Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I know I said I would like a stormy October but if someone offered an October 1740 repeat to me then I would take that over the gales. I wonder if those conditions are even possible without a volcanic eruption, considering the October 1740 CET value was a massive 1.1C colder than October 1817 (2nd coldest October). I'm no expert so wouldn't be able to answer this question myself, but I'm sure someone on here could. What kind of synoptics would be needed to even get an October in the 6's?

It will be a very hard pattern to sustain in the non-winter months but to get a really cold October (sub 7C) we would be looking for the same sort of Synoptics that give us Freezing winter months.  Such months have a very strong and flat southern arm of the Polar Jet combined with a highly amplified ridge-trough pattern in the northern arm of the Polar Jet.  Also the Greenland High often alternately ridges into Scandinavia and retrogresses so that we get Arctic/Continental Polar airmasses coming from both Easterly and Northerly quarters keeping the milder Atlantic and Continental Tropical airmasses at bay.

Edited July 13, 2013 by Craig Evans

[laserguy]

Years ago when I was winning prizes in the Manchester area I used a mix of elderberries, plums, the deep red variety, and one banana, seemd to work very well, tasted superb as well?

 

I've never heard of banana in a wine but if you've won prizes...! What do you use to get rid of the starch??

 

October - stormy or cold, I don't mind so long as it's not an Indian summer type and a continuation of this horrendous summer proper.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a brief summary of what my research output shows for temperature trends alone ... the rest of the summer season is mainly on the warm side of normal through late August. Then September becomes more variable and close to normal. A two-week interval from late September to about the tenth of October looks quite cold (-3 anomalies) then it gradually warms to above normal through late October into mid-November. After that it turns rather cold again, nothing on the scale of 2010 but coldish.

 

Then I considered what those trends might mean when integrated with analogues for circulation type/

 

This led me to the conclusion that large-scale blocking over Europe already underway and likely to return several times in August, would transition to a more mobile westerly Atlantic-dominated flow in September, with some warmer intervals possibly minor returns to the summer pattern. Then this would evolve into more of a northerly in early October possibly due to late September retrogression breaking up the zonal pattern and a Greenland high briefly establishing itself as dominant. That would be followed by a gradual return to blocking over north-central Europe and a southeast to south type circulation in later October and that would be followed by high-latitude zonal flow by early November.

 

The implications of all that for precip would be continued very dry into August, increasingly normal amounts late in the month then a rather wet September especially in northern parts of Britain and Ireland, then decreasing amounts in October with possibly a rather dry end to that month, followed by a north-south split in November with very wet conditions likely at times in the north and near normal overall in the south.

 

I will perhaps revise this from any new research done before mid-August but I doubt that I am going to do enough of that to change this output more than marginally so this will probably be a final forecast from me on this season. The winter output looks generally rather cold again. Will be working on that as usual during the early autumn.

[Polar Maritime]

Sounds promising RJS. 

[Relativistic]

Thanks for the replies guys

[laserguy]

There's a thread somewhere about this, but has anyone noticed the shortening daylight yet? If you really look hard ( and like me have a reference point to see exactly where on the horizon the sun disappears!) then yes I have. But having worked nights last week, the effect is quite readily noticable in the morning.  Now losing over 2 minutes a day and accelerating... it's coming!

[laserguy]

Signs of autumn #2 -  noticed today the first tiny clusters of flowers on me hop plant....

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's a thread somewhere about this, but has anyone noticed the shortening daylight yet? If you really look hard ( and like me have a reference point to see exactly where on the horizon the sun disappears!) then yes I have. But having worked nights last week, the effect is quite readily noticable in the morning.  Now losing over 2 minutes a day and accelerating... it's coming!

 

For my location, the sun rises approximately 20 minutes later now than it did on the longest day. Lost about 11/12 minutes on the sunset. A long way to go yet!

[March Blizzard]

I think it starts to become really noticeable from about mid August onwards.

[Jax]

Signs of autumn #2 -  noticed today the first tiny clusters of flowers on me hop plant....

 

 

Posted Today, 12:28

There's a thread somewhere about this, but has anyone noticed the shortening daylight yet? If you really look hard ( and like me have a reference point to see exactly where on the horizon the sun disappears!) then yes I have. But having worked nights last week, the effect is quite readily noticable in the morning.  Now losing over 2 minutes a day and accelerating... it's coming!

