Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Cheshire Freeze]

 benign further outlook.

 

We don't need benign. It's been benign here for the best part of 2 years. No storms for 2 years, no noticeable gales, just static weather. I'd actually be pleased if that tropical storm lashed us instead of skirting N and weakening.

[Frosty.]

We don't need benign. It's been benign here for the best part of 2 years. No storms for 2 years, no noticeable gales, just static weather. I'd actually be pleased if that tropical storm lashed us instead of skirting N and weakening.

Yep I think that tropical storm might put the cat amongst the pigeons as far as the outlook is concerned.

[davehsug]

Yep I think that tropical storm might put the cat amongst the pigeons as far as the outlook is concerned.

Anything that will get systems moving again & remove the threat of days on end of cold North Westerly winds. I want some mist & mellow fruitfulness type weather first!

[William of Walworth]

We don't need benign. It's been benign here for the best part of 2 years. No storms for 2 years, no noticeable gales, just static weather. I'd actually be pleased if that tropical storm lashed us instead of skirting N and weakening.

 

 

I think this post could be (?) a truly excellent summary of some earlier posts' warnings about seasonal Agendas!

 

My own personal season, synoptic model-wise, absolutely stops after somewhere around about Monday September 30th.

 

Have your Autumn, Winter or inbetween FUN after that, everyone, cos I'm unlikely to be back much until Spring once October starts ...

 

But until then ....

 

This very tail end of 'Summer' poster will 'agenda'-post and hopecast as much as I want for a reasonably non stormy, non rainy, non windy next weekend and the one after ...

 

(Objective  version of above : Obviously I remain far from optimistic at all for nice n dry, because the exceptionally volatile current 'output' realistically warns me not to be .... still, as many say, everything remains to play for in the short/medium term. For now ...)

Edited September 12, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think this post could be (?) a truly excellent summary of some earlier posts' warnings about seasonal Agendas!

 

My season stops after somewhere around about Monday September 30th.

 

Have your Autumn, Winter or inbetween FUN after that, everyone, cos I'm unlikely to be back much until Spring once October starts ...

 

But until then ....

 

This very tail end of Summer poster will 'agenda'-post/hopecast as much as I want for a reasonably non stormy, non rainy, non windy next weekend and the one after ...

 

(Objective  version of above : Obviously I remain far from optimistic at all for nice, because the exceptionally volatile current 'output' realistically warns me not to be .... still, as many say, everything remains to play for in the short/medium term. For now ...)

 

That's the difference between a biased post disguised as 'analysis' and one which simply states desires. Notice I didn't try and say that it WOULD track over/lash us- there's no evidence to support that eventuality!

[Frosty.]

Anything that will get systems moving again & remove the threat of days on end of cold North Westerly winds. I want some mist & mellow fruitfulness type weather first!

Fully agree, that is still the form horse once that pesky trough clears off late next week.

[Tamara]

I don't think anything has changed overall, we have known most of next week will be a bit cool and unsettled for a few days now and the extended ensemble mean charts are still showing a significant improvement further ahead, as are the met office, I don't understand how anyone could really bet against what the met office are saying, they are the experts...I don't think that low will regenerate and continue to haunt us beyond next friday, the azores/atlantic anticyclone will give it a shove once it begins to weaken later next week, i'm not buying a cool unsettled outlook at all.

I've been giving it time to see the way ahead, but there is no doubt that this is the opening salvo for the shorter seasons and on the basis that a lot of comparisons have been given to this summer season echoing 2006 in terms of duration of warmth etc, if not exactly per se, then the notable difference has been the jet stream patterns that have rather been much keener to echo the post 2006 period and that is clear enough from the current charts we see . There could well be another pleasant warm spell to end the late season, and I for one still would very much welcome that as it is very early in the autumn season  But there is interest there for sure how the jet pattern might find its way to the properly short days when 'interesting' winter synoptics start to become possible.

 

In MOD strict terms this is way in the future and for another thread, but it is inevitable that people are going to examine these patterns with interest in the here and now output and speculate where they may lead on the basis that they have been sustained already for some time. It makes for interesting discussion, as long as it is kept pertinent to the current model output as the starting point

Edited September 12, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

I've been giving it time to see the way ahead, but there is no doubt that this is the opening salvo for the shorter seasons and on the basis that a lot of comparisons have been given to this summer season echoing 2006 in terms of duration of warmth etc, if not exactly per se, then the notable difference has been the jet stream patterns that have rather been much keener to echo the post 2006 period and that is clear enough from the current charts we see . There could well be another pleasant warm spell to end the late season, and I for one still would still very much welcome that as it is still very early in the autumn season  But there is interest there for sure how the jet pattern might find its way to the properly short days when 'interesting' winter synoptics start to become possible.

