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Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13


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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

hey mods isn't it time for a new thread? If i remembor some posters were saying that its a cert for a hot spell to arive aft the weekend blip. I maybe wrong and if i am then tell me.

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley

Damn... 3 day metal detecting rally in Oxfordshire this Fri to Sunday

heck .. which model to trust this w/end.

Maybe just still to far away to call this ? - but I have a feeling in my bladder that a rain event is on for the south. Posted Image

Hope I'm wrong Posted Image

Cheers !

John in Gloucester

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Damn... 3 day metal detecting rally in Oxfordshire this Fri to Sunday

heck .. which model to trust this w/end.

Maybe just still to far away to call this ? - but I have a feeling in my bladder that a rain event is on for the south. Posted Image

Hope I'm wrong Posted Image

Cheers !

John in Gloucester

Im in Evesham, about 22 miles NE of you.Posted Image We may get some interesting weather by then!!Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Hmm ECM ens are more in favour of a GFS/GEM like solution at least to day 7/8

Posted Image

 

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Not too bad. The ECM op was an outlier to the high near the pole which is no surprise. More favoured is the trough moving back northwards from the Bay of Biscay in the later stages.

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Will be looking forward to the next 48 hours, might be April or May until it becomes this warm again! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

hey mods isn't it time for a new thread? If i remembor some posters were saying that its a cert for a hot spell to arive aft the weekend blip. I maybe wrong and if i am then tell me.

 

why? what can be said on a new thread that cant be said here?

 

no one said it was a cert that theres another hot/warm spell after the weekend, but the models did consistently show one. people correctly commented on what those runs were showing.

 

now its not completely gone now, we might still get more heat. but its clear that so far off nailing the detail is going to be different.

 

we know we are in for a few warm days now, we know its expected to break down friday onwards (thursday in the nw), we pretty much know a low will form ... what we dont know is exactly where this low will form, we dont know where it will drift although current expectations suggest somewhere close to our southwest, we dont know how much pressure will rise to our north from the azh linking with scandinavia/northern europe.

 

and therein lies the problem. nailing exactly where the low will go, how big it will be, and pressure rise behind it. a couple of hundered miles (not far in weather/atmospheric terms) is going to make a huge difference in what we get... from warm sunny/thundery weather, to much cooler cloudier, showery weather.

 

guess we will just have to wait and see, but for now we have some splendid early autumn sun/warmth to enjoy, lets do that and worry about next week later!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

All swings and roundabouts really, this morning UKMO looks pretty bad

Posted Image

 

GFS a little better

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GEM looks good throughout

Posted Image

 

ECM looks good this morning too

Posted Image

 

All the models have the low in different places at day 5 and add to that no model is showing consistency over the precise movement of the low, so all still up for grabs really.

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
why? what can be said on a new thread that cant be said here?

 

Nothing...but I think it's time for a good old Autumn hunt..

 

Let's shift this Summer thread out of the way and move on.

Edited by simshady
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Starting a new thread won't prevent the fact that it's going to be very warm for at least the next few days (today/Wednesday/Thursday), by all means tell us to move on, but apparently the weather didn't get the memo :p

Plus there are plenty of warm charts to place a little bit of belief in the fact that the warmth will continue. Not anything particularly autumnal except for anywhere which gets stuck under slow moving weather fronts. Which contrary to the fact we are in meteorological Autumn is pretty much the standard fair for the first half of September.

GFS ens again show the low to our south west which is not exactly conductive to autumn like weather.

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

A fairly unusual upper air pattern now seems pretty definite to occur, that is the cut off upper low, see the two outputs showing this. Rather unusual too with NOAA playing catch up with the other two. Only last evening did the 6-10 show this with ECMWF showing it from the Saturday issue and GFS from the Sunday one.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Looking through the GEFS perturbations, probably P2 about the best for the weekend:

 

Posted Image

 

P11 probably the worst:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Like the Cap'n, I'll start looking for cool and autumnal at the start of October. Meanwhile, carpe diem. Where's Frosty: is he re-generating into Winter mode?

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

The track of Saturdays low will make a real difference to weekend temps.

