Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Summer Sun]

UKMO takes us into a north south split early next week once the low from the weekend pulls further away

 

 

ECM ends unsettled

 

 

Its also worth noting GFS has removed the deep low it was showing in the Atlantic on yesterday afternoons run

 

GFS can be viewed here - http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Summer Sun]

A mixed bag from the 00z GFS ensembles with them flipping between below average uppers and above average

 

This weekend see's them going below average before heading up again early next week before falling again later next week right at the end all 4 show the uppers going above average once again

 

 

Apart from the Aberdeen ensemble the other 3 ensembles also agree on it staying very dry to the 5th

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Is it just me that has a dirty mind!! Hehe. (centre left of pic)

 

 

Not quite the face of jesus, but still!!.

Edited August 28, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Summer Sun]

Is it just me that has a dirty mind!! Hehe. (centre left of pic)

 

gfs-0-138.png

 

Not quite the face of jesus, but still!!.

 

Yes its almost very rude

 

[draztik]

Is it just me that has a dirty mind!! Hehe. (centre left of pic)

 

gfs-0-138.png

 

Not quite the face of jesus, but still!!.

i think this shows us that we all look at these models in too much detail haha!

 

 

The EC32 for the London area shows that by large, temperatures will remain rather respectable as the month progresses, tho a normalization in rainfall totals is expected from the 6th.

 

As for the long range ensemble models, they point to low pressure being nearby...

 

Edited August 28, 2013 by draztik

[bluearmy]

naefs drifting to the ecm trough for next weekend. not as deep yet but plenty of time for it to go either way. have a feeling our luck is about to change for the worse,

[mushymanrob]

wow, the lack of posts on here speaks volumes... has frosty gone for a post summer break only to re-emerge in a week or twos time as champion cold seeker?.. :lol:

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

wow, the lack of posts on here speaks volumes... has frosty gone for a post summer break only to re-emerge in a week or twos time as champion cold seeker?..

 

Totally flat just like the current weather pattern. It confirms my belief that most people on here are weather enthusiasts rather than fans of nothingness.

Edited August 28, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[shaky]

naefs drifting to the ecm trough for next weekend. not as deep yet but plenty of time for it to go either way. have a feeling our luck is about to change for the worse,

Which one has been more accurate in the past the naefs or ecm??and also which ones better to follow judging from history?

[simshady]

Do we need a new thread??  91 pages is long....

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Do we need a new thread??  91 pages is long....

91 pages will take about 5 minutes if a Easterly appears in the height of winter.

[Captain Shortwave]

Do we need a new thread??  91 pages is long....

Probably get one at the start of the month, this one will be killed with rain and wind 

[gottolovethisweather]

Do we need a new thread??  91 pages is long....

 

Yes I suspect we do, we are lacking Model Output Discussion too it seems, judging by the last five or so posts. I'll see if I can arrange one, but please stick to the rules.

[mushymanrob]

cant see it matters how many pages there is... it can go on into the hundereds..

[draztik]

Big differences between the MetO and GFS this afternoon...

 

Both @ t144

 

 

Because of this change in pattern, warmer air is able to infiltrate the south, keeping things fairly settled and warm

 

Edited August 28, 2013 by draztik

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well this would freshen things up...

 

 

Suggestions in recent GFS FIs that the NAO may want to switch negative again as we hit autumn.

Edited August 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[hec1]

Just for the fun, one for the heat lovers

[draztik]

If the Gfs 12z was to have its way, we are in for a protracted cool spell, unsettled to boot! Normal caveats apply,

[fine wine]

I was just looking at the gfs after having not viewed it in a day or so and thinking how much the weekends low/unsettled spell had been turned down with well above average temperatures for most of England and Wales as soon as Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Weekend also looking mostly sunny.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well this would freshen things up...

 

 

Suggestions in recent GFS FIs that the NAO may want to switch negative again as we hit autumn.

SIgh

If only it could wait 6 weeks or so, then it could actually deliver something more than just cool unpleasant conditions 

It's like celebrating a chart showing a southerly plume in January, what's the point of having the synoptics and not the heat/cold pool to deliver the goods.

[Suburban Streamer]

NWP certainly seems to be picking up the currently forecasted MJO signal for weakish phase 1 as we head into september (roughly a 12 day lag). how far south any troughing digs is open to debate (as is my entire post)

 

Composite for phase 1 and the t288 gfs 12z chart looking quite similar:

 

 

Anomaly charts hinting at something similar around 11th sept, albeit, rather shortlived and indicative of a fairly swift return to something more benign soon after mid month (weak phase 2 mjo perhaps)?

 

Edited August 28, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Milhouse]

I was just looking at the gfs after having not viewed it in a day or so and thinking how much the weekends low/unsettled spell had been turned down with well above average temperatures for most of England and Wales as soon as Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Weekend also looking mostly sunny.

 

A look at Saturday and Sundays charts shows high pressure hanging on with the cool northwesterly much watered down.

 

By Monday the ECM has warm air back over the UK so a very warm day in store for much of the UK. Temperatures would be back into the mid 20s after the weekends more average temperatures.

 

[Milhouse]

Could be looking at even higher temperatures by Tuesday if the ECM is right. Some notable heat starting to move northwards towards the UK.

 

Edited August 28, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to show warming air moving back in during Sunday

 

 

By Tuesday the high is starting to change position

 

 

That low will probably move down during the next few runs bringing fresher air back

Edited August 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

 

That low will probably move down during the next few runs bringing fresher air back

 

Throughout most of the second half of summer the ECM has mostly made low pressure dive southwards in the latter stages bringing northwesterly winds, and it has never come off. The GFS in FI has been much the same in often showing cool and unsettled conditions which never happened. It will eventually be right obviously but there it goes again in FI on the ECM 0z bringing low pressure further south than it has been all summer.