Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[draztik]

The models are showing some average summer weather particularly in the south which is a bonus compared to previous summers.

August 2012 in the SE was pleasant and rather warm.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/month/328328?monyr=8/01/2012

Edited August 4, 2013 by draztik

[shedhead]

Once again all the main models point towards pretty bog standard conditions through until mid August, with no extremes likely in either direction, so those hoping for a heatwave or a flat, raging Jet look set to remain disappointed. IF this status quo were to continue many parts of the UK should end up with a better month than Aug 2012,  but as Draztik has pointed out the SE did quite well this time last year, so here things could be quite similar.

[Mark Parsons]

August 2012 in the SE was pleasant and rather warm.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/month/328328?monyr=8/01/2012

I am talking about more widespread summer weather rather than a regional one................. 

Edited August 4, 2013 by Mark Parsons

[mushymanrob]

I think the above just about sums up what Frosty is saying but with a more negative twist rather than a positive one, as ever it is down to interpretation as to what you can expect from the models. The models are showing some average summer weather particularly in the south which is a bonus compared to previous summers.

indeed, i guess im a glass half empty person whilst frosty is a glass half full. suppose im greedy for more heat and am not content with average, unless its sunnier and drier, tbh its not looking like that.

[Frosty.]

I am talking about more widespread summer weather rather than a regional one................. 

Spot on Mark, it's been a much better summer over a much wider area compared to last summer when only the southeast corner had a passable summer at times. And more good weather on the way later in the week.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[draztik]

I am talking about more widespread summer weather rather than a regional one.................

you were specific in mentioning the south, hence my post.also, the models at this point don't show the north/ NW joining in, in any extended warmth.

[William of Walworth]

I don't really get this 'bog standard summer' idea for the next week or ten days. In fact I'm with Frosty on the glass half full interpretation, maybe even a bit more than half full, for pleasant summer weather preferrers towards the S. Not sure how representative the GFS 06z is for general trends, more runs required etc, but IF the Azores High influence really does get as strong as that run might suggest, then that to me that represents somethig far morte positive than bog standard. Admittedly not anywhere near to the same extent for those further North, but at least it's not just the furthest SE corner that's could join in with the sunshine.

 

Compare it to last summer, or to 2007, when sun cravers would have killed for runs of that type.

[William of Walworth]

you were specific in mentioning the south, hence my post.also, the models at this point don't show the north/ NW joining in, in any extended warmth.

 

 

But you're in Bristol, which could share some very acceptable conditions. I take your point  that the North remains likely to be more unsettled, but still, recent runs do suggest a non-washout for quite a wide area over the next week to ten days, After Monday's done with obviously ... then sunshine and showers for mid week, then likely to be drying and warming up over quite a large area of the S towards the weekend.

Edited August 4, 2013 by William of Walworth

[J10]

you were specific in mentioning the south, hence my post.

also, the models at this point don't show the north/ NW joining in, in any extended warmth.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2012/august/regional-values

 

If you look at the overall weather tha month, it wasn't the best, althoughsome parts of the SE had warm sunny weather.

 

Would much prefer the weather pattern of this May/June from a local perspective. and ongoing charts are not far from this IMO.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/may/regional-values

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/june/regional-values

[mushymanrob]

I don't really get this 'bog standard summer' idea for the next week or ten days. In fact I'm with Frosty on the glass half full interpretation, maybe even a bit more than half full, for pleasant summer weather preferrers towards the S. Not sure how representative the GFS 06z is for general trends, more runs required etc, but IF the Azores High influence really does get as strong as that run might suggest, then that to me that represents somethig far morte positive than bog standard. Admittedly not anywhere near to the same extent for those further North, but at least it's not just the furthest SE corner that's could join in with the sunshine. Compare it to last summer, or to 2007, when sun cravers would have killed for runs of that type.

nowt wrong with a bog standard summer, maybe i should have said average which indeed is pleasant and welcome. but it is disappointing if its more heat your wanting. away from the southeast which most of the country is, its unlikely to see more prolonged heat with temps in the upper 20's . now some will prefer low- mid 20's, fair enough. but as things stand with an expected strong jet aimed at the uk itll be largely unsettled with periods of rain , sometimes muggy with troublesome cloud especially for the west and north.

[mushymanrob]

must add... the comments made related to the gfs 00z , the ecm 00z and the current anomaly charts. the gfs 06z is a better run but atm is alone.

lets hope its onto something.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean becomes pretty good for the southern third of the uk with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging across the south towards the end of the week ahead and remains there until the following week, it would bring a change to dry weather with a good deal of sunshine and temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius, very pleasant indeed. Further to the north the ens mean shows a progressively more changeable broadly westerly pattern from the atlantic with a mix of rain alternating with sunshine and showers and temperatures nearer the seasonal average but with occasional fine and pleasantly warmer spells too, all in all, not bad at all and any FI changes to cooler and more unsettled have been considerably toned down with a rather flatter pattern indicated, the PFJ staying further north.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