For example yesterdays 12Z ECM showed a max of 18c for London and heavy rain for Saturday

the ECM 00z has the track of the low further SW with only the SW and parts of Wales seeing rain and subsequently London has a high of 27c for Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

A fairly unusual upper air pattern now seems pretty definite to occur, that is the cut off upper low, see the two outputs showing this. Rather unusual too with NOAA playing catch up with the other two. Only last evening did the 6-10 show this with ECMWF showing it from the Saturday issue and GFS from the Sunday one.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

Yes, will be interesting to see how the models handle this loitering cut-off upper low close to the SW of the UK. UKMO looks on its own by merging the upper low with the general belt of upper westerlies near NW UK as early as Monday. Whereas ECM and GFS keep the low cut-off further south through much of next week until it's finally swallowed up by a burst of stronger upper westerlies coming across the Atlantic from NE Canada later next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Posted Image

Tonight and tomorrow will provide a lot of interest, a slack south-westerly flow should provide some very warm daytime and nighttime temperatures, with cloud and sun, whilst the far north should see some rain and strong winds.

Posted Image

Friday looks interesting and pretty active with an upper low nr Ireland, plenty of rain and cooler weather associated with it for the west, warm and cloudy across the south and east, and the far SE keeps retains the 15c 850 isotherm.

Posted Image

By Sunday, a very intense low in the Bay of Biscay, associated with a ridging continental high pressure cell, leads to a very warm south-easterly flow, the continent providing what should be its last 'very hot' blast of air, with 15c 850s constantly lingering around eastern areas. Definitely the potential for some very warm temperatures after the brief interlude on Friday and Saturday.

 

Definitely not benign and quite interesting to start of September. Could see 25-26c eclipsed across the SE in the next few days, and heavy rain and strong winds possible towards the weekend. Warm and dry across the east, more mixed and wetter to the west.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Can't believe The weather outlook are calling this spell an "Indian summer" I would have thought Brian would have know that an Indian summer doesn't occur from late September to mid November

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

 

Here is the latest on the models from Gibby

 

Good morning. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs of GFS, the Fax Charts, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Tuesday September 3rd 2013.

 

The pattern is well set now with High pressure close to Southern Britain pulling away East over the next 48 hours maintaining a warm and drier feed of air across Southern areas later today and tomorrow. At the same time the cloudier North will come under attack from a cold front moving SE from the NW later tonight and tomorrow. This trundles slowly SE through Wednesday and Thursday reaching Wales and the NW of Britain by Thursday. the rain initially heavy will become lighter and patchier the further SE it comes. By Friday and the weekend the trough will rejuvenate with Low pressure forming close to Southern Britain with outbreaks of rain and showers and much cooler temperatures arriving over the UK at the weekend.

 

The Fax Charts chart the sequence of events well with Low pressure close to SE England at the weekend with some heavy showers or more general rain affecting the South and East in particular in much cooler winds blowing down from the north or NE.

 

GFS shows the Low further West at the weekend but the net result is no different next week with a complex Low pressure area over the UK with rain at times and close to average temperatures at the surface. Some of the rain could be heavy and thundery in places. Through the final week of the run the weather improves as the Low fills and becomes replaced by High pressure building in from the West with sunny and warm conditions for all again with the likelihood of fog by night.

 

The GFS Ensembles show cooler weather at the weekend with rain at times for all. the trend then is for rather changeable conditions with rain at times though most members point to dry and bright weather at times too. The operational was a warm outlier at the end in the South and more widely in the North though temperatures up here are shown to be well above average at times.

 

The Jet Stream shows the general flow to the North of the UK at the moment. The Southern half of this flow splits and feeds our surface Low at the weekend with a core of winds going South of the UK. this gradually weakens as the low fills and moves towards the NW and sets up a new surge of Jet energy blowing West to East in the vicinity of Northern Britain later in the run.

 

UKMO today shows Low pressure moving North and NW across Britain early next week with showers or outbreaks of rain in the South extending North to all areas early next week.

 

GEM holds Low pressure down to the SW for some considerable time with showers and rain more likely in the South. The trend then is shown for this to fill and move NW to the west of the UK with warm and slack SE winds across the UK which could mean rather warm weather returning as High pressure lies over Central Europe.