 

In MOD strict terms this is way in the future and for another thread, but it is inevitable that people are going to examine these patterns with interest in the here and now output and speculate where they may lead on the basis that they have been sustained already for some time. It makes for interesting discussion, as long as it is kept pertinent to the current model output as the starting point

Absolutely tamara, my opinions seem unpopular today despite the fact I'm describing what the models are showing..never mind, I'm supporting the met office with their mists and mellow fruitfulness further outlook.

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess in the end there are trends for the jet to push further south in the coming week(s) and inevitably autumn will become a regular feature as opposed to the every now and again we have at the current time. The fact I've been trying to find charts showing northerlies perhaps shows I am mellowing to the autumn winds. Face it one slack cold northerly gave my region as many thunderstorms on Monday night as the whole summer of 2013 did. Quite unbelievable really.

Still those wanting warmth and sun should not give up hope. I am absolutely certain that no model is near correct in the long term as hurricane Humberto will likely throw a spanner in the works and who knows what will happen when he makes into into our part of the Atlantic and with the hurricane season finally showing a little gusto, who knows what will enter our waters. 

Either way I am on the fence as to how things will go beyond the weekend. It might be until Sunday when we finally know what will happen as is the mess tropical storms create on the model front. 

Bring on the storms, bring on Humberto who will soon probably be dubbed the netweather troll 

By the way, watch out for developments next Tuesday, 

 

Classic Autumn storm set up this one. Could be a wild day for the south. This is also shown on the fax chart

Just to get the storm lovers interested.

Edited September 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

im sorry im sticking to my guns I can only see in one direction right now and that's alantic domination for the foreseeable of coarse we will get more settled spells as systems move through but overall trend cool unsettled and normal autumn which of coarse is how autumn should be so its across the board that unsettled weather could well continue.

 

but hey could be wrong but im very confident im not.

 

tbh i think you may be right, it wouldnt surprise me if we get an atlantic dominated regime for some time with some pretty deep depressions. ok the gfs (bless it) still insists on a pressure build later next week... but its been doing that for some time now, only for it to be pushed back every time. the gfs statistically isnt the most reliable of models, but should be heeded not ignored, it does pick up on new trends...like the heatwave for eg.. (or the thaw in dec 10).

 

so i wouldnt place too much emphisis on the gfs's pressure build @ t144 + unless the ecm and anomalies offer support.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T144

 

GFS

 

GEM

UKMO

 

ECM handles Humberto differently to the others and disagrees with the handling of the tropical storm on last nights run. GFS/GEM build high pressure near or over the UK, UKMO would probably be heading the same way.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows that pesky trough declaring it's love for the uk at T+144 hours...awwww... but then it leaves us by next friday with pressure rising in it's wake, so by the end of next week it looks more benign with sunny spells and light winds and feeling pleasant in the sunshine but with overnight fog patches, further ahead the mean shows a slow moving atlantic low and winds across the uk from a southwesterly quarter so temps would be reasonable with higher pressure further east although our weather would become a mix of sunshine and a few showers with persistent rain across the far west & north, it's not a bad outlook once the autumn low departs.

[Coast]

Must be time for new thread now, this ones been running since July?

[Captain Shortwave]

Go on then, don't forget the tagline "the hunt for cold" 

[ANYWEATHER]

In short staying very unsettled and cooler/colder, next week looks like alternating with milder cooler spells and rain at times too.On toT+168 which is indeed FI but what do the models do with the ex-Hurricane Humberto? Gfs makes more of it than ecm. Imho it looks like its gonna get a free ride on the jet stream and slam us with wind and rain!!!  

Edited September 13, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[johnholmes]

A look at where Humberto is and how the two main models deal with its change into an ex tropical storm in the Atlantic, will it affect the UK?

 

 

Humberto where is and what happens to it 14 sept 13.pdf

Edited September 13, 2013 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

Sunday sees winds slowly increasing through the day for Scotland and parts of the north

 

Mondays low is a northern event more so for Scotland for most of England we escape the worst of the winds the one exception for England could be high open ground ie the pennines

 

 

By Tuesday the low is becoming weaker

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Go on then, don't forget the tagline "the hunt for cold" 

Or searching for the sausage shaped high, we have a heart shaped low on the gefs 00z mean at t+144 hours so why not?

