Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[Methuselah]

 

 

Not too much cold air on the chart, MT...

[ANYWEATHER]

Not too much cold air on the chart, MT...

Ha Ha, Its increasing!!!   

[Frosty.]

Here comes the heat again, the Ecm 12z holds the heat across the southeast into next weekend but it also looks very thundery during that period with a thundery trough forming but three very hot & sultry days for the southeast if it verifies, we all get a taste of this heat and humidity but the further away from the southeast hot zone you go, the less hot it becomes although 26 celsius is nothing to be sniffed at across northwest england, the southeast looks like breaking through the 90 F barrier again, high 80's on thursday, low 90's on friday and saturday too as the ecm hangs on to the heat that bit longer than the gfs 12z, beyond the thundery plume, settling down and although not as hot, remaining warm with temperatures in the mid 20's celsius and combined with lower humidity, it would feel perfect, another exciting week ahead with the magical 564 dam line paying us another welcome visit. 

Edited July 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[ANYWEATHER]

Here comes the heat again, the Ecm 12z holds the heat across the southeast into next weekend but it also looks very thundery during that period with a thundery trough forming but three very hot & sultry days for the southeast if it verifies, we all get a taste of this heat and humidity but the further away from the southeast hot zone you go, the less hot it becomes although 26 celsius is nothing to be sniffed at across northwest england, the southeast looks like breaking through the 90 F barrier again, high 80's on thursday, low 90's on friday and saturday too as the ecm hangs on to the heat that bit longer than the gfs 12z, beyond the thundery plume, settling down and although not as hot, remaining warm with temperatures in the mid 20's celsius and combined with lower humidity, it would feel perfect, another exciting week ahead with the magical 564 dam line paying us another welcome visit. 

  

[JK1]

Here comes the heat again, the Ecm 12z holds the heat across the southeast into next weekend but it also looks very thundery during that period with a thundery trough forming but three very hot & sultry days for the southeast if it verifies, we all get a taste of this heat and humidity but the further away from the southeast hot zone you go, the less hot it becomes although 26 celsius is nothing to be sniffed at across northwest england, the southeast looks like breaking through the 90 F barrier again, high 80's on thursday, low 90's on friday and saturday too as the ecm hangs on to the heat that bit longer than the gfs 12z, beyond the thundery plume, settling down and although not as hot, remaining warm with temperatures in the mid 20's celsius and combined with lower humidity, it would feel perfect, another exciting week ahead with the magical 564 dam line paying us another welcome visit. 

whats is magical 564 dam line ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

whats is magical 564 dam line ?

 

horrid, by the sounds of it 38°C or near enough, I like 516, early 500's late 400's!

[Frosty.]

whats is magical 564 dam line ?

If you like hot continental weather in summer, it's magic in my opinion, it's not often we share the same type of weather as mainland europe and i'm making the most of it while it lasts although i'm then hoping for an equally exciting winter with cold and snow, then it's the 510 dam line that's magic.

[Milhouse]

The ECM pressure anomaly chart shows the uncertainty for prospects looking out to day 10. But what is clear is the there is no sign as yet of a return to last years pattern with below average pressure over and to the NW of the UK.

 

A closer look at temperatures for Thursday, still subject to change though.

 

[nick sussex]

horrid, by the sounds of it 38°C or near enough, I like 516, early 500's late 400's!

I wouldn't worry about 38c theres no chance of that, around 30c and that's with no further eastwards corrections in the output. The heat doesn't last long enough to deliver anything of note although given the hysteria by the UK media over recent weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see a COBRA meeting called!

[Milhouse]

nighttime minima looking high once again. The August CET should start with a significant positive anomaly by the weekend.

 

[Frosty.]

I wouldn't worry about 38c theres no chance of that, around 30c and that's with no further eastwards corrections in the output. The heat doesn't last long enough to deliver anything of note although given the hysteria by the UK media over recent weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see a COBRA meeting called!

32 celsius is pretty good though, the southeast will be sweltering on thursday, friday and possibly saturday? then high pressure, what a dream summer this is.

[JK1]

If you like hot continental weather in summer, it's magic in my opinion, it's not often we share the same type of weather as mainland europe and i'm making the most of it while it lasts although i'm then hoping for an equally exciting winter with cold and snow, then it's the 510 dam line that's magic.

ok, love the hot continental weather but not the cold and snow that's evil

Edited July 28, 2013 by JK1

[snowmadchrisuk]

horrid, by the sounds of it 38°C or near enough, I like 516, early 500's late 400's!

 

You only need 528 dam for precipitation to fall as Snow , late 400's would be the Coldest spell over the UK for a very long time . 

[shuggee]

nighttime minima looking high once again. The August CET should start with a significant positive anomaly by the weekend.

Shame I'm not on the map to see what conditions are like here *Pffft*

[texel]

Shame I'm not on the map to see what conditions are like here *Pffft*

Looks good to me.

[johnholmes]

You only need 528 dam for precipitation to fall as Snow , late 400's would be the Coldest spell over the UK for a very long time . 

not true re the 528 DM 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You only need 528 dam for precipitation to fall as Snow , late 400's would be the Coldest spell over the UK for a very long time . 

 

Generally not here, depends on so many other factors as well, why I like 522 and lower really

[shaky]

Well well ecm brings the hot plume back with a bang for england and wales!!considering its last two runs kind off ditched the plume its another turn around!!and the best thing is is that it builds the azores high across the uk straightaway once again!!temps probably into the mid twentis after saturday!!

Edit:so this long hot summer continues!!absolutely amazing!!who would have seen this coming just two months ago especially after all the crappy summers we have had in the past 6 years!!

Edited July 28, 2013 by shaky

[Alex]

I wouldn't worry about 38c theres no chance of that, around 30c and that's with no further eastwards corrections in the output. The heat doesn't last long enough to deliver anything of note although given the hysteria by the UK media over recent weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see a COBRA meeting called!

You ought to have watched the BBC when we had the heat - so negative - everyone was apparently going to die and the advice was so OTT.In regards to the models - looks like the heat progged for the end of this coming week has been shifted east slightly, therefore eastern coastal areas may be close to the 20c uppers but not as inland as earlier runs. Something to watch!

[Alex]

Around 800 people did die from heat related illnesses, we aren't all fit and healthy.

I understand that heat doesn't suit anyone but my point was that the BBC made a real negative view of the heatwave, there wasn't much programming spent on how people were enjoying themselves or how the tourism industry had a mini boom! Just an observation.

[nick sussex]

Around 800 people did die from heat related illnesses, we aren't all fit and healthy.

Well the Tories will be happy, less benefits to pay out, apparently they were going to introduce a Brave New World policy and start culling the old to cut the welfare budget down but instead are going to order a few more heatwaves!Sorry couldn't resist that! unfortunately unless someone can order a narrow range of temps then weather will always impact peoples health but theres no way the NHS can correlate directly heat to deaths, it just saves them having to put died on a trolley whilst the consultant was having a Pimms and checking his share prices!Back to the models and I can't see this hot weather lasting more than 2 days, the main heat looks like staying across the Channel which will be a relief to some, disappointment to others and particularly sad for the Daily Express!Apologies to film buffs I got my films mixed up, its Logans Run! Edited July 28, 2013 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

Right time to lock this one now.

 

New thread here  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/