Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[mushymanrob]

agreed, the GFS is consistent with it's evolution which indeed is now well into the hi-res frames....the 12z run out to T174 is even more progressive with a return to cooler, showery conditions than the 06z output....I'm sure the 12z ECMWF will be eagerly awaited by model watchers, one way or the other

 

well the gfs has been consistent with this proposed breakdown, insisting that the atlantic will kick in after next weeks thundery spell. ok, its been in the  low-res fi region, but if it comes off which is gaining credibility, its just one more reason not to dismiss everything fi shows, and highlights that new patterns often show in fi first.

 

pity.

[snowking]

Looks like winter is about return from the North...

 

 

In all seriousness, it will be a welcome relief for me personally...with perhaps the worst of the humidity yet to come. Its been very difficult trying to sleep...and I like sleep.

 

ECMWF ensembles pointing towards the sharp decrease in temperatures:

 

 

And with Chio suggesting earlier it might be wise to watch for a re-emerging MJO signal:

 

 

The kick in tropical convection leading us seemingly somewhere towards phases 8/1, neither of which look particularly inspiring:

 

Recent increases in AAM too sending the GWO on a quick progression through phases 5-8, and into phase 1.....all of which suggests a more dominant upper troughing, rather than ridging, scenario.

 

So we do finally seem to be nearing the end of this very fine spell of weather (it feels like we have been saying this for about two weeks now!) but one thing is for sure, this has certainly defied my expectation in terms the strength and longevity of a spell that in my LRF for summer looked likely to be a 10 day settled spell between the 10th and 20th, sandwiched in between two less settled spells of weather. Its been both a pleasant surprise, and a pain in the backside!

 

SK

 

[draztik]

I'd be very surprised if the ECM does a complete u-turn. It's slightly annoying that the GFS comes out before the ECM in the evening as it often leads people in here to jump to premature conclusions.

gfs has been incredibly consistent. Ecm, on the other hand, has been chopping and changing.

[The PIT]

Sadly the GFS brings back the heat rather than the lower 20's for us. I wonder if the Met changes the tune tonight going back to more widespread heat this evening. Doesn't look like it so we're at a strange point this evening. Today the last hot day for us or the GFS solution. All eyes on the ECM.

[A.J]

 

well the gfs has been consistent with this proposed breakdown, insisting that the atlantic will kick in after next weeks thundery spell. ok, its been in the  low-res fi region, but if it comes off which is gaining credibility, its just one more reason not to dismiss everything fi shows, and highlights that new patterns often show in fi first.

 

pity.

I hope it's the case Mushy as deep Fi shows the AH ridging back into UK inferring hints of a return to settled, warm weather....here's hoping!

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO and GEM both seemingly want to being an area of thunderstorms north during Monday and Monday night. Could be a good light show for a lucky few.

 

UKMO Monday afternoon...

 

 

GEM Monday night...

 

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Scorcher]

gfs has been incredibly consistent. Ecm, on the other hand, has been chopping and changing.

 

ECM has been very consistent actually over the last few days, can you explain what you mean?

[049balt]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23382924

 

The Jetstream is also meant to be diving south by midweek, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a massive downgrade from the ECM. Looks like mid-week a breakdown will finally happen.

Very Interesting, this looks like a return to sunny spells and showers for some of us.

[049balt]

Looks like winter is about return from the North...

 

 

In all seriousness, it will be a welcome relief for me personally...with perhaps the worst of the humidity yet to come. Its been very difficult trying to sleep...and I like sleep.

 

ECMWF ensembles pointing towards the sharp decrease in temperatures:

 

Screen Shot 2013-07-19 at 17.44.23.png

 

And with Chio suggesting earlier it might be wise to watch for a re-emerging MJO signal:

 

 

The kick in tropical convection leading us seemingly somewhere towards phases 8/1, neither of which look particularly inspiring:

AugustPhase1500mb.gifAugustPhase8500mb.gif

 

Recent increases in AAM too sending the GWO on a quick progression through phases 5-8, and into phase 1.....all of which suggests a more dominant upper troughing, rather than ridging, scenario.

 

So we do finally seem to be nearing the end of this very fine spell of weather (it feels like we have been saying this for about two weeks now!) but one thing is for sure, this has certainly defied my expectation in terms the strength and longevity of a spell that in my LRF for summer looked likely to be a 10 day settled spell between the 10th and 20th, sandwiched in between two less settled spells of weather. Its been both a pleasant surprise, and a pain in the backside!

 

SK

Another fantastic post SK. Looking forward to some cooling down and maybe some rain.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO and GEM both seemingly want to being an area of thunderstorms north during Monday and Monday night. Could be a good light show for a lucky few.

GEM is a great run if you want thunderstorms, Monday night, then two plumes on Thursday and Saturday night. It would be nice if it happened considering the spectacular plume fails of recent years.

 

[draztik]

NAVGEM in line with GFS also.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows something we haven't had for a while over us from mid next week low pressure that doesn't mean it will be instantly colder though Wednesday could be a very humid day with thunderstorms about

 

[Captain Shortwave]

NAVGEM in line with GFS also.

