Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[EML Network]

Yes it looks like summer is going to continue well into September and I'd not be surprised to see Autumn coming out between + 0.5 and + 1 CET for temperature with the normal caveats.

 

All the indications are pointing toward September being a month of two halves, with a gradual unsettling of weather type as we go through the month.

 

I'd not be surprised to see the South and East continuing generally dry and settled right through until the final 1/3  September though.  

 

Indeed today is a good example of Autumn knocking on the door with both increased wind speed and a slight and  general lowering of temperature nationwide especially early on and tomorrow that will be evident early on as well I would suspect. 

 

I still believe that when Atlantic High Pressure does finally allow a Low pressure system to barrel roll it's way to these shores it's going to be a shock to the system and I'd not be surprised to see a series of them rolling in throughout mid to late October.

 

I still think that in either October or November , we'll see a noteworthy storm worthy of making headline news.

 

Guess we'll just have to wait and see, I just have a niggling feeling that everything is set for that to happen, especially given the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly's favour maintaining energy of systems around the UK.  So as opposed to seeing Low pressure systems loose intensity as soon as they get to within 200-300 miles of the UK, we might see that the drop in intensity is not as great and we could get hit by some hefty low's 

Edited August 31, 2013 by EML Network

[laserguy]

 

 

I still think that in either October or November , we'll see a noteworthy storm worthy of making headline news.

 

Guess we'll just have to wait and see, I just have a niggling feeling that everything is set for that to happen, especially given the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly's favour maintaining energy of systems around the UK.  

 

I really hope this comes to pass - things have been so dull and so boring for so long that I fear I may slip into a coma. We need a massive storm!

[weatherguy]

So as opposed to seeing Low pressure systems loose intensity as soon as they get to within 200-300 miles of the UK, we might see that the drop in intensity is not as great and we could get hit by some hefty low's 

 

You mean the GFS might be right for once? 

[Relativistic]

Much better today, although still not Autumnal I would say. Cooler, with a temperature of 18C, so still very comfortable to sit outside in, and breezier too. With pristine blue skies however it still feels like Summer.

[Summer Sun]

The met office are going for 26c in London on Wednesday with Monday and Tuesday both forecast to hit 24c Thursday has a highest range of 28c (curtsey of BBC weather)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1378249200

 

Looking like the warmth will last well into the evening as well for London

 

19c at 22:00 on Monday

 

20c at 22:00 on Tuesday

 

22c at 22:00 on Wednesday

[summer blizzard]

Feels more like spring to me really. Chilly breeze, cold mornings but fairly sunny during the day.

 

Stratosphere on the way down now...

 

[Summer Sun]

Another one of the long range models which points towards an average or slightly warmer than normal autumn is the Beijing climate center model

 

 

Rainfall looks average to below normal in some western areas

 

Edited August 31, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Dancerwithwings]

The latest long range data from the NCEP for october and november as temps below average.

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Edited August 31, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

The latest long range data from the NCEP for october and november as temps below average.

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

That's changed since it was updated on netweather's LRF page

 

[Dancerwithwings]

(That's changed since it was updated on netweather's LRF page ) How crazy !!! That was updated on the 23rd August, Just how the charts can change so much, The mind boggles ???

When was the LRF page updated

[Summer Sun]

(That's changed since it was updated on netweather's LRF page ) How crazy !!! That was updated on the 23rd August, Just how the charts can change so much, The mind boggles ???

When was the LRF page updated

 

They update every Friday on the LRF page

 

So those charts I posted are from yesterday's update

Edited August 31, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Walsall Wood Snow]

If they can change like that at such short time scales then they can hardly be deemed reliable can they? Besides no point getting hung up about what Autumns like. Like Spring I view it simply as a gateway season. Summer and Winter are the true seasons and they can be warm or cold no matter what their respective Spring and Autumns are like. Like this summer was warm but was preceeded by a cold spring.

[Dancerwithwings]

Ok it states that "This long range forecast for the UK is updated once a month" inwhich was the 23rd August so after one week its outdated so what's the point of stating that its updated once a month ..... If you get my Drift

Edited August 31, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[hillbilly]

Ok it states that "This long range forecast for the UK is updated once a month" inwhich was the 23rd August so after one week its outdated so what's the point of stating that its updated once a month ..... If you get my Drift

There is only one forcast that is guaranteed....open your curtains when you get up and look out of the window.....that is the forcast!

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's September forecast

 

Valid from 31/08 to 30/09 2013

Cooler start

Issued: Saturday 31st August 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

A cooler, start to the month, but a fair end

Indications are that after a few very warm days, the beginning of September will be rather cool and mixed. That doesn't mean that it will be a washout by any means, and rainfall totals will be below or around normal for most. By the end of the month there are hints of pressure building again from the south. This may introduced drier weather again later, although temperatures holding at around normal for the time of year.

*......7/9/13*

Temperatures will be rising during the week ahead across much of the country. This could be the final fling of very warm summer temperatures with tops of 28C in southern England. It is likely to be staying largely dry across much of the southern UK too.  Windier conditions in Scotland will be producing some rain at times, mostly in the north and west, although only small amounts falling elsewhere. By Thursday cooler air will have swept southeast through the country, reaching southeast England late in the day. This changes conditions for all, turning cooler with sunny spells and some showers.

