Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[draztik]

GEM still shows the worst of the LP to our SW, meaning the further North you are, the better your chances.

 

 

All eyes on the ECM, tho it is important to note, there is a trend towards pushing the Low further North sooner, as the GEM 0z had the low over the Bay of Biscay by 162, whereas on the 12z at 156 its over the SW of England.

 

(Sorry CS, didnt see your comments before I posted)

Edited September 3, 2013 by draztik

[Yarmy]

Well the GEM isn't as awful as the other two

 

 

#strawclutching 

 

Yeah, the rain in GEM falls mainly on the Spain. Hey ho, let's see what the ECM does.

[Captain Shortwave]

Another possbile player in our weather could be ex-tropical storm kiko, the GEM has been showing this for several runs and now the GFS has picked up on it, though just a weak feature for now

Just leaving the Eastern seaboard 

 

GEM for the same time

 

If that storm comes into play with the trough/high battle royale over us, it could get very messy.

Edited September 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Good agreement with the 12Z GFS and UKMO re placement of low at T96.

 

gfs-0-96.png

 

UW96-21.gif

 

Wonder if the 12Z ECM will follow suit?

 

... but it doesnt really matter a t96, it was always into next week, so t144 that matters most. thats when the low was/is expected to be over biscay. of course that only if its heat/thunder youre looking for. personally, its still 6 days away, so what shows today-friday even with agreement is still uncertain.

[Captain Shortwave]

I found a warm run, go perturbation 16 

 

 

#epic strawclutching

 

The ens

 

Edited September 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

... but it doesnt really matter a t96, it was always into next week, so t144 that matters most. thats when the low was/is expected to be over biscay. of course that only if its heat/thunder youre looking for. personally, its still 6 days away, so what shows today-friday even with agreement is still uncertain.

 

Surely it does matter a lot? because last nights 00Z of the big 3 all showed the LP in different places. Now there is agreement between 2, obviously if you don't get agreement at T96 then it matters diddly squat what happens after T144?

Edited September 3, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

 

I guess if the models are showing similar tomorrow, then it's probably case closed on the weekend.

Edited September 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

 

I guess if the models are showing similar tomorrow, then it's probably case closed on the weekend.

But at it's the models trying to keep up with the weather, rather than t'other way round...

[Gael_Force]

Another possbile player in our weather could be ex-tropical storm kiko, the GEM has been showing this for several runs and now the GFS has picked up on it, though just a weak feature for now

 

Just leaving the Eastern seaboard 

 

GEM for the same time

 

 

If that storm comes into play with the trough/high battle royale over us, it could get very messy.

 

 

There may well be a tropical storm somewhere down the line but it will be nothing to do with the EPac ex Kiko.

 

GEM rapidly develops invest 97L after 3 days and has a vigorous system hitting Bermuda.at +126 hours.

 

[draztik]

all change on the ecm 12z. The HP to the north, that it showed in 0z, has been replaced with lower pressure. Still very little consensus after Saturday seemingly.

Edited September 3, 2013 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

all change on the ecm 12z. The HP to the north, that it showed in 0z, has been replaced with lower pressure. Still very little consensus after Saturday seemingly.

 

That should help high pressure to re-build over the UK if it continues

 

[Summer Sun]

As expected it does indeed help pressure to begin to rebuild

 

[draztik]

That should help high pressure to re-build over the UK if it continues

i was thinking along the same lines, but at t168 it shows

Edited September 3, 2013 by draztik

[Captain Shortwave]

There may well be a tropical storm somewhere down the line but it will be nothing to do with the EPac ex Kiko.

 

GEM rapidly develops invest 97L after 3 days and has a vigorous system hitting Bermuda.at +126 hours.

 

Ah thanks for that, I don't pay much attention down there, just been interested because the last 4 or 5 GEM ops have developed this feature.

[Summer Sun]

i was thinking along the same lines, but at t168 it shows

 

Lets see what t192 has its going in the right direction

 

With pressure low over Greenland its got every chance of building

 

Edited September 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

With the difficulty in pin-pointing Synoptics at the T72 - T120 range, does it really matter what T192+ shows?

[Summer Sun]

T192 has pressure on the rise once more

 

[draztik]

To be frank, the ECM is turning into a dogs breakfast! I don't think we are any clearer on what the weather will do post t96!

[ANYWEATHER]

To be frank, the ECM is turning into a dogs breakfast! I don't think we are any clearer on what the weather will do post t96!

Other than it remains unsettled, with low pressure over or nearby the Uk! 

[A.J]

With the difficulty in pin-pointing Synoptics at the T72 - T120 range, does it really matter what T192+ shows?

yes, otherwise what's the point of having a model output disucssion thread?.....sorry, sounds blunt but I don't know quite how else to put it!

[Gael_Force]

To be frank, the ECM is turning into a dogs breakfast! I don't think we are any clearer on what the weather will do post t96!

 

Indeed, never seen so much intra-day chopping and changing on the ECM as there has been all summer - most unusual for it to have the day 7 hiccups. I wonder why this is, the synoptics are not that unusual.

[ANYWEATHER]

Indeed, never seen so much intra-day chopping and changing on the ECM as there has been all summer - most unusual for it to have the day 7 hiccups. I wonder why this is, the synoptics are not that unusual.

Ive seen it loads of times before, generally means a major pattern change, ! I always look for trends in the model output, and Im seeing more in the way of low pressure than high pressure in the lead up to t+240. As for any detail, forget it!  But it does seem we are entering a phase of some very unsettled weather, but as always in this situation the devil will be in the detail  

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean is rather good, at least for the southern half of the uk with high pressure in control for much of the period spanning mid month, warm and benign conditions but generally more changeable across the north of the BI. In the meantime, enjoy the next few days of very warm and sunny weather, especially the further south/se you are, by friday it will be turning much cooler and wetter as a trough moves in and the weekend also looks relatively cool and unsettled with showers and longer periods of rain but also some sunny spells, notice how the in situ trough fills during the early part of next week with pressure then rising more generally with increasingly fine and pleasantly warm conditions returning for the second half of next week onwards, eventually with an increasing risk of overnight mist and fog, on balance it would be much better across the southern half of britain with n.ireland & scotland having a fine spell for a while next week but then trending more unsettled with time but with occasional fine and warmer intervals, all in all, the 12z gefs mean is very encouraging beyond the unsettled and cooler end of this week and start of next week, much better for more of the uk than the latest met office update described today.

[Panayiotis]

Predicted tracks of the Tropical Storm 97L from GFS, GFS ensembles and other models..

Edited September 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[gottolovethisweather]

Ive seen it loads of times before, generally means a major pattern change, ! I always look for trends in the model output, and Im seeing more in the way of low pressure than high pressure in the lead up to t+240. As for any detail, forget it!  But it does seem we are entering a phase of some very unsettled weather, but as always in this situation the devil will be in the detail  

 

I don't want to especially agree with you, given that I would like another warm and largely dry spell from a personal perspective next week but............................ I reckon you're spot on.

 

For the attention of anybody else, of course, we still need to analyse all the runs (especially concurrent 12z with 12z's etc.) in the run up to the weekend for the finer details. However all BBC forecasts I've seen are seemingly confident on a trough like feature slap bang over the UK for the timeframe t+72 to t+120hrs or so.

 

This translating to largely unsettled conditions and from t+120 and 1 second onwards, who knows. AFAIK the trends thereafter shouldl come from the available ensembles and John Holme's charts, for example.

 

I'm just wishing for some lingering warmth and useable weather next week, please weather gods.

Edited September 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather