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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.


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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Another winter like 2009-2010 would be great - a changeable October, a chilly, very wet and stormy November, then cold and snowy from mid-December onwards. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Another winter like 2009-2010 would be great - a changeable October, a chilly, very wet and stormy November, then cold and snowy from mid-December onwards. Posted Image

I remember November 2009 vividly, I remember 14c at 2100, heavy, lashing rain with gales... hard to believe that a month later that happened!

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Is there any such thing as "autumnal weather"? A gale is a gale, snow is snow, frost is frost whatever time of the year occurs. Yes we associate snow and frost with winter but as we have seen this year, it can occur in spring and during past autumns such as 1993.

I'd class severe gales and persistent rain as autumnal weather. They can certainly occur outside autumn, but that's the time of year when they're more likely to occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I'd class severe gales and persistent rain as autumnal weather. They can certainly occur outside autumn, but that's the time of year when they're more likely to occur.

They're seen as autumnal, but here I'd say gales are more of a winter thing than an autumn thing. Persistent light rain is probably most common in November (most rain days), but persistent heavy rain is not common at any time of the year here, and no month here exceeds 60mm on average.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Is there any such thing as "autumnal weather"? A gale is a gale, snow is snow, frost is frost whatever time of the year occurs. Yes we associate snow and frost with winter but as we have seen this year, it can occur in spring and during past autumns such as 1993.

I believe a cold autumn is overdue?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Is there any such thing as "autumnal weather"? A gale is a gale, snow is snow, frost is frost whatever time of the year occurs. Yes we associate snow and frost with winter but as we have seen this year, it can occur in spring and during past autumns such as 1993.

 

We had a lot of settling snow 28 October 2008, I would have that again.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-London

 

A repeat of the London snow 25th Sept 1885 anyone ?

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/68103-earliest-london-snowfall-september-1885/

 

 

When was the last time we had a really cold September ? Where is the jet stream going to go this autumn ?

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

We had a lot of settling snow 28 October 2008, I would have that again.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-London

 

A repeat of the London snow 25th Sept 1885 anyone ?

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/68103-earliest-london-snowfall-september-1885/

 

 

When was the last time we had a really cold September ? Where is the jet stream going to go this autumn ?

last cold September 1986,we had many frosts here but sunny days

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

We had a lot of settling snow 28 October 2008, I would have that again.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-London

 

A repeat of the London snow 25th Sept 1885 anyone ?

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/68103-earliest-london-snowfall-september-1885/

 

 

When was the last time we had a really cold September ? Where is the jet stream going to go this autumn ?

I think September 2000 was pretty shabby?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

All fun and games looking at specifics like that this far out of course, but would you rather tap into a November cold pool, or a January one?  I'd happily take a (not even mild, possibly warm if that were to come off) November if it meant synoptics like that came to fruition in deeper winter! Posted Image

 

Also feb - I think my avatar is prettier than your's! Posted Image

 

 

From your point of view though an upper atmosphere profile of 91 feb or 87 jan in November would mean absolute bedlam in your back yard, think of the 6 foot drifts on the mountains up here and imagine them on the M1!

 

 

Both corkers, I cannot see what your one is as you cannot zoom in but I presume it is 17th of December 2010, I don't remember as neat a snap off of a PV and subsequent shift southwards in my lifetime.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

October 2008 anyone?

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

-8c 850s beakthrough early.

 

 

 

but the best right at the end of Autumn. Nov 2010 anyone?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From your point of view though an upper atmosphere profile of 91 feb or 87 jan in November would mean absolute bedlam in your back yard, think of the 6 foot drifts on the mountains up here and imagine them on the M1!

 

 

Both corkers, I cannot see what your one is as you cannot zoom in but I presume it is 17th of December 2010, I don't remember as neat a snap off of a PV and subsequent shift southwards in my lifetime.

Blimey mate, with all those colours, I thought you were Piers Corbyn!Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Blimey mate, with all those colours, I thought you were Piers Corbyn!Posted Image Posted Image

 

Ive got the same wishes as piers Corbyn, (ie - another ice age!)

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I remember November 2009 vividly, I remember 14c at 2100, heavy, lashing rain with gales... hard to believe that a month later that happened!

 

I certainly am not wishing for a November like 2009 - it saw terrible flooding in the Lake District, the amounts of rain during the 18-19th were record breaking...

 

I always hope for the following pattern of weather during autumn but it rarely turns out like this..

 

September - warm and dry to start with plenty of sunshine, becoming more unsettled mid month with showery rain and before we see the first chill of the season towards the end with light frost followed by the first significant atlantic low of the season - autumn rarely gets its act together until the equinox.

 

 October showery to start with gusty NW airstream before a quieter interlude around the middle of the month with the first air frosts of the season and proper chill in the air, end of the month first proper gales of the season with heavy rain and first snows of the season for the fells, even better if we manage some wet snow at low levels think late October 2008 thanks to the first proper blast of arctic air of the season.

 

November - first half mixed with showery NW airstream and atlantic lows, followed by a build of high pressure over the country bringing foggy cold conditions with frost slow to clear, end of the month first snows of the season thanks to polar northerlies.

 

Sept 2012 fits the bill above.

October 1993 and 2008 fit the bill above.

November 1993 and 2008 fit the bill above. Second half of Nov 2005 was excellent. Second half of Nov 2010 was a bit extreme!

