Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Jimmyh]

fernandez i think the summers have very little to do with the winters. I think purely for an entertainment value it will be a long cold one with snow on the ground from Boxing day till my birthday. March time and then a hot summer

[legritter]

yeah in about another 220 ish runs of ECM and 450 ish runs of GFS etc we will have an idea of coming winter ,but back on topic ,and calmish weather with a possible temp spike possibly occuring in further outlook is in my opinion on the cards looking at modells .probably central and southern parts catching any high pressure ,but as is usual past 10 days is always a hard one to call ,i missed the fireworks as some will know as my best storm was spent in hospital last week and before ,i didnt get a window bed but everything else was spot on ,thanks for regards sent from certain posters ,much appreciated  .

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS still wants to build heights during the middle of next week

So does the UKMO

[MR EXTREMES]

id be on the fence looking at the models the last few days there is strong support for heights to be fairly high into southern regions,nothern areas not so good.

but id be careful I think theres also a chance that things could well be knife edge theres certainly indications that the alantic is trying to power up although not a huge amount but enough I feel to keep things more average I think atleast another couple of weeks of rather static weather patterns but no heatwave to finish summer.

 

winter omg please lets not jinx jackfrost but I go with colder winter than last early on.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is moving in the right direction now with high pressure slowly but surely moving in next week from the south

 

[SnowBallz]

Is it winter yet?

 

Really looking forward to being back on the model thread in a few months time - last winter was exceptional and I think we all learned a great deal.  As advised last winter, I started work at the MetO early last month, so I shall post what am able to get away with   Working in research fields, but I've already had a play around with some of the operational toys.

 

Anyway, see you lot soon and I hope you're all well.

 

Best,

 

SB x

[Milhouse]

UKMO is moving in the right direction now with high pressure slowly but surely moving in next week from the south

 

 

Definitely is moving in the right direction and mirrors the GFS in forecasting some progressively warmer weather as we go through next week.

[Frosty.]

I would BANK the Gfs 12z, it sums up what the met office are currently expecting for just beyond mid month onwards and fully backs up the excellent Gefs 06z mean, becoming more and more anticyclonic and warmer across the southern half of the uk, this run is even better than that and shows continental heat spreading up into the south of the uk and high pressure settles the weather down across the whole of the uk, it would be a perfect finale to summer and most crucially, it has growing support.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[MR EXTREMES]

Definitely is moving in the right direction and mirrors the GFS in forecasting some progressively warmer weather as we go through next week.

 

im inclined to say that these charts from the ukmo and gfs are very knife edge it wont take much of a shift to keep the whole of the uk in a more alantic driven weather type,i think this could well progress away slowly from the output being shown.

[Captain Shortwave]

The set up looks good to be honest for at least a brief spell of warm, settled weather over a large part of the UK. Low pressure looks likely to be positioned over Greenland which would naturally allow heights to rise from the south before the next low develops on the southern flank of the upper trough which would set up a mixed weekend.

 

[draztik]

Until the ECM starts to move towards this increase in heights, doubts remain. Having said that, even the ecm shows a decent middle of the week, with Friday being the start of its pullback. Will be interesting to see where it takes us, in under 30 minutes or so.

[Tim Bland]

The recent heat waves showing in FI on GFS have always been warm outlier on the ensembles. Until the ensembles start to agree and the ECM comes onboard I'll leave the padling pool and factor 30 in the garage.

[The Northern Ramper]

The recent heat waves showing in FI on GFS have always been warm outlier on the ensembles. Until the ensembles start to agree and the ECM comes onboard I'll leave the padling pool and factor 30 in the garage.

You keep your sun cream in the garage?Odd

[MR EXTREMES]

watch this space the ecm at t72 and look at the system coming across the north alantic.

I think any settled weather dry warm clear blue sky will depend on depth and track of this feature.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

watch this space the ecm at t72 and look at the system coming across the north alantic.

I think any settled weather dry warm clear blue sky will depend on depth and track of this feature.

 

well looking good t96 low heights in the north alantic is not going to have a big effect here infact the ecm could well be heading towards a nice settled spell.

but might not last long.

[Captain Shortwave]

That will do nicely

The latter half of next week looks very usable. Nothing special but all models want to push a ridge across the UK Wednesday. Pretty good agreement between the big 3 on this.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Kentspur]

I really hope this is true!:-) my cousin is coming over from Australia 28th August and she's the only one of the family not to experience warm dry weather here! Every time she's here it normally buckets down wet and windy lol

There is additional good news, following those Gefs 06z charts I posted on the previous page, the latest met office update (6-15 days) supports what the 6z mean is showing with signs of warmer and more settled weather taking over for at least the southern half of the uk not far beyond mid month onwards, this is exactly what the GEFS 06z mean is showing for the last 10 days or so of August, the further outlook is also sounding good with a lot of fine and warm weather through the end of the month into early september although there is no strong signal to support this, it does appear to be more likely than anything unsettled..fingers crossed for a settled and warm spell soon.

[Methuselah]

That will do nicely

The latter half of next week looks very usable. Nothing special but all models want to push a ridge across the UK Wednesday. Pretty good agreement between the big 3 on this.

Looks pretty good CS...and It's also in agreement with the MetO outlook...

[Milhouse]

Cool northwesterlies to begin next week but by Wednesday temperatures should be back up to average. There doesnt look to be a low knocing in the door so the fine weather should last until the end of the week. But we shall see as the ECM rolls out.

[049balt]

That will do nicely

The latter half of next week looks very usable. Nothing special but all models want to push a ridge across the UK Wednesday. Pretty good agreement between the big 3 on this.

That High over northern Europe looks very interesting indeed.

[Man With Beard]

GFS yet again raises pressure at the end of its run, both op and ensembles - done this several times now

I'm starting to take notice. Wouldn't be the first time a consistent trend from GFS at this range turns out right. 

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 12z mean turns into a peach of a run, it's even better than the 6z mean, if the mean keeps trending in this direction it's going to be a fantastic end to a great summer, the icing on the cake, even during next week we get a taste of things to come with a warmer and more anticyclonic second half to next week across the southern half of the uk, then there is a slight dip before high pressure begins to push further and further north and the weather even settles down in the north as the PFJ is forced way north to iceland/greenland and beyond. This pattern has support, most crucially with the met office on board, and I understand mogreps is showing a much more settled pattern through late august and early september, fingers crossed for a golden end to the summer of 2013.

[draztik]

ECM showing a north/south split as next week progresses, but as the weekend approaches its downhill for just about everyone

Sundays chart!

[Man With Beard]

Tues-Thurs now looking good on all main models (away from North and West, who may join in with some small tweaks) 

 

 

ECM makes a shift towards the other models tonight, just a passing front next Friday rather than an Atlantic invasion

[Frosty.]

I really hope this is true!:-) my cousin is coming over from Australia 28th August and she's the only one of the family not to experience warm dry weather here! Every time she's here it normally buckets down wet and windy lol 

So do I, it has growing support anyway, the mean is trending in the right direction for a cracking last 10 days of summer.

Edited August 9, 2013 by Frosty039