 

NAVGEM also keeps quite a deep Low close to SW Britain next week with rain and showers extensive across Southern and SW parts while Northern and NE areas will see the least rain and drier conditions.

 

ECM also holds Low pressure down near the SW for much of next week with rain and showers in abundance for the South and SW where it would be progressively drier and brighter the further North and east one travels though Eastern coasts could be rather grey and misty. Late in the period the Low to the SW fills and moves across the UK as a trough at the end of next week with showers for all as it does.

 

In Summary the models continue to firm up on giving Southern Britain a taste of more unsettled conditions for at least a time while the North may turn out not as wet as further South as something of a North/South split in reverse develops. Longer term it looks less clear cut with the likely option for the Low to the South or SW to move North later next week which could either open the door to the Atlantic westerlies with rain at times or give the Azores high a chance to regain control over the UK again as GFS suggests possible this morning. there is a lot of weather to get through during  the next 7 days before anything can be confidently predicted for the following week. The unsettled spell in the coming week though is now looking more confident to happen now as most models have got a handle on developing Low pressure close to Southern Britain in one guise or another.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM ens back the op pretty much

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

The low moves northwards after this by the way.

We still have major differences at just T96 between the models, surprising considering at T72 the models pretty much agree.

But perhaps a bit of confidence in the ECM/GEM op solution at day 4/5 considering it has support from ECM and GFS ensembles.

The dreadful UKMO is still very much an outlier solution.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Yes, will be interesting to see how the models handle this loitering cut-off upper low close to the SW of the UK. UKMO looks on its own by merging the upper low with the general belt of upper westerlies near NW UK as early as Monday. Whereas ECM and GFS keep the low cut-off further south through much of next week until it's finally swallowed up by a burst of stronger upper westerlies coming across the Atlantic from NE Canada later next week.

as you say Nick, it will be interesting to see how the synoptic models deal with it and which of them will be nearer the correct solution, hard to tell at the moment, although I tend to favour the idea of it loitering around for a few days before the westerlies take over in one form or other?

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Make of the below what you willPosted Image

 

Both EC seasonal model and the EUROSIP model currently (Aug Update) highlighting northern blocking and a possible cold winter as per CFSv2.

 

Posted by Mr Hugo on Twitter.

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just looking at the GFS 06Z op and the cut-off low just sits there spinning over Ireland for about a week.

 

I've only been model-watching for about a year: is that unusual?

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Whilst inter model and inter run detail has and will continue to change, the overall picture looks pretty grim once we get beyond midweek, with much of September now possibly being written off IF things set up as currently indicated.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Whilst inter model and inter run detail has and will continue to change, the overall picture looks pretty grim once we get beyond midweek, with much of September now possibly being written off IF things set up as currently indicated.

Yep my exact personal thoughts were that the LP doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast. It doesn't look like being overly cool though?

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Whilst inter model and inter run detail has and will continue to change, the overall picture looks pretty grim once we get beyond midweek, with much of September now possibly being written off IF things set up as currently indicated.

I'm very cautious about drawing any conclusions really, some runs show the north dry, some runs they don't. Temperatures for Saturday have ranged from 12C to 28C in the South east. I personally favour the ECM op this morning as it's broadly similar to both GFS/ECM ens which in turn has been a lot more consistent with the positioning of the low to our south west at least for a few days before it makes another move. The low will try and push north to rejoin the atlantic jet at some point too which will bring another spell of wet weather.

But then it could all change by tonight. But with the potential this weekend for some people to be wearing thick coats and waterproofs whilst others just 100 miles away could be sunning themselves on the beach in very warm conditions means the model output will continue to be very interesting. FI is about Saturday at the moment.

Aside from this, 30C could be achieved on thursday

Posted Image

Also an improvement for Friday, especially in Eastern England

Posted Image

The rainband appears to be slower in crossing the country, with only showers for eastern areas, hence the higher temperatures.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looks as if the models are playing 'one extreme to the other' again?Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Too soon to write off the rest of Sept, as only a couple of days ago it looked very different. Certainly, if the gfs 6z verified, summer would be well and truly over tho.. With periods of persistent rain and cool temps the more west you are.

Edited by draztik
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