One thing to say about that run is Monday and Tuesday would be seriously hot, in fact the 2M temperatures show 36C for both days 

But....

It's the NAVGEM 

[Evening thunder]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

 

Not really in terms of temps, it upgrades temps slightly in the reliable timeframe..

 

e.g Monday:

06z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/06/81/ukmaxtemp.png

12z http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/12/75/ukmaxtemp.png

 

Tuesday:

06z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/06/105/ukmaxtemp.png

12z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

 

Sunday slightly warmer down south on the 12z too.

 

You don't have to keep telling us that a breakdown is coming (and only posting about models supporting the quickest breakdown..), we know that the models are all showing some kind of breakdown or breakdown attempt some time next week. Will be interesting to see what the ECM shows later and whether it shifts as atm it's latest run doesn't really bring cool weather in until after day 10 (thundery though, so a breakdown of dry weather to some extent yes). 

 

I was slightly surprised at the Met Office 3-5 day foecast for SW England saying staying fine and largely dry, becoming hot and humid, with only isolated thundery showers possible on Tuesday, as the GFS at least wants more thundery/showery activity by then.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Evening thunder]

back chasing high pressure in FI? Well, there's a novelty

 

Didn't stop you chasing a breakdown in FI (yes it looks like one will probably occur, so things fist shown in FI can be correct at times, and a breakdown isn't that unexpected in the UK.. took it's time).

 

ah double post, thought this would add on to my previous post

Edited July 19, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Cheshire Freeze]

I was slightly surprised at the Met Office 3-5 day foecast for SW England saying staying fine and largely dry, becoming hot and humid, with only isolated thundery showers possible on Tuesday, as the GFS at least wants more thundery/showery activity by then.

 

So do the other models. Monday into Tuesday looks interesting at present for round 1.

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

I was slightly surprised at the Met Office 3-5 day foecast for SW England saying staying fine and largely dry, becoming hot and humid, with only isolated thundery showers possible on Tuesday, as the GFS at least wants more thundery/showery activity by then.

The GFS op was once again more progressive than the ensembles which show the low moving in Wednesday night. I have to admit that maybe a more cautious approach might have been a good idea like stating the risk of thundery downpours developing during the week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS op was once again more progressive than the ensembles which show the low moving in Wednesday night. I have to admit that maybe a more cautious approach might have been a good idea like stating the risk of thundery downpours developing during the week.

 

Ensemble mean at 78 hrs....(Monday evening)

 

 

Control run for Tuesday evening...

 

 

Suggestive that things could kick off on Monday. This is given some weight by the UKMO 12z which the Met would have unlikely seen when those text forecasts were written.

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Evening thunder]

So do the other models. Monday into Tuesday looks interesting at present for round 1.

 

Yes I thought the other models probably would too, had only looked at GFS precip/CAPE charts at the point of posting.

 

The GFS op was once again more progressive than the ensembles which show the low moving in Wednesday night. I have to admit that maybe a more cautious approach might have been a good idea like stating the risk of thundery downpours developing during the week.

You may be right, always hard to predict thundery weather, just thought the forecast sounded drier than most models show.. though I have just realised it's for Sunday to Tuesday when for some reason I was thinking it went to Wednesday.. lol

[Barry12]

I've a gut feeling the GFS is an outliner, nothing is set in stone though. Also, it's only one run, and is F1.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Barry95

[Captain Shortwave]

Ensemble mean at 78 hrs....(Monday evening)

 

 

Control run for Tuesday evening...

 

I would say note where the various precipitation is, you can see a clump out in the Atlantic which is where the low is positioned, the rain on Monday looks to be an area of big storms developing in the preceding plume and crossing the channel.

Actually it looks like Tuesday could run the same thing with thunderstorms breaking out over France and pushing north ahead of the main low system.

Monday and Tuesday look hot and humid with the slight risk of home grown storms and apparently a higher risk of importing some big storms from France during the evenings.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

SK, those MJO plots are again very low amplitude and i would suggest not of much use. the ncep plot does break out of the circle but until the ecm/ukmo follows suit, i'm not looking at the mjo for guidance.

 

check out the Tmaxes on the 12z GEM run on the france view. 34c !!!!!

[snowking]

SK, those MJO plots are again very low amplitude and i would suggest not of much use. the ncep plot does break out of the circle but until the ecm/ukmo follows suit, i'm not looking at the mjo for guidance.

 

check out the Tmaxes on the 12z GEM run on the france view. 34c !!!!!

Hi BA

 

Perfectly aware of that. I'm looking at where the signal is heading

 

SK

[Cheshire Freeze]

I've a gut feeling the GFS is an outliner, nothing is set in stone though. Also, it's only one run, and is F1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I started to get wound up then, before realising what you were doing

[A.J]

-

aye, the charts scream potential, but more runs needed, otherwise it's nailed on for a pattern change, providing of course that we're not clutching at straws, after all it is only one run, and thus should be taken with a pinch of salt, otherwise it's a rinse and repeat....so my hunch tells me...