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August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition


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Here's a graph of the August CET (blue) with the 10 year mean (red) and trend line (black)

 

post-6901-0-42960500-1375261854_thumb.gi

 

Seeing as we're very likely to record a July above 18C, I had a look at what the average August CET was when July was equal to or above 18C and 18.5C

 

July 18C or higher = Average August 16.3C

July 18.5C or higher = Average August 16.7C

 

Both Augusts are well above the average of the entire record of 15.6C. The correlation between the July and August CET is the highest of any pair of neighbouring months, at +0.42, which means that more than any other months, a warm July increases the chances of a warm August (and a cool July increases the chances of a cool August).

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I am working on a table of entries which will appear in the other thread soon, to be edited up to around midnight, just to let you know there are 65 entries that have a median of 17.1 C, if you're looking for your own spot, 16.4 is untaken but that's the only one between 15.8 and 18.2 without a tenant (or several). About half the guesses so far are between 16.6 and 17.5.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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