Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[Weather Boy]

Would I be right in thinking that could bring endless chances of thunderstorms during diurnal heating? 

 

Looking purely at the op charts, my interepretation of the ECM if it verified next week would be hot mostly sunny days with the risk of some significant storms, probably mainly confined to England and Wales at least at first from mid-week on.  I don't know if other more experienced model watchers have a different view?

 

Someone posted Peter Gibbs's view.  He's a professional, I am not, so I think that he should be listened to.  He seems to think that there is little risk of widespread thunder for next week at this point.

[Barry12]

The ECM is very good, the GFS is very bad.

 

The ECM is a very good model, the GFS is a very bad model.

 

Hot next week then?

[Weather Boy]

Its rather bizarre to me. The models suggest a return to cooler conditions, and members here persist to think the opposite. Good luck with that, i forgot you all had your own home grown models calculating continuous HP over us. Some people need to get a grip of reality.

 

I'm sorry, but that is simply not the case.  The GFS, supported to some extent the UKMO points to a return to cooler conditions.  The ECM does not.  Therefore it is incorrect to say "The models suggest" and simply overlook the best performing one of the three!

 

I do not understand why anyone should form such a dogmatic view that may or may not be correct.  It's not scientific to just ignore one of the major models because of your own agenda.  Nobody knows what will happen for sure later next week, but Peter Gibbs is against your view, for one.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Weather Boy

[Cheshire Freeze]

Let's have a look at the operational output from the big 3.

 

GFS 168...

 

 

ECM 168...

 

 

UKMO 144....

 

 

GFS 168 mean...

 

 

ECM mean at 168....

 

 

GEFS...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=234&y=53

 

 

Those who say there aren't signs of a breakdown looming are living in denial based on the above output. That's not to say the heat won't re-establish thereafter however.

[Andy Bown]

Someone posted Peter Gibbs's view.  He's a professional, I am not, so I think that he should be listened to.  He seems to think that there is little risk of widespread thunder for next week at this point.

It wasn't the views of BBC forecaster Peter Gibbs but those of Martyn Gibbs who is Net Weather member Gibby.

[storm1080]

Stage 1 of the "breakdown" is "95% inevitable" ;-), it's what happens after. After all a breakdown/blip could last 24 hours...It's what happens post-breakdown that intrigues/concerns me. If the azores high ridge can steer any secondary lows away that would be great, but I can't help feeling we're in for a) the 1st low hanging around a while, or B, esp via the GFS, successive lows..

Edited July 19, 2013 by storm1080

[Weather Boy]

It wasn't the views of BBC forecaster Peter Gibbs but those of Martyn Gibbs who is Net Weather member Gibby.

 

Whoops!  Right you are!

 

I agree that there are "signs of a breakdown looming", CreweCold, but I didn't say otherwise (assuming you were aiming your comment at me).

 

The statement that I corrected is factually wrong in its dogmatism.  It referred to "cooler" weather, which the ECM does not support.  It is therefore factually wrong that "the models [all] suggest a return to cooler conditions."  The highest performing model does not suggest cooler conditions, in particular when looking at the ensemble mean.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It wasn't the views of BBC forecaster Peter Gibbs but those of Martyn Gibbs who is Net Weather member Gibby.

 

LOL easy mistake to make  I actually went on the BBC weather website to look at the uploaded video of Peter Gibbs dismissing thunder potential.....only to find it didn't exist!

 (assuming you were aiming your comment at me).

 

 

Not at all. Wasn't aiming at anyone, it was a general model observation

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[NUT]

Is this going to be a nationwide major thundery breakdown or a very wet one? GFS Still shows little energy for us up here to at least end of the week

[The PIT]

Wow sudden shift in the model runs and what the met thinks. Checked the met office forecast for us and the hot spells ends for us today with it becoming pleasantly warm if and only if the cloud burns back to the coast. GFS makes it more of a one dayer cool down before the heat is back and then a possible Thundery breakdown.

Cooler by Thursday. Who do you belief though. Low confidence in the forecasts and FI probably coming under the T96 time zone.

[Paul]

Can we drop the name calling and point scoring please!

[Barry12]

12z GFS shows a breakdown starting on Thursday

 

Edited July 19, 2013 by Barry95

[Cheshire Freeze]

Next week is starting to look potentially very wet in places with bands of thundery rain and showers pushing up from the S

 

[draztik]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

[Barry12]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

 

The reliable looks good to me

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

 

GFS has the jet firing up and directing on a NW-SE trajectory.

 

 

What the heat lovers won't want to see is the HP building in behind this, raising the pressure in a belt from Scandi to Greenland. That's one way we could end up with a 2007-esque slow moving trough over us.

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[A.J]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

agreed, the GFS is consistent with it's evolution which indeed is now well into the hi-res frames....the 12z run out to T174 is even more progressive with a return to cooler, showery conditions than the 06z output....I'm sure the 12z ECMWF will be eagerly awaited by model watchers, one way or the other

[NUT]

GFS seems to be dropping the temperatures dramatically from thursday (looking really quite miserable possibly with a lot of heavy rain around)

[Barry12]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23382924

 

The Jetstream is also meant to be diving south by midweek, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a massive downgrade from the ECM. Looks like mid-week a breakdown will finally happen.

[Buzzit]

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

Nope it is actually a lot more positive for a heat re-load in FI (if that is what you are looking for).

Edited July 19, 2013 by Buzzit

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A good run in my eyes for some really thundery weather. It does show substantially cooler weather later, however, more runs will be needed for sure until we have a full settlement on the outcome ahead. 

At least it is looking like it will go out with a massive bang

[J10]

SE could be in for some heavy rain according to GFS, especially around the Channel coastal areas, but GFS is prone to overdoing these sort of features and associated rainfall.

 

While the general theme of a big increase in thundery and convective potential seems agreed, which in some instances equate to a breakdown (certainly of the settled spell), what follows is the big question. A long unsettled spell, or just a blip in the longer term not bad weather.

[Scorcher]

The GFS 12Z is actually a slight improvement in the reliable timeframe on the 06Z but it's still a lot more progressive than the ECM was this morning- I personally still think it's overdoing that area of low pressure and its progress towards us- as someone was saying before, the models often struggle with cut off lows and I think this could be subject to change very late in the day.

 

I'd be very surprised if the ECM does a complete u-turn. It's slightly annoying that the GFS comes out before the ECM in the evening as it often leads people in here to jump to premature conclusions.

[draztik]

Nope it is actually a lot more positive for a heat re-load in FI (if that is what you are looking for).

back chasing high pressure in FI? Well, there's a novelty

[Captain Shortwave]

Well so far it's a split in the models GFS/UKMO vs GEM/this mornings ECM

GEM following the Azores high rebuild of the ECM

Disappointing GFS though and the longer term doesn't exactly look spiffing. UKMO has developed the cut off low a little bit but it seems to be making a compromise with the gfs and having it stay further north hence the faster breakdown.