Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Shortwavegate has returned again

Lets see what happens here

[Frosty.]

The final week of the meteorological summer of 2013 is shaping up to be a very good one according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the azores/atlantic anticyclone extends a robust ridge northeastwards across the uk during the week ahead and possibly well beyond that, at least for the southern half of the uk with a warm and settled outlook extending into early september, warm and bright days with long sunny spells and light winds with temperatures into at least the low 20's celsius and nearer mid 20's c for favoured areas across the south/se although with the night's slowly drawing in and under clear skies, temperatures could dip into mid to high single digits celsius, at least in rural areas but a bit warmer in towns and cities, as we are now approaching early autumn, the risk of overnight mist and fog increases with time but the sun is still easily strong enough to burn that away during the morning's, we really couldn't ask for a nicer ending to the summer than we are going to get, it's going to be a happy ending to a memorable summer with July being the major highlight.

[NUT]

The final week of the meteorological summer of 2013 is shaping up to be a very good one according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the azores/atlantic anticyclone extends a robust ridge northeastwards across the uk during the week ahead and possibly well beyond that, at least for the southern half of the uk with a warm and settled outlook extending into early september, warm and bright days with long sunny spells and light winds with temperatures into at least the low 20's celsius and nearer mid 20's c for favoured areas across the south/se although with the night's slowly drawing in and under clear skies, temperatures could dip into mid to high single digits celsius, at least in rural areas but a bit warmer in towns and cities, as we are now approaching early autumn, the risk of overnight mist and fog increases with time but the sun is still easily strong enough to burn that away during the morning's, we really couldn't ask for a nicer ending to the summer than we are going to get, it's going to be a happy ending to a memorable summer with July being the major highlight.

I apologise for the off topic post please move if necesseary. I can't disagree with you there when you say about this summer. It's been a lot better than last year and it looks a delightful end. Perfect weather coming up really so it seems

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run looks very settled almost from start to finish, apart from today and then towards the end of FI but then there are hints of another major pressure rise from the south, most of the run looks warm and settled across most if not all of the uk, the sunniest and warmest weather being the further south you are, the southern half of the uk looks best placed for continual fine, dry and warm weather with no unsettled interruptions whatsoever, only across the far north of the uk does there look like being any atlantic weather and even that looks to be few and far between, so, all in all it's looking like a superb end to summer with temps in the low to mid 20's c, mid 20's for the southern half of england & wales, closer to 22 celsius further to the north and a little cooler across scotland from time to time, it's an excellent run.

[Tamara]

The final week of the meteorological summer of 2013 is shaping up to be a very good one according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the azores/atlantic anticyclone extends a robust ridge northeastwards across the uk during the week ahead and possibly well beyond that, at least for the southern half of the uk with a warm and settled outlook extending into early september, warm and bright days with long sunny spells and light winds with temperatures into at least the low 20's celsius and nearer mid 20's c for favoured areas across the south/se although with the night's slowly drawing in and under clear skies, temperatures could dip into mid to high single digits celsius, at least in rural areas but a bit warmer in towns and cities, as we are now approaching early autumn, the risk of overnight mist and fog increases with time but the sun is still easily strong enough to burn that away during the morning's, we really couldn't ask for a nicer ending to the summer than we are going to get, it's going to be a happy ending to a memorable summer with July being the major highlight.

Really good summary there and little more can be added to that really. Including the comments you made about the summer as a whole too

 

Wrt the placing of anomalies and what they might mean for the UK in terms of High pressure placement being too far west to prevent weakness of pressure and troughs slipping towards us, well this has been a constant possibility as a recurring theme since July. And every now and then we have seen splits in the ridging which have interrupted the fine spells in between. This weekend being a case in point. But they have always been very temporary abborations and the coming week once more shows the dominant underlying theme of the Azores ridge returning eastwards to allow the further fine and quiet conditions once more that have been well described already.

 

If we look at the latest EPS members at day 7 then we can see varying degrees of ridging and also a modest degree of varying of amplification of the jet stream in terms of troughing to the north, but other than the expected odd rogue member mischief maker, the signal remains quiet right through to this time and quite possibily/probably beyond too. Any frontal incursions being held to the North and not making too much inroads into the UK.  The positioning of the High means that temperatures will be comfortably warm by day and seasonal in terms of the earlier part of the mornings for late summer, which some folk like me, will very much welcome

 

Edited August 24, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

Another very settled looking GEFS 06z mean, especially for england, wales, ireland and the southern half of scotland where there would be lots of sunshine, light winds and temps in the low 20's celsius and near mid 20's c for southern/se england at times, only the northern half of scotland having more variable conditions due to the ebb and flow of the azores ridging with occasional shortlived unsettled blips but for many of us, it's a super last week of summer for those of us who consider 1st september to be the first day of autumn which I do, and the first week of autumn could also be fine, dry and warm, at least for england & wales but with an increasing risk of overnight mist or fog patches.

Edited August 24, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z control run turns into a september scorcher........ and before then it's as settled and warm as all the other output is showing for the next few weeks.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I think the charts are loosing their marbles. Valid: Fri 06/09 6:00. The previous UK CAPE+Lifted Index chart was showing a 15 Lifted Index and 0 j/kg whereas the current chart was showing a -4 Lifed Index and 400 j/kg, in the Midlands!

[stodge]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Nothing wrong with this chart if you want settled conditions with a solid ridge across the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Very little change if truth be told.

