Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

sorry guys but if we were to take last weeks charts then we would have been in a nice hot spell of weather. So untill the 500mb charts shows it mor than 3days in a row and i awaight j.h's comments.

The latest Gfs/Ecm 500mb mean and Noaa 6-10 500mb show more amplification as per the op runs . What surface conditions this would give and how consistent they will be is certainly still up for grabs.

[Bristawl Si]

So no sensational hot spell

But it would mean above average temps for end August/early Sept i'd think. So v warm i'd call it.

[bluearmy]

Although the 12z ecm run seems to have trended away from a deeper trough next weekend, not much has changed. Just a different nuance from the suite. Until the spreads reveal the troughing retreating ne over a few runs, it would be premature to think this is likely. There is currently too much variance in the output to make a well informed judgement.

[Methuselah]

But it would mean above average temps for end August/early Sept i'd think. So v warm i'd call it.

Warmer than average? Good enough for me...

[Man With Beard]

Totally agree with Frosty. You don't get charts much better than ECM T240, and we know from history that even 32C is not a ridiculous suggestion at this time of year.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I'm kinda thankful for that Low trying to be a nuisance as it seemed to annoy the Azores high so much, that it decided to try and come back for revenge on that ECMWF run...

 

 

But... will the Azores high really have enough power to knock away that Low for next weekend, or is it doomed? (kinda like the way the Low kind of wins briefly on the GFS 12Z run for next weekend, even though the worse of it is still concentrated to the North).

 

It will be interesting to see how the ECMWF handles that Low on the next run. If more amplification in the pattern occurs again along with the High Pressure system backing a little more further West, it could be game over for a continued, bright, settled spell for most. But if it doesn't and that the previous ECMWF runs had indeed over amplified the High Pressure system, then those of you looking for a lengthy, settled, spell, could be in luck.

 

The ECMWF 500hpa Pressure Ensemble mean doesn't look too bad anyway for rain-free weather in general (although the High could perhaps do with ridging that tiny bit North-Eastwards for Saturday on that Ensemble mean. Looks just a touch on the ropey side).

 

 

The South/South-West will probably end up being the No 1. spot to be for next weekend for bright weather as the way things seem to be going for now. Though obviously still that chance that the Low could end up being pushed away further to the North-East.

 

There certainly could end up being an elevator of emotions in this place for the next few days, with possible up and down moments experienced, as the models keep looking for the definitive solution for next weekend. ;-)

 

(Edit:)

Totally agree with Frosty. You don't get charts much better than ECM T240, and we know from history that even 32C is not a ridiculous suggestion at this time of year.

That is true, to be fair, considering some places reached around the 29 to 30*C mark in October 2011.

Edited August 25, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[bluearmy]

Gfs op and control go for high uppers in fi. (Unsupported by other gefs members). In general, the weekend trough now looks to be a ne uk issue although most of the uk will notice the drop in uppers, especially so scotland. Can we rely on week 2 depressions to stay on a w/e track at worst and not want to track se?

for the south of the uk, the next fortnight provides little sign of decent rainfall. ( they will like that in essex)

[mushymanrob]

well... after a rather pleasant week ahead, with nice warm quite sunny and dry weather, the weekend is still on course for some sort of cooler blip as a rather vigourous low passes to our north. just how much of an impact itll make is in doubt...it could introduce some pretty cool autumnal feeling weather....it might amount to nothing much at all.

 

the anomaly charts still keep the azh to our west/southwest

 

 

leaving us in a northwesterly 'upper'.. that ties in with next weekends deep low passing by.

 

the gfs and ecm (00z) though both (yet again) suggest the azh displacing and ridging in across us.

this has been shown on several runs now but has yet to happen... maybe this thime?

 

 

and the 8-14 day anomaly chart does appear to be moving towards supporting this ....

 

 

with the gfs yet again in fi going for something unseasonably hot! this evolution is very plausible once the azh displaces and drifts across us.... but the azh has got to do this yet, and this is all over a week away in deep fi... will it happen ?