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on the models

 

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 13th 2013.

 

All models including the Fax Charts are very much in agreement on the course of events over the coming 4-5 days taking us towards the middle of next week. A rippling front across Southern Britain will pep up this morning to give a wet period later today and tonight, clearing the SE only slowly tomorrow. Clearer and fresher weather over Northern Britain today will extend to all areas tomorrow as a weak ridge passes over. Then on Sunday a deep and vigorous Low pressure area is shown by all models to be close to Northern Scotland with a series of fronts crossing East across the UK with rain for all, heavy in places and gales in the North. then following a cold front a spell of windy, very cool and showery weather will arrive in time for the new week with a spell of more persistent rain across the South at some point through Tuesday as a secondary Low feature runs across Southern Britain from the West with showers returning for Wednesday.

 

GFS then shows the weather slowly improving from the SW as the latter half of the run commences with some drier spells between a little rain at times in the South with the more unsettled weather more likely in the north. Following a dry and bright few days across Southern Britain the operational shows a return to changeable conditions for all with some rain at times to end the run though with a SW feed it would become quite warm and humid feeling.

 

The GFS Ensembles look distinctly Autumnal this morning with a period of cool and windy weather shown by most members through the coming week lifting only slowly towards more average uppers later in the run. The operational runs warm end proves it to be a warm outlier in among a majority of rather cooler options. throughout the run rainfall is a common feature with less evidence of a lessening of amounts later in the run shown today.

 

The Jet Stream continues to fire over the Atlantic strengthening markedly at the weekend as it powers SE across the UK. It then looks like holding firm at this position for much of next week holding Low pressure close to the East and encouraging further developments to keep the changeable and often cool theme going.

 

UKMO today closes it's run with a slacker Northerly flow on the departure of low pressure over northern Germany. Some showers are still likely over the UK but winds will be lighter and in any clear skies overnight the risk of mist and fog and even ground frost is very possible.

 

GEM today shows a cool and windy middle of next week still with plenty of showers in a cool NW flow. Later in the week and weekend High pressure builds from the SW with rainfall lighter and more intermittent with a dry spell developing for all at the end of the run as High pressure takes hold with decent days and mist and fog overnight.

 

NAVGEM slides the Low pressure down the East coast of the UK next week with maintained cool and showery NW then North and NE winds. Slightly less unsettled conditions do look possible at the end of the run there is still plenty of scope for low pressure to keep the unsettled theme going.

 

ECM today keeps Low pressure in some shape or form close to the East and NE of the UK maintaining a cool and unsettled period with rain at times for all in often cool and blustery NW winds.

 

In Summary today the weather looks like showing and proving that we are now entering Autumn with cool, windy and showery weather the order of most of the output for much of next week. Leaving aside the natural variability at longer range between the models with a more Southerly Jet flow predicted now there is more chance that the Azores High will have less of an impact on the UK weather as Low pressure is forced on a more Southerly track over the UK or North Sea than of late with pressure likely to become somewhat higher in the Arctic.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Summer Sun]

The ECM 30 dayer for Glasgow shows a recovery in temperatures over the next week or so with average temperatures to end the month and start October

 

 

The Birmingham ensemble is no longer available which is why I haven't posted it in a while

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

That is a pretty staggering anomaly chart for September from the last 5 years Steve.

 

It made me look at the anomaly charts for the last 5 years for winter - again we see the theme of a very disrupted polar vortex:

 

December

 

I believe that we will follow a similar pattern this winter - west QBO or not.

 

Hi Chiono-

 

Missed this last night-

 

Yep I agree, I think there have been a few fundamental changes in the last 5 years associated with the feedbacks being generated from the low ice conditions-  I think theres 2 feedbacks-

 

* The thermal gradient weakness for autumn - in terms of increased polar blocking-

* Low base state of snow cover ( starting point ) in Sept with rapid increases in October / Nov - feeding into the AO base state.

 

Looking forward to Winter!

[Frosty.]

This chart sums up the Ecm 00z op run, it's just as dismal as last night with cool, wet and windy weather  dominating, i'm mystified why anyone would be happy with this in mid to late september when there is potential warmth and sunshine still to be had!

[Methuselah]

Closing shortly. New thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=new_post&f=146