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August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Today looks like coming in around 17.5C, so remaining on 17.0C on tomorrows update.

 

The 12z GFS op run then has the CET around

 

16.9C to the 19th (15.8]

17.0C to the 20th (17.7)

17.0C to the 21st (18.5)

17.2C to the 22nd (19.4)

17.3C to the 23rd (20.6)

17.3C to the 24th (18.0)

17.3C to the 25th (15.5)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

16.9c to the 18th

 

Seems things keep going cooler than the GFS operational predicts!

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Seems things keep going cooler than the GFS operational predicts!

given its 16.9 = 16.94, you weren't wrong by much!
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

16.9c to the 18th

So with Min today of 11.1 and a max of around 20.5 - using the Met office for 5 days then the GFS 0z ensemble mean gives.19th 16.9 (15.8 )20th 16.9 (17.1)21st 16.9 (17.5)22nd 17.0 (18.3)23rd 17.1 (19.3)24th 17.1 (18.5)25th 17.1 (17.0)26th 17.1 (16.25)27th 17.0 (15.0)28th 16.9 (14.0)29th 16.8 (14.5)30th 16.8 (15.0)31st 16.7 (16.0)Looks like we will be quite close to last year after corrections, looking like a final range after corrections of something like 16.3 - 17.3. So still some chance of being at or below 81-10 average, but more likely above all recent averages. Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

It would be criminal if this month finished below average given its been mostly nice and pleasant. Very few cool days, but not that many very warm ones either.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Yeah I think it'll be between 16.5c and 17.0c, but here in the NE it hasn't been exceptionally warm but it has been constantly pleasant. Most days with highs of 18c to 21c, some higher early on in the month, and most low in the early teens bar a few anomalies.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yesterday was 15.3C. The minimum today is 12.0C, while maxima look like reaching above 21C, so remaining on 16.9C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS op has the CET at

16.9C to the 21st (18.0)

17.1C to the 22nd (20.3)

17.1C to the 23rd (17.5)
17.1C to the 24th (16.8]
17.0C to the 25th (15.5)
17.0C to the 26th (16.9)
17.0C to the 27th (16.9)

 

Anything from 16.5C to 17.5C likely before corrections, 16.1C to 17.4C after corrections, but mid to high 16s looking best.
 
So still a small chance of dropping below the 81-10 average of 16.4C.
Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

16.9c to the 19th

Min today of 12.0 max likely around 21.5, so probably staying at 16.9 - althogh a chance of going to 16.8.After that using Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS 6z ensembles after that gives.20th 16.9 (16.8 )21st 16.9 (18.2)22nd 17.0 (18.3)23rd 17.1 (19.6)24th 17.1 (17.7)25th 17.0 (14.5)26th 16.9 (14.5)27th 16.8 (14.8 )28th 16.7 (14.3)29th 16.6 (14.0)30th 16.6 (15.0)31st 16.5 (15.0)I would put my final range a little lower than BFTVs (17.3 - 16.4) but agree that mid to high 16s are most likely. Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

My high today is a poor 16deg  yet its been 16 since 3pm that's 6 hours at 16 deg and counting??

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 14.4C, while maxima look like reaching over 24C, so an increase of tomorrows update to 17.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

 

17.1C to the 23rd (19.1)

17.1C to the 24th (17.4)

17.1C to the 25th (17.7)

17.2C to the 26th (18.0)

17.1C to the 27th (16.6)

17.1C to the 28th (16.8]

17.0C to the 29th (14.0)

 

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

I can smell the victory lol

 

To be fair, August hasn't been too bad. Quite wet, but August is never as intense as July.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

17.0 to the 22nd

Min today of 14.6 max around 24 so a rise to 17.1 likely tomorrow. Met forecasts for 5 days, and the GFS 0z ensemble mean to the end of the month gives.

23rd 17.1 (19.3)

24th 17.0 (15.7)

25th 17.0 (17.25)

26th 17.1 (17.75)

27th 17.0 (16.4)

28th 17.0 (15.5)

29th 16.9 (15.0)

30th 16.9 (16.5)

31st 16.9 (16.0)

Something 17.2 - 16.8 looking likely now before corrections, so 16.4 - 17.2 after corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'd guess that maxima will end up closer to 25C today, so a mean of around 19.7C. which still ends up on 17.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

17.1C to the 24th (18.0)

17.2C to the 25th (17.9)

17.2C to the 26th (18.2)

17.2C to the 27th (16.5)

17.1C to the 28th (14.5)

17.0C to the 29th (14.6)

16.9C to the 30th (15.3)

 

 

Mid to high 16s after corrections still looking best.

 

This means that we'll extend the longest streak without an August CET of 15C or lower to 20 years. The longest streaks previously were 12 years, occurring twice, from 1867 to 1878 and 1757 to 1768.

 

Up to 1993, August CETs of 15C or lower occurred roughly every 3 years.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

17.0 to the 22ndMin today of 14.6 max around 24 so a rise to 17.1 likely tomorrow.

 

I'd guess that maxima will end up closer to 25C today, so a mean of around 19.7C. which still ends up on 17.1C on tomorrows update.

 

Max was 22.9 so we were both well over!

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

17.1 to the 23rd.

 

Min today of 14.5 and max around 19.0

 

So a fall back to 17.0 is possible tomorrow, if not remaining 17.1

 

Using the met forecast for 5 days and the GFS ensemble mean after that

 

24th 17.0 (16.75)

25th 17.1 (17.75)

26th 17.1 (18.0)

27th 17.1 (17.33)

28th 17.1 (16.2)

29th 17.1 (16.5)

30th 17.0 (16.5)

31st 17.0 (16.5)

 

So very unlikely to be at or below any recent average now.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today of 12.7C while maxima look like reaching about 23C, so probably increasing to 17.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

17.0C to the 27th (16.7)

17.1C to the 28th (18.0)

17.1C to the 29th (17.2)

17.1C to the 30th (17.3)

17.0C to the 31st (15.0)

 

16.9 to 17.1C before corrections, and 16.5 to 17.0C after methinks.

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