[Summer Sun]

Slight change from UKMO later next week with low affecting parts of the north (nothing to major though) still settled for the bulk of England and Wales

 

[Frosty.]

I love how the azores/atlantic anticyclone continually swats those pesky lows away like an annoying fly, the Gfs 12z is another run which is dominated by high pressure almost from start to finish, the high just has too much for the lows to deal with even though there are some vigorous looking depressions tracking across the far north of the atlantic, they just don't really stand a chance of breaking the settled pattern down and the PFJ shows no sign of being allowed to push south to the uk anytime soon, high pressure really looks like bossing the uk weather pattern for the next few weeks and this starts tomorrow. The week ahead looks warm, dry and bright with a good deal of strong late august sunshine for all areas with light winds and temps in the mid 20's celsius for most of the southern half of the uk and especially across southern/se england, scotland also looks like having a lot of fine and sunny weather with temps into the low 20's celsius. Further ahead, more high pressure, more sunshine and more warmth..PERFECT.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I love how the azores/atlantic anticyclone continually swats those pesky lows away like an annoying fly, the Gfs 12z is another run which is dominated by high pressure almost from start to finish, the high just has too much for the lows to deal with even though there are some vigorous looking depressions tracking across the far north of the atlantic, they just don't really stand a chance of breaking the settled pattern down and the PFJ shows no sign of being allowed to push south to the uk anytime soon, high pressure really looks like bossing the uk weather pattern for the next few weeks and this starts tomorrow. The week ahead looks warm, dry and bright with a good deal of strong late august sunshine for all areas with light winds and temps in the mid 20's celsius for most of the southern half of the uk and especially across southern/se england, scotland also looks like having a lot of fine and sunny weather with temps into the low 20's celsius. Further ahead, more high pressure, more sunshine and more warmth..PERFECT.

Lovely and warm weather! I just hope it sparks off a few thunderstorms with it.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well today was an odd one, the rain was like those debt companies, it also got condensed into one localised washout. Whilst many in the south east recieved nothing, a small area of south east Essex has seen very large rain totals fall this afternoon, quite extrordinary

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-23826691

Everything looks very benign after today on the model front.

Edited August 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Another very settled GEFS 12z mean which reinforces what the warm and settled 12z operational is showing this evening, I really can't see low pressure breaking the warm and benign pattern down until well into september, the atlantic is looking very calm since the PFJ has been shunted much further north along the southern tip of greenland and across to iceland & northern scandinavia, the blocked looking pattern should persist until at least week 2 of september and then it might only break down across northern britain, central and southern areas could be in for several weeks of fine, sunny and warm weather ahead but with an increasing risk of cooler nights with overnight mist or fog patches as the pattern stagnates.

[Summer Sun]

So far so good from ECM

 

 

As per UKMO t144 shows the low north of the UK affecting some places in the far north, UKMO at t144 is on the right to compare the 2

 

Edited August 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Complete change at t168 this evening with cooler strong north westerly winds sweeping down

 

[IanR]

Would this be an Indian summer, or just an extension of regular summer, How for into September is an Indian summer ,or must it be into October to be classed as Indian ?

[Summer Sun]

Would this be an Indian summer, or just an extension of regular summer, How for into September is an Indian summer ,or must it be into October to be classed as Indian ?

 

late September to mid November is when an Indian summer can occur

 

Astronomical summer doesn't end until September 21st

[Summer Sun]

I don't believe ECM one bit with this low pressure is has no support

 

 

Just 12 hours go high pressure was in charge

 

 

The change in 12 hours seems a bit ott in my opinion

 

following that low pressure continues to rise again

 

Edited August 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z control run raises the bar of anticyclonic supremacy to even dizzier heights and also turns into a very warm run later on, there is just a brief moment later next week which the ecm and ukmo also show where a trough tries it's luck and to bring unsettled weather into the far north but is soon sent packing by another build of the azores/atlantic ridge, this run shows anticyclonic intensification taking an iron like grip on the uk with increasing warmth, whichever way you slice it..it's ANTICYCLONIC for the foreseeable future and then some.

Edited August 24, 2013 by Frosty039

[Nick.F]

Indian Summer is a period of warmth after the first frosts. Origin is in parts of North America and usually means in November. But rarely applies to the UK.

 

Nothing to do with September or October.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Complete change at t168 this evening with cooler strong north westerly winds sweeping down

 

Unfortunately there is nothing in the 500mb anomalies to support LP. Nothing on Gfs, Ecm or Naefs.

Pity as it would be nice to get some interesting weather instead of dire settled boredom.

[Frosty.]

Don't worry about the ecm gavin, i'm sure it will turn out to be a rank outlier for that period, the ecm has been a bit poor recently, hope it gets it's act together in time for winter.

[Summer Sun]

Indian summer: What exactly is it?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15127159

 

ECM ends with a deep low Greenland and High pressure over the UK

 

 

As has been said above the low pressure doesn't have any support high pressure is the form horse at the moment keeping things quiet and dry

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Models at T+168 from gfs and ecm  show totally different output! Of course that's la la land but according to the models about 10 days ago before I was on holiday this weekend would see hot and dry conditions, and in reality we are left with some serious flooding in some parts of the south-east of England. Anyway ,some useable weather in the days ahead, but there will be Im afraid "flies in the ointment"! Even though pressure in the coming week will be fairly high, it does not make for heatwave conditions, and for those posting perfect late summer conditions into early September, better take a reality check,