Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[MP-R]

There's no other way of saying this but the GFS 12Z is absolutely stunning, plume after plume after plume - August would turn out to be wonderful for summer heat and thunderstorm lovers alike.

 

Without getting too carried away though, it looks like this week's plume may last a tad longer than first though i.e. into Friday, not just Thursday, a transition day on Saturday before high pressure moves in on Sunday. Just need to get tomorrow's rain out the way though the persistent stuff could possibly stay south of the M4 with more showery rain further north. Either way, after the current cooler blip things look like warming/hotting up by midweek.

[chris55]

A definite shift in the mid range from ECM and GFS today, after our initial plume on Thurs/Fri the general pattern looks more favourable to warmth than previously. Not followed every run but the general theme looks much more interesting if you like it hot.

 

[shedhead]

Well once again the 12 GFS builds pressure next week, but I just don't know whether we can trust this evolution quite yet. 

 

Only 24-36hrs ago things looked very different, so who is to say we won't see another shift towards low pressure again over the next 3 or 4 runs, but for now a much drier and pleasantly warm outlook appears to be gathering some sort of momentum.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good ensemble mean for the start of next week

[Mark Neal.]

An intriguing set of runs so far today, building upto next week only 24hrs looked like unsettled conditions would be taking a foot hold, but a change in play today as a pressure rise keeps showing signs next week and the 12gfs is a blow torch run, keeps reloading heat and i'm sure storms would be close by again. Its Bristol Balloon Fiesta next Thursday to Sunday (8-11th) so need it dry and light winds i prefer the morning runs, slack pressure over us!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well once again the 12 GFS builds pressure next week, but I just don't know whether we can trust this evolution quite yet. 

 

Only 24-36hrs ago things looked very different, so who is to say we won't see another shift towards low pressure again over the next 3 or 4 runs, but for now a much drier and pleasantly warm outlook appears to be gathering some sort of momentum.

I agree to a certain extent,im not sure the direction of the trough is nailed yet so anything after is uncertain,however,some sort of pressure build from the south looks likely now.

[mushymanrob]

the 12z gfs is a stunner! as several have posted plume after plume.. if this became reality it certainly would elevate 2013 into the realms of 'one to remember'.. unfortunately its  likely to be an outlier.

 

the ecm suggests pressure rise of some discription, but its messy.

 

its clear that after the expected plume later this week its far from certain what will evolve. but signes must be on the positive side for sun/heat/summer lovers.

[TEITS]

Despite the medium and long range models previously showing a break down to wet and cooler weather, the main models have consistently shown this not to be absolutely the case with another possible heat reload nearer the time!

Yes you're right as this has been the general theme with the models for much of this month.

 

Im delighted with the output not just because of the potential but also from a forecasting perspective. I said around a week ago I expected the same pattern to continue and that currently looks the case. So the outlook for me continues to be warm with spells of very warm or even hot temperatures. This accompanied by thundery outbreaks at times.

 

Amazingly the GEFS control run is just as warm as the GFS Op!!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

[Scorcher]

 

Only 24-36hrs ago things looked very different, so who is to say we won't see another shift towards low pressure again over the next 3 or 4 runs, but for now a much drier and pleasantly warm outlook appears to be gathering some sort of momentum.

 

This has been shown for a fair few runs now- all the models, from what I've seen have shown the trend for high pressure to build from the south. I can't really recall any runs that have shown low pressure dominating recently, most have shown it stalling out to the west and the recent trend has been for it to move away to the north allowing pressure to build.

[Man With Beard]

ECM joins GFS op and control runs for next week

 

 

JMA also quite tasty for those after the heat

Forecasts of an Atlantic dominated beginning to August are not looking too good now. The difficulty in long-term forecasting is evident again here. Many thought August may be the opposite of July, and up until about 4 days ago this looked a possibility. But the problem was that the heat was never far away  and a variation of just a few hundred miles in the pattern would throw predictions of an unsettled August out of the window, as indeed is happening before our eyes. After tomorrow, it looks like at least a week of hot and sunny weather interspersed by temporary thundery breakdowns. Beyond that, not exactly a repeat of July but prospects look better for upper heights than lower heights right now

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

 

Forecasts of an Atlantic dominated beginning to August are not looking too good now. The difficulty in long-term forecasting is evident again here. Many thought August may be the opposite of July, and up until about 4 days ago this looked a possibility.

 

Erm the only issue being there is 31 days in August and the charts you posted are from the 5th......meaning there would be another 26 days of August left after that point? Given model volatility to this point, let's not count too many chickens eh.

 

It's looking a lot more promising for heat lovers tonight however, that cannot be denied.

