]

Kudos to you AWD, your post last night looks to be spot on. Any idea on how much you think the squall will intensify?

 

Temps got up to about 22C here today, and still felt rather warm in the sunshine.

 

Monday's looking pretty wet at the moment aswell:

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Lovely storm heading for west cornwall right now!

[Karl83]

Could do mate. Hampshire is one of the better placed locations to catch something later.

Watch the radar!!

Nothing for us?

[AWD]

Nothing for us?

Keep an eye on the radar mate, see if anything else develops on the southern flank of what's developed over Gloucestershire. Your in the north of the city so you have a chance, albeit small. Otherwise it's a case of watching anything wise develop to our South West, as stuff is over Cornwall. Edited August 2, 2013 by AWD

[Argyle1980]

We have a few claps of thunder here now and heavy rain! Not seen any flashes yet!.

[Lynxus]

Good luck in the SW...

 

Your about to get very wet,.

 

Just need some ThunAdos now

 

 

Oh and this just popped up!

 

Edited August 2, 2013 by Lynxus

[Lynxus]

Shocker...

 

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/011 

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 15:40GMT on Friday 2nd August 2013 

Valid from/until: 15:40 – 06:00GMT on Friday 2nd August/Saturday 3rd August 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: 

England 

Wales 

THREATS 

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; hail 10-20mm diameter 

SYNOPSIS 

Large-scale upper trough is moving in from the west, with several areas of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across England and Wales, albeit fairly widely scattered. Some of these storms have been reasonably long-lived, and could be supercells, or at least exhibiting some storm-scale rotation - they are well organised. 

These pose a risk for hail and wind, and perhaps a tornado, although the overall risk is deemed too low for a watch. Overnight, further showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially in western and southern parts. It may be that many eastern and north-eastern areas actually have a fairly low risk overnight - however, with models signalling some organised areas of convection moving north-east overnight, amidst enough shear for organised storms, the risk area has been made fairly large. 

The risk for organised storms will slowly decrease west to east through tonight, as the upper trough moves in and the deep layer shear decreases. 

Forecaster: RPK.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Lynxus

[Lynxus]

Actually, Those of you closer to the sea. 

 

With Torro's warning out, I would be very careful and keep an eye out for these:

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Having missed all of the action recently

 

Looking good now, Angry skies. Rain shafts out in the ocean

 

By the looks of the radar plenty more to head up this way

 

Got lightning detected Cornwall and south-west approaches

[Erbyskerby]

Gentle thunder here!! Clouds are very dark - have seen one very feint flicker of lightning. Extremely muggy feeling. Oooh after all these weeks of nowt - little nieces are running around shouting at the storm to come! Little storm chasers in the making I think. No rain yet but very threatening.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Erbyskerby

[Costa Del Fal]

Any important updates to the Cornwall storm will be posted @kernowweather

Stay safe all.

[South coaster]

Shame think that band is gonna just miss pompey sure I heard thunder this morning about 5ish what do u think our chances are for tonite

[MP-R]

Running the radar and sat24 sequences, I'm trying to work out just how quickly its moving NEwards, in light of when to expect it to arrive in the Weston-Bristol area. Looks impressive off the Cornish and Devon coast.

[Lynxus]

Running the radar and sat24 sequences, I'm trying to work out just how quickly its moving NEwards, in light of when to expect it to arrive in the Weston-Bristol area. Looks impressive off the Cornish and Devon coast.

 

 

Reaaaaaaalllly slowly, 

Its barely moved eastwards all day.

[Bumpkin]

My friend and her family left at lunchtime for Cornwall for a weeks holiday.  Not sure she is going to like what she has driven into looking at the radar its been a glorious day here apart from the wind.

[Bristawl Si]

Sun and cloud here; windy as well and no showers since this morning. Temp must be around 20c i guess.

[Karl83]

Sun and cloud here; windy as well and no showers since this morning. Temp must be around 20c i guess.

The CB's are huge to my west and now beginning to move closer. The sun is beginning to get blocked out and the skies are darkening.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Karl83