Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Summer Sun]

If GFS 12z is correct we can say hello and welcome back another lengthy settled and increasingly warm spell of weather from mid next week

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

 

[mushymanrob]

MetO becoming more GEM like this evening...

pressure not building in as quickly, certainly when compared with gfs at same timeframe.

 

doesnt matter, the point is that support is growing for a high pressure dominated spell which should become warm or even hot. itll certainly feel very nice, even if we dont get 30c+ temps (which is unlikely but not impossible).

 

id sooner wait a few days for a decent lengthy spell to evolve, rather then a quick build and collapse, so it might be delayed abit, but it matters not.

[draztik]

Yep, GFS sure has had a spell of warm outlier, like your post last night which contradicts everything you just said:rofl:  

GFS fi like the high resolution part is fantastic. Again caution must be used due to that shortwave

pretty sure you could have used my other quote, when i mentioned the op has little support from the ensembles. I was commenting on that particular run, which showed much cooler conditions.

the heatwave conditions still have little support, and until the ensembles come on board it is just a chart showing heat! The gfs ensembles have not supported the op for about 8 runs now! Pretty sure ill be back here in a couple of hours to see once again, an op without support!

[draztik]

doesnt matter, the point is that support is growing for a high pressure dominated spell which should become warm or even hot. itll certainly feel very nice, even if we dont get 30c+ temps (which is unlikely but not impossible).id sooner wait a few days for a decent lengthy spell to evolve, rather then a quick build and collapse, so it might be delayed abit, but it matters not.

pretty certain hp will build into the south! That's not in dispute. But if the MetO moves towards the GEM 0z output, it would matter quite a bit! That model shows much more of a NW flow, with fronts and lower pressure affecting the North! Meaning a UK wide settled spell is unlikely. So im guessing it would matter to people in Scotland and NI! Edited August 14, 2013 by draztik

[Captain Shortwave]

pretty certain hp will build into the south! That's not in dispute. But if the MetO moves towards the GEM 0z output, it would matter quite a bit! That model shows much more of a NW flow, with fronts and lower pressure affecting the North! Meaning a UK wide settled spell is unlikely. So in guessing it would matter to people in Scotland and NI!

Well the GEM is moving to the other models now

 

Oh and the GEM has a finger of hot uppers aimed straight at the south west

I could be really mean now, the most unsettled model for the past 2 days then produces the hottest run of them all

 

 

Slack southerly flow, that would pack some serious heat for central and eastern areas. 

Edited August 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

pretty sure you could have used my other quote, when i mentioned the op has little support from the ensembles. I was commenting on that particular run, which showed much cooler conditions.the heatwave conditions still have little support, and until the ensembles come on board it is just a chart showing heat! The gfs ensembles have not supported the op for about 8 runs now! Pretty sure ill be back here in a couple of hours to see once again, an op without support!

 

sir.... who is on about a heatwave? the upcoming spell isnt expected to be a heatwave, but a pleasant, dry, warm/very warm spell of largely sunny/bright weather with temps into the mid 20's for most as run after run is expecting at some point the 10c upper isotherm over much of the country. IF the 15c upper crosses us then it will be 'hot'.

[mushymanrob]

pretty certain hp will build into the south! That's not in dispute. But if the MetO moves towards the GEM 0z output, it would matter quite a bit! That model shows much more of a NW flow, with fronts and lower pressure affecting the North! Meaning a UK wide settled spell is unlikely. So im guessing it would matter to people in Scotland and NI!

 

one model showing a nw flow? what about all the others that dont?.. what about the anomaly charts that dont show a nw flow?

 

to place too much emphisis on one run in order to dispute what the overwhelming data is currently suggesting is misleading

[Frosty.]

WOW that's a FANTASTIC Gfs 12z run...once we get rid of that pesky weekend low it's high pressure all the way and over a period of time the main core of the anticyclone slowly drifts to the east and forms a block so the atlantic cannot break through in FI, it's a barrier and eventually the atlantic low throws in the towel and spins away north as a filling feature with atlantic high pressure building northeast to reinforce our anticyclonic pattern, so, next week soon becomes dry, sunny and warmer as high pressure builds in from the azores, the far northwest has a bit of bother with a small disturbance drifting towards northwest scotland but apart from that little annoying feature, it's the warmth we need to focus on, temperatures going up through the gears next week, into the mid to high 20's celsius and then it becomes hot and more humid as we import continental heat to bolster our own homegrown developing late summer heatwave, with the increasing heat and humidity, the risk of storms would also increase but probably isolated and with a few drifting up from the near continent but it's the best gfs run so far today, and they have all been very good so far.

Edited August 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS mean is also an improvement, heights nudged a little further north

 

As a consequence the mean uppers reach 14C for places such as Plymouth

Edited August 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

sir.... who is on about a heatwave? the upcoming spell isnt expected to be a heatwave, but a pleasant, dry, warm/very warm spell of largely sunny/bright weather with temps into the mid 20's for most as run after run is expecting at some point the 10c upper isotherm over much of the country. IF the 15c upper crosses us then it will be 'hot'.

spot on rob, there is heatwave potential though with an anticyclone centred to the east enabling hot & sultry continental air to drift up into the uk, otherwise it would be very warm and anticyclonic with tons of sunshine.