Edited July 29, 2013 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

The ECM is quite consistent now in its FI output of troughing developing over Iberia, beforehand that separate high cell off the Azores high edges ne, a similar set up occurred before that hot weather last week for the UK.

The interest really comes as to where this troughing sets up if it verifies, this will decide whether its heatwave part 2 or just a hot blip.

I'd be wary of the outputs showing a quick ejection ene of this troughing as we had much the same suggestion in FI before and as we've seen the models were far too progressive.

I think the GFS in its FI looks a bit more likely with the trough ejecting more ne/n, generally I'm happy to ignore the lower resolution GFS but when you're in very much a stalemate pattern its normally the default recent synoptics that seems most likely.

Theres no real catalyst here for a major change over Europe, the MJO signal is weak and until that changes then a big change over Europe is unlikely, within this stalemate though is pinning down the detail which is a difficult job because of the big differences felt on the ground depending on where exactly any troughing sets up, a couple of hundred miles either way which is tiny on a global level will make a big difference.

[Djdazzle]

Looking good again then .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/7895297/Britain-set-to-swelter-under-hot-temperatures-as-heatwave-returns.html

  

That report is dated July 2010 . . .

[Bonjangle]

That report is dated July 2010 . . .

I know that is why I deleted it , the page date was of today though .

My apologies

[Djdazzle]

I know that is why I deleted it , the page date was of today though .My apologies

No worries, although I didn't spot the date until after I'd read it. However, I daresay that the Express will be putting out something similar soon!

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

ok its not bone dry but plenty of warmth(hot tbh) around on these

 

yoyo springs to mind...

[Milhouse]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

ok its not bone dry but plenty of warmth(hot tbh) around on these

 

yoyo springs to mind...

 

2 distinct peaks there bringing more very warm or hot conditions. The most the mean gets below average is round about now and London still saw 24c today.

[ANYWEATHER]

What is interesting on tonights ecm and gfs is that both models build pressure at t+144, but both drop the pressure 48hrs later at+192! Looks to me that any pressure rise is short lived...  

[Frosty.]

Well, what an EPIC summer this is turning into, and if these charts are anything to be believed, there will be a lot more hot weather in the coming weeks, hot plumes galore on the Gfs 12z, mouthwatering charts in FI, the Ecm 12z also has it's highlights with the uk flirting with some very hot weather further east which occasionally makes inroads into the east and southeast, it's a complex but slack pattern and there is no sign of the atlantic firing up just yet, most of our upcoming weather has a continental flavour to it, like a boomerang, the heat just keeps coming back and long may that continue for the rest of this summer. In the meantime, the next hot plume is incoming, a few hot and sultry days and nights incoming later this week, high 20's to low 30's celsius looks well within our reach on thursday & friday and a risk of storms, then by the weekend it looks like pressure will be rising and a nice warm anticyclonic spell developing into next week, and a chance of more hot plumes popping up next week and beyond, it's FANTASTIC.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the latest model analysis summary from Gibby

 

In Summary it is shaping up to be that this August is a much more thundery period than years of late. The synoptic pattern shown on all models is ideal for shower and storm development either home grown or imported from the Continent as shallow Low pressure continues to engage the permanent hot fields of Europe over the next few weeks. As always there will be some places that will miss the showers and storms with dry and fine weather. Temperatures overall look like staying above average for much of the time and well above average on occasion, especially in the SE.

 

Full summary as ever can be found here - http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Lincstim]

Frosty, this better mean there chance of precipitation for Saturday in scunny has not risen and we are going to be thunderstormed (made up word) out!!!!

We need a dry music fest!!!!!!

[nick sussex]

Frosty, this better mean there chance of precipitation for Saturday in scunny has not risen and we are going to be thunderstormed (made up word) out!!!!We need a dry music fest!!!!!!

At the moment it looks like the main chance of thunderstorms will be Friday night, a front should clear through then, Saturday there is a chance of showers though, if your festival is on Sunday aswell at the moment that looks good with a ridge of high pressure moving in from the sw.Still just too far ahead to be sure of though but hope it goes well for you.

[Milhouse]

The models are starting to firm up on another warm spell commencing during the second half of the weekend and lasting on into next week. The exact duration of this spell is still unsure but at the moment it is shown to last for roughly 2/3 days. The breakdown is shown to be arriving from the south so more heat and storms could be on the cards.

[Lincstim]

Unfortunately Saturday but camping over night into Sunday midday.

I'm just glued to this page but its like watching a foreign movie .................. Without subtitles lol

[Dancerwithwings]

Best quote in ages ...."I'm just glued to this page but its like watching a foreign movie .................. Without subtitles"