*8/9/13 to 14/9/13*

We enter a more mixed period of weather this week. Starting cool with a northerly wind bringing showers to many areas, but most in the east and north. More western and southern areas are likely to be drier as a ridge of high pressure temporarily builds from the west. The general theme through this week will be one of more mixed conditions though. There will be some showers at times, most again through northern and western areas, but some affecting the south and east too. Temperatures probably around or just below normal for the time of year, and breezy at times too.

*15/9/13......21/9/13*

Hints are of an improvement as the week progresses. However, there could be some showery around at first, again most to the north and west. Relatively little rain in more southern areas with some sunshine here. Pressure does look set to build towards the end of the week, this leading to drier conditions spreading further north.

*22/9/13......28/9/13*

 

Confidence in the forecast for this period is lower with conflicting signals from various models. We do think that pressure is likely to be relatively high through the southern two thirds of the UK and Ireland. This leads to drier weather here with sunny spells. However, there is the likelihood that the northern third of the country will be more unsettled with outbreaks of rain at times, and windier weather here. Cool too in northern Scotland.

*29/9/13......5/10/13*

 

Early October may well be more unsettled in the northern half of the UK and Ireland. Breezy with some outbreaks of rain at times. However, the south is likely to be drier with sunny spells, although confidence is low.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20130831

Edited September 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlook have issued there Autumn forecast and they are also going for a slightly warmer than normal one with temperatures close to or slightly above the long term average but a slightly below average November is there prediction

 

Autumn 2013: Mixed, cold later

 

Overview

A mixed season. Early on warm conditions are expected. During the middle of the season the focus is forecast to be on unsettled and possibly stormy weather. Later on increasingly cold conditions could develop in the north and possibly extend south for a time.

 

Temperature

 

Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above the long term average over the three month period.  

Precipitation

Close to or slightly above average.

 

September

 

Temperature: Above average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average 

First half

A generally fine start to the month is expected with temperatures well above the season average, especially in the south. The mostly dry conditions are expected to last through the first week. Through the second week increasingly unsettled weather is expected to return from the west, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all regions. Temperatures becoming close to the average.

Second half

The second half of the month looks like bringing a mixed bag of weather. Some warmer and drier interludes are likely, but also unsettled and windy spells of weather. Overall this period is likely to bring close to average conditions.

 

October

 

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

A reasonable start to the month is expected with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average. Possibly becoming rather warm for a time before the rather settled conditions gradually break and are replaced by increasingly wet and windy weather. Temperatures trending back towards the seasonal average later in the period. 

Second half

Unsettled weather is likely for much of the time during the second half of the month and at times it could become very windy or stormy, especially in the north and west. Southern regions should continue to see drier interludes, but it is expected to be often unsettled. Temperatures mostly close to average.

November

 

Temperature: Slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

A good deal of unsettled and windy weather bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions at times, with the wettest weather likely in central and southern regions. Temperatures should often remain close to the seasonal average in the south, but colder in the north with an increasing risk of frost and sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland.

Second half

Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. Possibly becoming cold in northern regions with a risk of snow. Wintry conditions could extend could extend south for a time with frost becoming widespread. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

Edited September 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Had a little peek into Dec, Oh yes please http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2568&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

[pandit-scholar]

Although I know some things about weather and can read the weather models now, I am still learning! Thus in layman terms what is Lorenzo suggesting for this Autumn and Winter please! Thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

Although I know some things about weather and can read the weather models now, I am still learning! Thus in layman terms what is Lorenzo suggesting for this Autumn and Winter please! Thanks

 

If you can link me to his post please then I will give you an interpretation.

[Dancerwithwings]

Maybe this ? http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/page-98#entry2778611

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe this ? http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/page-98#entry2778611

 

Bloody hell, its technical even by Lorenzo's standards, id better leave it to people who know what there talking about to decipher, its beyond my knowledge, I understand bits of it but am not qualified to pass judgement, worrying what he says about SSW's this winter though.

[Dancerwithwings]

Bloody hell, its technical even by Lorenzo's standards, id better leave it to people who know what there talking about to decipher, its beyond my knowledge, I understand bits of it but am not qualified to pass judgement, worrying what he says about SSW's this winter though.

As soon as i saw Lorenzo's post i started laughing, I thought can't wait to see your view on this one ((((( )))))

Edited September 1, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

Bloody hell, its technical even by Lorenzo's standards, id better leave it to people who know what there talking about to decipher, its beyond my knowledge, I understand bits of it but am not qualified to pass judgement, worrying what he says about SSW's this winter though.

 

The SSW last winter really knackered our spring up this year so I was very pleased to read that bit however an SSW isn't the b all and end all of winter is it? was the bitter spell at the end of 2010 caused by an SSW or was that just luck for coldies with everything falling into place for a month or so before thing improved in January and February?

 

My early winter thought's http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2778785

Edited September 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hello Autumn (pinch, punch...etc), down to 8c last night. Might see 9-10c tonight with a possible drop off towards end of next week again