 

We will accelerate that trend until the end of October, then it will tail off until December.

Edited July 14, 2013 by Jax

[hillbilly]

We will accelerate that trend until the end of October, then it will tail off until December.

it is only just noticeable,hasnt moved much ,I think the two weeks around the solstice only moves by a few mins we may have lost 10 to 15 mins at night and maybe 20 mins in morning since the morning turns a few days before the solstice and the evenings about the 25th.still plenty of evenings left a clear night makes much more difference to the evening light a few years here since we had clear skies around june 23 to 28th giving the shortest of nights!!!!!

[Relativistic]

I think it starts to become really noticeable from about mid August onwards.

Yep, certainly around here from mid August it is very noticeable in the evenings. My earliest morning of each week is 5:30am and at the end of August waking up at that time it's not 100% light. Edited July 14, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[johnholmes]

19 minutes in the morning and 11 in the evening so far for my weather station data.

[Jax]

You can see the numbers on the link below

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=136

[Jax]

Also think this link is also a good visual indicator as you can see the curve change as the balance of light and dark shifts

 

 

 

http://www.die.net/earth/

[Tony27]

its only noticeable if you know what time the sunrises and sets everyday, non weather enthusiasts won't have noticed it yet, its only around 10-15 minutes, of course it speeds up at the end of july and in august, that's when everyone will notice the difference in daylight

Edited July 17, 2013 by Tony27

[Weather-history]

What is classic autumn weather?

When we think of classic winter weather, its frost, snow, ice. When we think of classic summer weather, its sun, heat, dry.

So what is classic autumn weather? Gales, rain?

But Keats says its the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness.

[Lettucing Gutted]

So what is classic autumn weather? Gales, rain?But Keats says its the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness.

I would like to think of a classic autumn as a changeable season similar in that respect to classic springs but with a reverse temperature trend of course.  In each month there should be lengthy spells of cool stormy and/or cool showery weather alternating with lengthy calm periods giving cold nights and milder days with only short periods of unseasonably warm and wintry weather in each month.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Craig Evans

[March Blizzard]

Classic autumnal weather to me is mild, wet and windy, overall.

I actually consider September as nearer to Summer than Autumn; it's often warm, settled and generally quite pleasant. Most trees are still green and have all their leaves.

October starts Autumn "proper". Very mild, wet. Trees begin to "turn".

By November Autumn is in full swing. Mild/cool, wet and windy. This trend often carries on well into December, which often can feel more Autumnal than September.

That's my take on it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I do enjoy September though.

 

If you do get a warm spell (24 - 26c) at least it cools down at night, plus you can get some lovely misty mornings.

 

For me this forum comes alive in Autumn/Winter............the anticipation and build up to winter and then the drama of model watching!

 

We may all go a bit mad, but what other season has 1000 people all viewing the model thread at the same time!

[summer blizzard]

A perfect Autumn to me is one with a stormy October followed by a much more settled November. Perhaps Oct 00 and Nov 05.

[laserguy]

All this talk of autumn is making me misty-eyed. I now don't much care what it brings, seeing the back of this god-awful summer will be more than enough.

[Radiating Dendrite]

All this talk of autumn is making me misty-eyed. I now don't much care what it brings, seeing the back of this god-awful summer will be more than enough.

 

Over half way through summer now LG.

 

Hang on in there! Those darker evenings are getting ever closer.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Another day closer!

 

Ended up having to sleep on the couch last night as the bedroom was just too warm and I was covered in sweat!

 

This heat is really doing my head in now! It is too hot to do anything, and people who moan about being cold in winter...........stick a jumper on! On the flipside, if I am too hot and am wearing only my pants exactly what else can I do!!

 

Rant over

[summer blizzard]

Another day closer! Ended up having to sleep on the couch last night as the bedroom was just too warm and I was covered in sweat! This heat is really doing my head in now! It is too hot to do anything, and people who moan about being cold in winter...........stick a jumper on! On the flipside, if I am too hot and am wearing only my pants exactly what else can I do!! Rant over

Sleep on your covers, just use a price of card to fan you when you go to sleep and you should without cover cool naturally overnight.