Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Frosty.]

true, but i was quoting someone else, me, i think we might get a hotspell, how long it lasts and how hot, if at all, will make the difference between hot spell and heatwave. i too will be happy with a few days of 25c, anything hotter will be a bonus.i do think theres going to be a pressure rise and plume as depicted but it might not hit us, it just might get shunted to our east.

Nice to see you being positive rob, the latest met office update is very encouraging towards the end of the 6-15 day period with signs that the weather will become settled and warmer, at least across the south, looking even further ahead, it's a very good outlook for the south & east with prolonged spells of fine and warm weather with high pressure dominating, this is exactly what the latest ecm & gefs means are showing for later this month. As for the week ahead, becoming warmer and more humid towards the southeast, locally very warm for southeast england later in the week and for a wider area of southern uk, by midweek it looks drier and sunnier for a few days but the north and west not settling down for a while yet.

[Captain Shortwave]

Holy Moly GEM, might avoid a holiday in Scotland if this verifies 

Edited August 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Nice to see you being positive rob, the latest met office update is very encouraging towards the end of the 6-15 day period with signs that the weather will become settled and warmer, at least across the south, looking even further ahead, it's a very good outlook for the south & east with prolonged spells of fine and warm weather with high pressure dominating, this is exactly what the latest ecm & gefs means are showing for later this month. As for the week ahead, becoming warmer and more humid towards the southeast, locally very warm for southeast england later in the week and for a wider area of southern uk, by midweek it looks drier and sunnier for a few days but the north and west not settling down for a while yet.

i think theres something to be positive about. got a good feeling and there is growing support for something settled.gotta say though the 12z gfs has a great evolution but wouldnt be overly hot. we dont get the high uppers for a while. but IF its cloudless the sun will be strong and pleasant.

[The Northern Ramper]

Holy Moly GEM, might avoid a holiday in Scotland if this verifies 

But what follows it?

[Captain Shortwave]

But what follows it?

High pressure builds from the south west when the low clears.

Always nice to keep tabs when a model throws a nasty low like that. Would certainly remove the hats from the fishermen sitting by the sea in Oban

GFS ens rather disagrees with the strength and track of the low next weekend, instead maintaining a more northerly track

Some more specifics about where the high might settle. GFS going for just to our East over Holland and Germany which would allow some very warm South/South westerly winds

High pressure looks like it will be in total command from the 20th/21st onwards 

Edited August 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

true, but i was quoting someone else, me, i think we might get a hotspell, how long it lasts and how hot, if at all, will make the difference between hot spell and heatwave. i too will be happy with a few days of 25c, anything hotter will be a bonus.i do think theres going to be a pressure rise and plume as depicted but it might not hit us, it just might get shunted to our east.

id say shunted east and south.

still very knife edge.

[J10]

Frodty, I personally could do with those rainfall charts for Thursday and Saturday that you posted, NOT verifying -- semi-washout in SW risked there unless matters improve ...

 

Will catch up properly tomorrow.

 

Actual rainfall totals are in single figures to T+144, and most of any precipitation next Satuday. So nothing that wet on the horizon accoring to GFS, damp is another matter.

Edited August 11, 2013 by J10

[Milhouse]

Temperatures rising next week as a southwesterly develops pulling in warmer air off the Atlantic. Tuesday onwards look very reasonable indeed. Monday a little chilly though.

 

[draztik]

the weekend will feel as though we have been transported back to last summer, if the ecm verifies.

[ANYWEATHER]

Big difference .between the ecm and gfs at t+168, and of course with the timeframe I should expect this is typical! 

[Tamara]

High pressure builds from the south west when the low clears.

Always nice to keep tabs when a model throws a nasty low like that. Would certainly remove the hats from the fishermen sitting by the sea in Oban

GFS ens rather disagrees with the strength and track of the low next weekend, instead maintaining a more northerly track

Some more specifics about where the high might settle. GFS going for just to our East over Holland and Germany which would allow some very warm South/South westerly winds

High pressure looks like it will be in total command from the 20th/21st onwards 

Yes, the GFS ensembles nicely correspond with the ECM ensembles from this morning. The latest ECM operational looks out of kilter with both of those for the low, so unless there is a change in the updated ECM ensembles this evening then I think it can be put to one side. In these situations the operational models can be unreliable and jump around exactly as we are seeing at the moment. Best to especially stick with the ensemble means here I think

Edited August 11, 2013 by Tamara Road

[J10]

Temperatures rising next week as a southwesterly develops pulling in warmer air off the Atlantic. Tuesday onwards look very reasonable indeed. Monday a little chilly though.

