Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Methuselah]

Yes I still think it will only be a glancing blow across the far northeast of the uk with high pressure soon rebuilding, or it could be even better with the trough gradually shunted even further northeast as time goes on.

And, as the weather is in transit (between summer and autumn mode) such things will happen...

[J10]

Not too bad for South Western areas always closer to the Azores High, with NW winds and Decent Pressure.

 

However it cannot be denied than GFS has moved towards ECM this evening, however there remain differences which will have a big differenece on the ground. GFS has pressure of at least 1020mb at all times for SW areas, with 850HPA temps above 5c at all times. Certainly there have been occasions this summer than low presure was indicated too far south at this far out in similar timeframes, only to be adjusted further north closer to the event. How many times in winters past have such NW topplers been edged further east closer to the time. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Careful guys. Already some are treating next weekend with certainty. Have you learnt from this weekend? Certainly a trend towards something cooler but after this week where the models have a made a fool of us ALL week, I wont be fully accepting what is shown till probably T72.

 

Looks like my timing back to Cornwall will be perfect to get closest to that Azores High! hehe.

Edited August 25, 2013 by Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

For England, Wales and most of Ireland Friday doesn't look too bad at all with pressure remaining high Scotland looks more unsettled as you'll be closer to the low here

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T144

 

You can only laugh really, gets all the models to back it's output to a certain degree then drops the trend 

Who knows what will happen next weekend

Edited August 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Just as GFS moves to ECM, ECM flips back to GFS's original idea and it shifts the low further north don't bank on next weekend begin cooler yet

 

I've placed UKMO on the right to compare the two pretty good agreement between the two

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

T168 the low is out the way and high pressure is back based on this evening's UKMO and ECM runs its only Scotland which gets the tail edge of the low

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst there is an improvement in the output, the ECM would still suggest a chilly start to September

 

Probably a ground frost in the north I would suspect.

Still it will warm up quickly as the high drifts east.

[Milhouse]

This is the GEFS 12z mean chart for next weekend. Just looks like a normal reload of high pressure with a temporary cooler period.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

t192 we have a very deep low across Greenland and Iceland and high pressure over the UK with it returns the warm air

 

 

The high continues at t216 as does the warmer air

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

After 1 cooler day on Sunday the warm uppers are lurking ready to push back in.

 

High pressure asserting its dominance

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

I feel one of Frosty's banks coming along this evening for tonight's ECM

[Captain Shortwave]

Hah euro trough to euro high in one run

Where's my salt lorry, probably going to need to use it again 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Hah euro trough to euro high in one run

Where's my salt lorry, probably going to need to use it again 

 

Yep a very warm end to ECM this evening with +10 uppers covering all of the UK

 

 

Temperatures would easily hit the mid 20's

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

I have used the words glancing blow a few times today to describe the impact of that pesky spoiler trough and tonight's Ecm 12z is showing exactly that, the trough swinging southeastwards from iceland looks like only taking a swipe at northeast scotland before clearing out of the way and enabling another significant pressure rise from the southwest, the ecm shows most of the uk barely troubled by this trough, the only effect it has for most of us is a very brief incursion of cooler oceanic air but this is soon swamped by a much warmer tropical maritime airmass which then trends towards continental warmth as the anticyclone becomes centred to the southeast of the uk. So, the week ahead is a fitting end to a very good summer where heat records have been broken and most of the uk has had it's best summer weather since 2006. A dry and warm week ahead with long sunny spells and light winds, a bit cloudier at times but very good weather overall with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius, then a cooler blip next weekend but dry and bright and then another spell of increasingly warm and sunny weather through early september. Tonight's Ecm would bring a sensational early autumn hot spell.........B A N K  

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A sensational early autumn hot spell frosty?. I've just looked at the corresponding max temps on yr.no (forecasts based on ECM), forecast max for London on 3rd September for instance is 20c.

[ANYWEATHER]

Models are like comedians tonight {gfs/ecm]     Just look for a trend....  

[cobbett]

A nice sunny 20Ñ would be perfect for early September

[Summer Sun]

A sensational early autumn hot spell frosty?. I've just looked at the corresponding max temps on yr.no (forecasts based on ECM), forecast max for London on 3rd September for instance is 20c.

 

The Met office / BBC's extended forecast has a range of 17c to 25c on the 3rd of September so low to mid 20's seems the most realistic guess at the moment for early September

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The Met office / BBC's extended forecast has a range of 17c to 25c on the 3rd of September so low to mid 20's seems the most realistic guess at the moment for early September

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

So no sensational hot spell

[Summer Sun]

So no sensational hot spell

 

25c in September is very good going

 

sensational hot spell is probably ott I admit I'd call it pleasantly warm

[Frosty.]

Those ecm charts I posted tonight show an anticyclone becoming centred to the southeast of the uk which enables very warm or hot air to drift up from france, I stand by what I said before.

[syed2878]

sorry guys but if we were to take last weeks charts then we would have been in a nice hot spell of weather. So untill the 500mb charts shows it mor than 3days in a row and i awaight j.h's comments.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the Euro models have eased off the intense southward digging of the upper trough for next weekend meaning any north-westerly will not be as potent as this mornings charts. Only the GEM is showing anything particularly nasty.

Again both GFS/ECM ens show a strong building of pressure from the Azores at days 9/10. Again this must be treated with caution over the specifics (wind flow, temperature etc), but it would be safe to say that the Azores high will be one of the dominant feature for many days to come.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble at day 10 is settled

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun