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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.


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As great as the short term forecasts are from the ECMWF it's long range forecasts leave a lot to be desired. It is currently forecasting a warm-neutral ENSO for summer along with higher than average tropical pressures (both have busted), as such i remain extremely skeptical.

Indeed, in fact it's probably thee worst long range model out there, which is saying something considering how bad most of them are.
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Indeed, in fact it's probably thee worst long range model out there, which is saying something considering how bad most of them are.

What you say may or may not be correct I do not know. Some will find it interesting never the less.

What I do know is that the big negative winter AO and NAO of 2009/10 was forcast consistently

from as early as July going into the fall and then through August and the Autumn months going

through the winter. Although seeing how negative the AO was that winter the signal could have

been extremely strong and therefore very hard to miss considering we had a El Nino, negative

QBO and very low solar activity.

What I should have added to the post above was the long range forcasts

were from the ECM model for the winter 09/10

Edited by J10
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I wonder if we will see a September heatwave. This from 1999http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyD6gxxMmhM

 

Hope so before we enter the long dark nights of Late October through to late January before we can finally see an end in sight

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According to Bret Anderson (accuweather) the ECMWF long range seasonal forecast

that runs through the winter came out on the 8th suggests a -AO for the winter 13/14.

 

Mr Anderson is a Canadian meteorologist so only gives an idea what conditions may

be like for during fall and winter for Canada and the US. A warm fall is depicted

throughout most of canada during fall and surprisingly despite a negative AO pattern

being shown through the winter there is no real sign of cold or snow throughout the

US which would normally be expected during a blocking and negative AO regime.

 

The model also forecasts a neutral enso perhaps becomming weak Nino during

second half of winter.

 

I thought the long range ECMWF was for three months at the most - how come this meteorologist is extrapolating winter 13-14 on a product that will barely touch this December?

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I am not sure how to post links or text but this is taken from the ECMWF web site

section seasonal forecasts.

 

The coupled model

Every day the coupled model is intergrated forward to make a six month forecast.

Once a month these forecasts are collected together to create a ensembly forecast

with about 30 members. Because of model error, a drift occurrs after coupling which

is not small compared to the size of the signal being predicted. This drift is subtracted

from the model fields once the intergration is complete.Full coupling is applied between

atmosphere and ocean.Various forecasts products are generated,showing both sst

anomalies and the predicted atmosphere response.

 

 

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Hope so before we enter the long dark nights of Late October through to late January before we can finally see an end in sight

 

You're having a larf, right? Late Oct - late Jan = 3 months.Hardly fair! How's about it being dark at 1630 from late August - late May? That would be much more like it.

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You're having a larf, right? Late Oct - late Jan = 3 months.Hardly fair! How's about it being dark at 1630 from late August - late May? That would be much more like it.

 

Nope that would be way too long 3 months is more than long enough for most in this country

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Not for me, Dark at 4.30 every day all year around would do me proud, along with blizzards and snowdrifts - No summer thanks, maybe just a little bit of Autumn in july with temps of 10 or 12c just for a bit of respite, then gradually dipping and brutal from sept 1st onwards.

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Not for me, Dark at 4.30 every day all year around would do me proud, along with blizzards and snowdrifts - No summer thanks, maybe just a little bit of Autumn in july with temps of 10 or 12c just for a bit of respite, then gradually dipping and brutal from sept 1st onwards.

 

Wow - you're even more hardcore than me! I reckon dark evenings are way more popular than some folk care to admit, gawd knows why not...

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Wow - you're even more hardcore than me! I reckon dark evenings are way more popular than some folk care to admit, gawd knows why not...

 

Yes, I certainly am not a big fan of summer, its not that I actually get some kind of kick out of dull weather, it just means the sun cannot be out therefore not causing my home to be like an oven.

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Wow - you're even more hardcore than me! I reckon dark evenings are way more popular than some folk care to admit, gawd knows why not...

 

Dark evenings are popular with me - in winter.

 

I like my seasonal variations.

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Seasons come, seasons go, it is not like they are sprung upon us by suprise.  Like it or hate it the days do and will change.  I can think of bigger more important things to worry and/or complain about in life.

Edited by Jax
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Seasons come, seasons go, it is not like they are sprung upon us by suprise.  Like it or hate it the days do and will change.  I can think of bigger more important things to worry and/or complain about in life.

 

Like what?? Saying that is tantamount to saying we'd better not talk about anything at all, lest its magnitude or importance is questioned.

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Seasons come, seasons go, it is not like they are sprung upon us by suprise.  Like it or hate it the days do and will change.  I can think of bigger more important things to worry and/or complain about in life.

...but possibly not on a weather forum lol

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Posted Image

 

Ooooft! Though that was from the 25th July run.

 

Sorry to go off the autumn topic but you may like the latest Jan forecast pressure anomaly....

 

post-10987-0-38210400-1376346781_thumb.p

Edited by CreweCold
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Not for me, Dark at 4.30 every day all year around would do me proud, along with blizzards and snowdrifts - No summer thanks, maybe just a little bit of Autumn in july with temps of 10 or 12c just for a bit of respite, then gradually dipping and brutal from sept 1st onwards.

 

I think we've got the best of both worlds, sun sets at 3:30 in December and constant twilight in midsummer, I'd hate to give either of those up though!

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Just thought that i would note a development which is contrary to Spring this summer has seen the MEI, PDO and GLAAM trend increasingly negative. 

 

In my opinion this is further evidence that the atmosphere is beginning to move towards a La Nina base state as we look towards winter (albeit weak at best).

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