 

Definite downward trend to the weather as we move into mid next week.

the weekend will feel as though we have been transported back to last summer, if the ecm verifies.

Not really as if this was last summer, the Low Pressure would be further south (as per last Sunday/Monday)

[The Northern Ramper]

Yes, the GFS ensembles nicely correspond with the ECM ensembles from this morning. The latest ECM operational looks out of kilter with both of those for the low, so unless there is a change in the updated ECM ensembles this evening then I think it can be put to one side. In these situations the operational models can be unreliable and jump around exactly as we are seeing at the moment. Best to especially stick with the ensemble means here I think

Excellent post

One thing that all the models show is by the 20th high pressure in charge.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure in coming for the 20th

 

[Tamara]

One thing that all the models show is by the 20th high pressure in charge.

Yes exactly. Pending the ECM ensembles and any changes with the track of this unpredictable low, then the overall prognosis is unchanged anyway both before and after it. Its just a case of how much influence the low next weekend extends over the UK

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with high pressure in charge

 

Very good agreement on another settled spell starting somewhere around the 20th at the moment

 

Edited August 11, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

ECM ends with high pressure in charge

 

Very good agreement on another settled spell starting somewhere around the 20th at the moment

 

Perhaps earlier! Im on holiday then!!!   

[draztik]

Pretty sure hp is incoming. But thankfully not the heat!

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes exactly. Pending the ECM ensembles and any changes with the track of this unpredictable low, then the overall prognosis is unchanged anyway both before and after it. Its just a case of how much influence the low next weekend extends over the UK

I get the feeling the ECM op is again an unsettled outlier, for about the 157th time this summer 

[Timmytour]

One thing that all the models show is by the 20th high pressure in charge.

That's true for the timebeing, but I think the high pressure has struggled to reassert itself since its heyday in July, and i can't help thinking that this pattern will be maintained, with the models hinting but reality not quite delivering.I think the latest ECM op will prove to be a trendsetter and perhaps keep all but perhaps the most southeastern parts away from the glorious bank holiday weather we want. Not that it will be particularly bad, especially the more south you are, but nothing in the "special" category.  But I'd stress that's me thinking where the models first over the next few days and then reality will take us, which is not where there are at this moment in time 

[The Northern Ramper]

That's true for the timebeing, but I think the high pressure has struggled to reassert itself since its heyday in July, and i can't help thinking that this pattern will be maintained, with the models hinting but reality not quite delivering.I think the latest ECM op will prove to be a trendsetter and perhaps keep all but perhaps the most southeastern parts away from the glorious bank holiday weather we want. Not that it will be particularly bad, especially the more south you are, but nothing in the "special" category.  But I'd stress that's me thinking where the models first over the next few days and then reality will take us, which is not where there are at this moment in time

I would agree if the high pressure was put back each day however it has been steadfast on the 20/21 on all the models available for days.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z CONTROL run turns into anticyclonic heaven, we even get high pressure to the east with hot continental air drifting up from  france, really excellent charts for late august which could carry on well into september, the mid and longer range is looking settled and very warm and before then the southeast will have a spell of warm and fine weather later in the week ahead.

Edited August 11, 2013 by Frosty039

[draztik]

Im sure john could better articulate the anomaly charts, but the HP the models are showing seems to now have anomaly support!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[legritter]

Evening all ,a bit of a mixed week going by current charts and gradually warming up .some good signs of pressure rising after low pressure later this week ,but of course at this range if the low comes further south it could be an early autumn feel for a few days but with pressure rising and setting up in the right place we could get some Good summer warmth .im pretty sure this summer as not yet finished dishing up warm days and data at present seems to be hinting at this ,thanks for posters who collect and publish this info on our NET Weather forum , .

[Frosty.]

And if you thought the control run was good, check out the GEFS 12z mean, it's even better. I really think we are in for a fantastic spell of settled and very warm/hot weather for the last 10 days of August and lasting well into the first half of september.