 

[Polar Maritime]

The ECMWF has the Low pushing much further South on this mornings run for the end of next week, which could give way to much cooler and unsettled conditions for the North. The run continues this theme.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is another very good run for at least the southern half of england & wales with the azores/atlantic ridging being strong enough to withstand almost everything the increasingly fired up north atlantic throws at it, so plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather across central and southern parts of england and wales but on this run it's trending more unsettled further north through FI. The week ahead is very nice though, the best possible end to a very good summer overall, sunny and warm today, more cloud tomorrow with a few showers for the north and west but warm with sunny spells, especially further south & east, warm and mainly sunny on wed,thurs and fri, a bit cooler by the weekend as a weak cold front pushes southeast but followed by another pressure rise with warm and sunny weather returning to the south and east, more changeable next week across the northwest of the uk,

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Unfortunately if it is a nice countrywide autumn unsettled spell you after like me, then the overnight models are disappointing in the fact that they only bring the northern half of the UK Into play. Still time for a more southerly track but its not looking good.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to keep the worst of the low across Scotland at the weekend

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Unfortunately if it is a nice countrywide autumn unsettled spell you after like me, then the overnight models are disappointing in the fact that they only bring the northern half of the UK Into play. Still time for a more southerly track but its not looking good.

As I mentioned last night ,the gfs and ecm are a bunch of comedians at the moment with there output, and as regards this coming weekend ,if I can see a trend amongst the mangled junk the models are throwing out, it looks as though we will be getting some lovely fresh, cool Autumn air as a cold front slips southeast by Saturday. But as for any output past the weekend coming, its all big fantasy island stuff!  

[Summer Sun]

although it does turn a bit cooler by Sunday ECM also keeps the worst of the low away with just a glancing blow for arts of Scotland

 

 

After a 1 day cool blip the warm air returns from the west

 

 

Further on it looks like a north south split driest and warmest in the south slightly more unsettled for the north a times (no wash out) and slightly cooler

 

 

The ECM ensemble and Anomaly both support high pressure at day 10 over the UK and low pressure over Greenland keeping this quite spell of weather going

 

 

Edited August 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks like an improvement on the 12z last night, especially for the southern half of the uk where the azores/atlantic ridge looks strongest, the atlantic threat is significantly reduced compared to the 0z op run. So, for the southern half of the uk it looks generally warm and settled with long sunny spells and light winds, just a very brief cooler/fresher blip at the end of the week and then warming up again but progressively more mobile atlantic conditions further north but even the north of the uk having a decent amount of warm and sunny conditions.

Edited August 26, 2013 by Frosty039

[MP-R]

Seems like heatwave conditions are always reserved for FI but the reliable also has plenty of settled weather on offer for the majority of the UK. I'm just hoping the fine weather can continue until at least Friday as I have a BBQ in the evening - August's last chance to redeem itself. The GFS in particular shows a possible cool blip around next weekend before high pressure returns, perhaps in a more favourable position for sunshine than now in FI.

[shedhead]

Seems like heatwave conditions are always reserved for FI but the reliable also has plenty of settled weather on offer for the majority of the UK. I'm just hoping the fine weather can continue until at least Friday as I have a BBQ in the evening - August's last chance to redeem itself. The GFS in particular shows a possible cool blip around next weekend before high pressure returns, perhaps in a more favourable position for sunshine than now in FI.

That'll be the September one then?  Still waiting for the August one to start here...

 

Looks like another fairly bog standard week coming up as far as the country as a whole is concerned, but clearly parts of the south will be a little warmer than average, with parts of the north a little cooler.

 

All eyes now on the weekend low, but I think we will see the models tending to bring the cooler, more unsettled conditions ever further SW'wards as we go through the coming days. Don't envisage the kind of synoptics thrown up by ECM recently, but equally I don't think everything will get shoved so far east that all areas miss the mini plunge....we'll have to wait for Winter to see that kind of thing happen... 

 

Could be some pretty low minima around come Sunday morning away from the far southwest, with perhaps the first widespread ground frost of the Autumn.

