Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Haha, as if the FI has a full blown tropical storm steaming towards the UK!

[UV-RAY]

IMO the much talked about warm/hot spell is beginning to look like a February failed Easterly of yesteryear, I for one never bought into the idea of a prolonged warm spell going off the anomaly charts JH posted, but on the flip side of that I don't see anything other than normal August conditions for the time of year. Lots of average and useable conditions for the next few weeks I would say.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS 18Z op and ens continue to show the output shown in the 12Z earlier. 

Wet Saturday, some thundery showers in the South on Sunday, Monday would be mainly dry and very warm in the south.

Will probably show different in the morning. 

Edited August 20, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

who'd be a forecaster atm?... its frustrating that was expected to be pretty straightforeward pressure rise has deteriorated into a right synoptic mess. at least we have friday to look foreward too (if its sun and heat you like), but im alittle disappointed that such strong, consistent synoptic predictions (from the ops) could go so wrong.

[Frosty.]

At T+39 hours on the Gfs 00z op run, the Azores Anticyclone turns into an Elephant..no wonder our warm spell has been truncated 

[Man With Beard]

ECM's turn to build the high over the top of the shortwave

- whilst the UKMO now takes a bit longer to get there

 

The models still haven't nailed the details for the BH weekend

[johnholmes]

the original fax chart showed the low as a weakish feature off SW Eire then moving into southern counties, the latest has two centre, the main one is now some 600miles or more further north in the Iceland area, with a much shallower feature in the Channel area. A good example of how very marked changes can and do occur just 48-72 hours out. It is not often that the main low is tracked so much different to the original idea though.

 

Looking further ahead to the end of the month, the 3 main anomaly charts are not identical but the general idea of +ve heights in the Atlantic (north of the Azores) with some ridging in that area and a fairly flattish westerly 500mb flow into the uk towards an open rounded trough just east of the UK is their main feature. This may well give a fairly settled spell the further south you are and less so the further north you are.

Edited August 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[Walkinglad2013]

Latest forecasts on Myweather2 for Yorkshire are lots of sunshine and temps in high teens and low 20s for the next 14 days

The skies over Leeds are dark at the moment ...looks like rain on the way this morning

15 degrees today.

21.08.2013.

[draztik]

Latest forecasts on Myweather2 for Yorkshire are lots of sunshine and temps in high teens and low 20s for the next 14 daysThe skies over Leeds are dark at the moment ...looks like rain on the way this morning15 degrees today.21.08.2013.

yes, the best way to sum things up (based on the output this morning) is to describe things as tranquil, for the foreseeable and into fi. I think many will be happy with this, this is perfect weather in my view. Sunny spells, warmish, light winds! Lovely!obviously, the more south you live enhances your chances of these conditions.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is trying to build pressure over the UK from Monday I think sunshine and showers may be in order at the moment

 

 

ECM looks similar to UKMO for Monday, Tuesday looks better on ECM

 

 

ECM ends with a deep area of low pressure over Iceland and high pressure over the UK

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Sat is gonna be wet for most of the day for the majority according to the GFS 06Z.

 

 

 

 

There seems to be some good agreement about a trough being South of England on Sat.

 

Sunday day and Monday day currently look relatively dry though.

 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

Well apart from the rain on Saturday, beyond the weekend looks fine and settled. The GFS op has the Azores high closer to the UK than the ECM or anomaly charts but it's not without the realms of possibility, but more runs needed. 

Safe to say if the 06Z GFS verified it would be a fine and very pleasant end to August.

 

Uppers generally around the 8-10C mark throughout the run.

Edited August 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

Think we can expect more chopping and changing with regard to the detail on Sats trough, but the overall picture of a slowly improving BH weekend already looks fairly well set....at least for another 5 hours!!

[draztik]

If the gfs 6z is to be believed, Ireland is the place to be! Looks glorious, if sun and warmth is your bag!

[Buzzit]

If the gfs 6z is to be believed, Ireland is the place to be! Looks glorious, if sun and warmth is your bag!

 

excellent weather for the football semi final of the All Ireland on Sunday !

Edited August 21, 2013 by Buzzit

[Frosty.]