[Tamara]

pretty certain hp will build into the south! That's not in dispute. But if the MetO moves towards the GEM 0z output, it would matter quite a bit! That model shows much more of a NW flow, with fronts and lower pressure affecting the North! Meaning a UK wide settled spell is unlikely. So im guessing it would matter to people in Scotland and NI!

I think you should bear in mind that with the UKMO being a short to medium time frame model it only takes us out to next Tuesday which is the infancy of the build of high pressure. With that in mind then i think for those of us looking forward to a late summer spell of weather, then the model looks fine to me and very much in line with the progression as suggested by the other models as far as I am concerned. I would agree with you in that I am all for caution when it is warranted, but not so much when one starts seeing things that are not there

 

You are correct to state that Northern Britain is going to have to be patient for a few days longer at least than those in the south, but the consistency of the models to progress this anticyclonic pattern is becoming more and more compelling. I think that the confidence being expressed on these pages is wholly justified and would expect the ECM to further endorse that in the next hour

 

A fair day in the south by Monday as the ridge moves in, and showers further north fewer and further between as well I would think. It looks as though the shortwave following on has been downplayed by Tuesday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2013 by Tamara Road

[MP-R]

Now where we these charts at the start of August, instead of all this precious time being wasted!

 

Looks like the south of the UK will be benefiting from this arriving high as early as Monday, the GFS probably showing its exertion most out of all the models. Beyond that it looks pretty persistent so perhaps an anticyclonic rest of August. Hopefully with time the high will move further east and bring some thundery potential to our shores.

[The Northern Ramper]

Well the GEM is moving to the other models now

 

Oh and the GEM has a finger of hot uppers aimed straight at the south west

I could be really mean now, the most unsettled model for the past 2 days then produces the hottest run of them all

 

 

Slack southerly flow, that would pack some serious heat for central and eastern areas.

Blimey, that Gem is hot!

[Captain Shortwave]

That will do nicely

Next chart even better

Just need something to drag the heat northwards from France, any trough developing near Portugal would be very handy.

Edited August 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tamara]

That will do nicely

 

Looks as though the ECM is going to pull those warmer uppers northwards in the next few frames as it sets the High up just to our east *Edit we have pretty much said the same thing!

 

 

.And indeed it starts to do so

 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2013 by Tamara Road

[The Northern Ramper]

Are the models now firming up on a hot spell?

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm makes nothing of that shortwave compared to gfs at T+144 

[Frosty.]

Perturbation 10 becomes very hot for a while

 

The Gefs 12z mean brings in the anticyclone as before, temperatures rising every day next week so the south of the uk becoming very warm from midweek with the warmth spreading north to all areas along with the sunnier skies, a fantastic spell of very summery weather next week looks very likely now, there is still questions that need answers, like for example, where will the high become centred, the gefs 12z control run has it to the west, P 10 has it to the east, I want to see the high become centred right over the top of the uk and then slowly adjusting further east enabling the continental hot and sultry air to waft our way and maybe break a few more records before the curtain comes down on the glorious summer of 2013.

[Methuselah]

To those whom it may concern: cut out the personal slights; they won't alter the weather!

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM sets up heights just to our east/north east at day 7, it then proceeds to just sit there, each day getting warmer and warmer under south/south easterly winds.

We end on this

 

Would be breaking back into the 30s with that chart.

Simply superb run there, if the uppers were a little higher it would be the run of the summer I think.

[Milhouse]

Are the models now firming up on a hot spell?

 

Eventually i see no reason why we cant eventually see a period of hot weather developing. The ECM in FI shows very warm air pushing out of France in our direction. However initially it looks like the ECM has troublesome front parked over southern England preventing the very warm air from affecting the UK sooner. Still very pleasant mind you.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Are the models now firming up on a hot spell?

What the models are showing are a fine and settled spell next week extending north from sunday/Monday onwards. So ,devil in the detail, nothing screaming or even shouting heatwave  but far too early for any forecast.,but the signs are at least for some good weather  

[Joe8987]

Just registered here,

Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?

Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

[Milhouse]

Just registered here,Are we looking at a return to heat wave conditions for 14+ days again then?Can't understand people that work liking the hot weather, it's not great to work in.

 

No at the moment we are not looking at a heatwave, just some settled and warm/very warm weather which may lead to a hot couple of days if winds turn southerly.

 

And yes i work in an unairconditioned office which was like a furnace during the July hot spell but i still love the heat.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is gob smackingly awesome, it reminds me so much of how the epic July heatwave evolved, very striking similarities here, there is very good agreement now between the models for a rapid improvement in our weather between monday and tuesday, by tuesday, most of the uk looks warm and settled and it gets even better from there, those FI charts are perfection as far as i'm concerned, we could be in for another scorcher folks.