 

Edited August 26, 2013 by shedhead

[draztik]

The ECM control (EPS) shows a more mobile Atlantic from its 12z output. It shows a showery weekend for the north, followed by rain (heavy at times) by Monday 2, mostly affecting Scotland and NI. Thereafter HP settles things down once more, esp favouring the South, with the north prone with lower pressure here. LP then dominates by the weekend of the 7th. The model ends its run with the low just to the east of the UK, with a HP cell trying to move in from the west.

in terms of temp, it shows a cooler weekend approaching, before returning to average temps, slightly above in the south. A further cool spell approaches around the weekend of the 7th, and it stays cool until it ends its run.

the weather gods aren't favouring the weekends at present!!

edit: I've just noticed the 0z control model has updated. There have been tweaks in its trend, subtle at the start more pronounced as time progresses. It is showing a rather unsettled period firstly affecting the North around Sept 2, before becoming more nationwide for the week, with showers longer spells of rain. A vigorous low then is seen to impact Southern Britain between 7th thru 9th September.

Edited August 26, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

Well I have to say the GEFS 00z mean is looking even better than it has recently with an even more summery spell next week, yes the charts next week look even better than this week and considering how nice and warm this week is going to be, that is really saying something, almost to mid september the latest mean is showing warm to very warm anticyclonic conditions, there is just that annoying little cooler blip at around T+144 hours as that spoiler trough dives southeastwards but missing the uk to the north and only briefly pushing the azores ridge back slightly before it builds in again with what looks like a prolonged summery pattern stretching into the first weeks of autumn, that would be amazing, there is certainly nothing about the latest output that screams full blown atlantic breakdown, quite the opposite in fact.

[TonyH]

If dry and warm with sunny spells is bog so be it shed

[Methuselah]

It is true that the best of the summer-like conditions are usually reserved for FI. But what about the ever-present predictions of 'autumnal' weather? I'm almost certain that 'breakdowns' have been wished upon us ever since the middle of June...IMO, even the GFS doesn't pick out trends three months' ahead of time.

 

And, the CFS? Well that picks up more trends than those eejits what think there's a 'system' for playing the Lotto! 

[shedhead]

It is true that the best of the summer-like conditions are usually reserved for FI. But what about the ever-present predictions of 'autumnal' weather? I'm almost certain that 'breakdowns' have been wished upon us ever since the middle of June...IMO, even the GFS doesn't pick out trends three months' ahead of time.

 

And, the CFS? Well that picks up more trends than those eejits what think there's a 'system' for playing the Lotto! 

Much like the ever present predictions of 'hot spells and heatwaves' you mean?

 

One or two in the SE might agrue Sat was a tad Autumnal too...

Edited August 26, 2013 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

After a minor blip this weekend the uppers make a swift return to above average from next Monday or Tuesday with rainfall remaining very low

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z makes a bit more of the weekend trough as it makes brief inroads into scotland and drags a stronger cool nw'ly flow down across the uk but actually, this run shows a dry and bright weekend for the southern half of the uk with sunny spells although temperatures into the low to mid 60's F instead of mid 70's, however, it looks more unsettled with rain and showers for northern britain for a day or two, beyond the weekend it's high pressure all the way and soon warming up again, very much as the Gefs 00z mean shows, most of the uk becoming fine, sunny and warm again. Coming back to this week, a really nice end to the meteorological summer of 2013 with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius with lots of sunshine and light winds, that brief cooler breezier blip at the weekend and then once that trough is out of the way, the jet is forced way north again as high pressure builds in for round 2, which could be even better than this week.

Edited August 26, 2013 by Frosty039

[TootyFruity]

What I don't understand about all the model watching that happens on this thread is all the constant point scoring with certain posters ... It's given a nice week slightly cooler at the weekend before the high pressure builds again in FI so why do certain people keep badgering on about a breakdown and No heateave in august etc etc ..... The weather will do what the weather wants to do so why the point scoring !!!

As a learner on here it's very frustrating when your trying to get to grips with the constant technical terms and charts and then someone is chipping in with something that's just simply having a go at others .

Some on here are accused of being biased towards heat ie Frosty but as far as I can see frosty tells you exactly what the charts are showing for example today's output he's mentioned the low at the weekend he hasn't ignored it but I've no doubt that later someone will say he has .

It's silly and as a learner It would be nice to just come on and read about what people have posted about the models .