I really like the Gfs 06z, lots of high pressure across the southern half of the uk and occasionally further north and south but the high pressure influence seems to be gathering momentum with the PFJ tending to remain further to the northwest and largely unable to do much damage, a very settled end to the week ahead across central and southern areas with long sunny periods and light winds with temperatures of 23-25c 73-77f and occasionally touching the low 80's F especially across the southeastern half of england. For northern britain it looks more hit and miss with a changeable regime but some good weather from time to time, as for the closer future, a lot of heavy rain spreading northeastwards tonight and tomorrow but notice how the gfs temps tomorrow look better than previously, this is due to the core of torrential rain being much further to the northeast and the rain slowly clearing from further south, perhaps the worst of the rain for most of england will occur through tonight and tomorrow will be a slowly improving story. Tuesday and midweek we have a showery spell with sunny starts giving way to heavy thundery showers and also a risk midweek of thunderstorms clipping the southeast from the continent, that's one to watch possibly, but some areas missing most of any midweek showers whilst others have a risk of local flash flooding, then later in the week, pressure rises and the showers risk is extinguished with summery weather returning, even during the showery middle of the week, temperatures will be on the warm side, low to mid 20's celsius, high teens to low 20's c for n.ireland & scotland. During FI (LOW RES) pressure continues on the high side for most of the time across the southern half of the uk (1020mb or higher) with just a brief cooler unsettled blip later in FI ....BANK 

Edited August 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

hi frosty

I do like your presentation and obviously you are perfectly entitled to assess the run as you feel appropriate. All the charts are there for any viewer to see.

A plea if I may?

Can you copy exactly the same date/time charts for all 3 sets of charts you post please? At the moment the first synoptic does not match the first temperature maximum or the rainfall chart? Hope you see what I mean and so on?

 

John

[Frosty.]

hi frosty

I do like your presentation and obviously you are perfectly entitled to assess the run as you feel appropriate. All the charts are there for any viewer to see.

A plea if I may?

Can you copy exactly the same date/time charts for all 3 sets of charts you post please? At the moment the first synoptic does not match the first temperature maximum or the rainfall chart? Hope you see what I mean and so on?

 

John

Thanks John, yes I see what you mean, I will exactly match them.

[johnholmes]

Thanks John, yes I see what you mean, I will exactly match them.

many thanks, I am sure that will help folk reading your posts.

[wimbledonweather88]

Hey, my first post on here....

 

I'm confused though.....how come the met office are going with this.....

 

A changeable period, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, and also the risk of more persistent rain at times. Through the coming week, the most frequent showers are likely in the north, whilst drier and sunnier weather is more likely in the south and also east of high ground. This will lead to temperatures remaining around average in the northwest, but warm at times in the southeast. By the weekend, it will then turn more unsettled with a trend to westerly or northwesterly winds. These could become strong at times, particularly in the northwest, and will bring showers or longer outbreaks of rain here. Whilst the south and east will again see the brightest weather, and fewest showers, these brisk winds will lead to a noticeably fresher feel.

Updated: 1127 on Sun 4 Aug 2013

 

while  posts saying we are going to get a good spell of summer weather??

 

Cheers.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hey, my first post on here....

 

I'm confused though.....how come the met office are going with this.....

 

A changeable period, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, and also the risk of more persistent rain at times. Through the coming week, the most frequent showers are likely in the north, whilst drier and sunnier weather is more likely in the south and also east of high ground. This will lead to temperatures remaining around average in the northwest, but warm at times in the southeast. By the weekend, it will then turn more unsettled with a trend to westerly or northwesterly winds. These could become strong at times, particularly in the northwest, and will bring showers or longer outbreaks of rain here. Whilst the south and east will again see the brightest weather, and fewest showers, these brisk winds will lead to a noticeably fresher feel.

Updated: 1127 on Sun 4 Aug 2013

 

while  posts saying we are going to get a good spell of summer weather??

 

Cheers.

Firstly a Big warm welcome to you from all at Netweather. To be honest, I Think the met-office summery just about sums it up correctly. The models show changeable to unsettled conditions at times with brief spells of summer like conditions in the south of the Uk at times. So pretty much a standard summer outlook with no major washout conditions, but equally no heatwaves either. Anyway enjoy Netweather and be prepared for some rollercoaster rides from time to time on this forum!  

[mushymanrob]

plus in summer people are looking for sun and heat, winter its cold and snowy, so there is a little bias towards the flavour of the season. unfortunately the met o are more likely to be right:-(

[UV-RAY]

plus in summer people are looking for sun and heat, winter its cold and snowy, so there is a little bias towards the flavour of the season. unfortunately the met o are more likely to be right:-(

Lol, but that doesn't stop most of us posting charts showing the opposite of how the pro's see it if it suites our agendas. :-)

[harryc]

Lol, but that doesn't stop most of us posting charts showing the opposite of how the pro's see it if it suites our agendas. :-)

Yup the same pro's who predicted a mostly cloudy day here with the odd shower, it's been non stop rain all day.

[Frosty.]

Yup the same pro's who predicted a mostly cloudy day here with the odd shower, it's been non stop rain all day.

That's unfair, the experts did predict rain to spread in from the southwest and that is what the models are showing so the pros are right, jeez they have a thankless job.

[johnholmes]

not to worry frosty, you learn to develop a thick skin but that does not affect the professional in you looking at why things do sometimes go the way of the pear and noting how/when/why/how ready for next time, ready to apply a correction factor if it is felt appropriate.

[Methuselah]

Yup the same pro's who predicted a mostly cloudy day here with the odd shower, it's been non stop rain all day.

Perhaps you ought to learn how to interpret national forecasts, for your own area...? 

[johnholmes]

Yup the same pro's who predicted a mostly cloudy day here with the odd shower, it's been non stop rain all day.

so how much have you had in your rain soaked day?