According to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, there will be another spell of fine late summer warmth developing during the course of next week as the azores/atlantic anticyclone gradually builds in across the south of the uk with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius, less settled and less warm as you go progressively further north but not a write off either, some good weather even for the north at times, the mean trend next week is very encouraging, as it was yesterday and previously. This will it won't it hot spell is back on again but watch out for a scattering of sharp showers even during the next few days, especially across the east and southeast with a risk of thunder, hotting up significantly across the south of the uk, especially by friday, 28-29c 83F likely across the southeast with increasing humidity and eventually a growing risk of more thundery showers, even saturday looks very warm and muggy for the southeast and on the warm side everywhere else, the weekend and early next week indicates shallow trough conditions and looks warm and showery with sunny periods and light winds with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius range but gusty winds around the showers which are likely to be heavy, thundery and slow moving, the weather pattern looks very slack and stagnant, then during next week it becomes drier, sunnier and continuing warm, there is nothing cool on these charts, a bit fresher for a day or two but that's it, most of the time it will be on the warm side. it could be a great end to summer and a warm & settled early autumn with the PFJ remaining well to the north and the azores high gradually strengthening it's influence on our weather over time.

Edited August 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[draztik]

The updated GEM ensemble forecast shows an unsettled Saturday for northern areas

as for the all important BH, it has a fresher feel for all, tho more so in the North.

showers, or rain, looks to be confined more to the east.

Edited August 21, 2013 by draztik

[draztik]

The ensemble prediction system model for the ecm is painting a decidedly unsettled next week for Northern Britain, with spells of rain/showers for the majority of its run. The south escapes with higher pressure and fewer showers.

[mushymanrob]

sooo.. the ops are thinking of the azh building in next week are they?

 

 

well this is promising...

 

 

pretty much total support if im reading the charts correctly! .... ok, but this anomaly chart is only one run, IF it stays the same (ish) for another couple of runs then there might be some cause for optimism...

[draztik]

The ensembles for the main models are lukewarm to the Azores building over the UK. It appears the south may be the area that benefits from a slight ridging. The ops, however, are more encouraging for HP to build more substantially across the UK.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z operational run is very pleasing on the eye, low pressure hardly gets a look in until the depths of FI and even that is a glancing blow, the azores/atlanic anticyclone dominate for most of the run, just this weekend the pressure is a bit lower with some heavy showers scattered around but plenty of sunshine too with most of the showers eventually becoming concentrated further north and west after initially being focused on the south & east, and very respectable temperatures throughout which briefly become hot in the south/se but always remain at or above average in the low to mid 20's celsius. Our building anticyclone slowly migrates to the northeast, eventually into scandinavia and this weekend we will have a slack shallow trough developing across the south but then by sunday things are already improving as our anticyclone which slowly migrated into scandinavia links up with the azores/atlantic high and they merge together for a while with the weather across most of the uk becoming fine and dry again after a warm and rather humid showery interlude, eventually the high's drift apart again but the azores high gains strength and builds northeastwards across the uk, always bringing the best weather to the southern half of the uk but the north does quite well out of it as well, late august continues settled and warm with long sunny spells and light winds, only the far north of the uk becomes exposed to the atlantic as the isobars tighten up between low pressure further north and the anticyclone over the uk but it really is an excellent run overall with a lot of fine, sunny and warm weather for most areas continuing into early september.

Edited August 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

The 06z ensembles show temperatures holding up pretty good for the next few weeks rainfall looks like remaining low as well

 

 

*my 10,000th post*

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Rain for Sat looks even more persistant and heavy on the GFS 12Z compared to 6Z

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hmmmmm I would even go as far to say that Sunday doesn't look that great either down South on the 12Z

Edited August 21, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO is better by T72 than this morning, dispatching the low like the GFS, unfortunately Saturday looks pretty wet but quite warm

 

 

Good agreement with the GFS

Few showers in the south on Sunday. 

Edited August 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

UKMO is better by T72 than this morning, dispatching the low like the GFS, unfortunately Saturday looks pretty wet but quite warm

 

 

Good agreement with the GFS

Few showers in the south on Sunday. 

 

 

Warm rain. Lovely.