 

My only thought for this autumn is the return of jet on a southerly path, meaning quite a wet season but perhaps some decent drier conditions in northern parts at times with frost in abundance.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

With the likely early pv i suspect that we will see a pretty cool but westerly and damp pattern from mid sep to mid nov.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Ive got the same wishes as piers Corbyn, (ie - another ice age!)

 

Just 50,000 years to go.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not to be taken seriously of course but TWO now have an ulatra long range forecast availabe which goes from 30 days out to 150 days it currenlty goes out to February 1st 2014 and is updated daily data is provided by the Climate Forecast System 2 (CFS2) and its available free here

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

Not to be taken seriously of course but TWO now have an ulatra long range forecast availabe which goes from 30 days out to 150 days it currenlty goes out to February 1st 2014 and is updated daily data is provided by the Climate Forecast System 2 (CFS2) and its available free here

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1

What an utter, utter waste of time

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Not to be taken seriously of course but TWO now have an ulatra long range forecast availabe which goes from 30 days out to 150 days it currenlty goes out to February 1st 2014 and is updated daily data is provided by the Climate Forecast System 2 (CFS2) and its available free here

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1

 

Absolutely pointless Imo

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

What an utter, utter waste of time

 

 

Absolutely pointless Imo

 

Agree with both of you seems pointless to me a week is hard enough to get right so why they've bothered with something upto 4 months away is a bit baffiling

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Brian is probably trying to get one over on netweather and have a USP on the website.

 

Joe public will probably take the forecasts as gospel.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's my final Autumn forecast.

 

 

I used 8 different criteria based on the teleconnections and the trends they've exhibited in recent months, and checked each previous year, back to 1951 (except for sea ice, which only goes back to 1979) to see how many matches each year got with this.

Below are the different criteria used (I can give the exact numerical conditions used if anyone wants them)

 

  • Arctic Oscillation (AO).   Condition - That there was a strong trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Condition - Moderate trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
  • El Nino Souther Oscillation (ENSO).   Condition - A slow trend from a moderately -ve ENSO value in Winter, to weak -ve values in Summer and neutral values in Autumn, based on the ENSO 3.4 region anomaly.
  • Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO).   Condition - From -ve values at the beginning of the year to strong +ve values in Summer
  • Solar Activity, Sunspot Counts. Condition - Mean 11 year monthly sunspot count below 70
  • Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and +0.3
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and -1.5.
  • Sea Ice Area (SIA). Condition - September SIA of less than 4 million km2

 

Of those criteria, 3 years matched 5 of them (2006, 2001 and 1969) and while 4 years matched 4 criteria (2012, 2011, 2008, 2002).

So when creating the composite maps, the years with 5 matches were added twice and the years with 4 matches were added just once. All other years were excluded.

 

 

SEPTEMBER- General Pattern

 

Posted Image

 

September shows strong heights nearby, but centred slightly to our north and east. This would indicate a good deal of settled weather during the month, with more of an easterly flow than usual and a continuation of the +ve or near neutral NAO seen during the summer. The signal for +ve heights isn't very strong though, and so some unsetteld weather should be expected.

 

Temperatures are likely to be above the 81-10 average in most areas. A CET of close to 14.8C is my guess

Rainfall is likely to be close to or slightly below average in general.

 

 

OCTOBER - General Pattern

 

Posted Image

 

 

October shows a good signal for strong heights to our south east, indicating a ridge into central and western Europe. This pattern may result in an increased southerly component to our weather. Conditions will be most settled toward the south east, with increased Atlantic influences further north and west.

 

Temperatures likely to be well above the 81-10 average for all areas in the southerly winds, but more so in the south east. Some very mild or warm conditions could occur. A CET of close to 12C is my guess.

Rainfall is likely to be close to average overall, perhaps slightly below in the south east, and slightly above to the north west.

 

 

NOVEMBER - General Pattern

 

Posted Image

 

Confidence at this range drops significantly. However, current indications are that November may see a change, with a strong signal for low heights to our north and ridging to the south of Greenland, while the Euro ridge weakens further south and east. This indicates that the whole of the British Isles, but especially northern areas, will see spells of unsettled weather from the west and north west. With the strong Atlantic ridge and weakening Euro ridge, parts of western Ireland and south east England may see slightly more settled conditions at times.

 

Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average in most areas, with the greatest chance of above average conditions being in the south east again. A CET of about 7.8C is my guess.

Rainfall is likely to be slightly above average in general, with western Ireland perhaps being below average due to the influence of the Atlantic ridge.

 

 

Autumn Overall.

Best chance of long settled spells in September and October, with the best of these towards the south east. More general unsettled conditions in Autumn.

Temperature wise, a well above average Autumn overall, possibly reaching the top 10 warmest on record.

Rainfall is predicted to be close to, but slightly above average overall. The west of Ireland, being the most likely to see below average rainfall.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Brian is probably trying to get one over on netweather and have a USP on the website.

 

Joe public will probably take the forecasts as gospel.

And then blame the Met Office for getting it wrong even though the forecast is nothing to do with them.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Agree with both of you seems pointless to me a week is hard enough to get right so why they've bothered with something upto 4 months away is a bit baffiling

Just for a bit of fun I presume - if some gullible idiot takes it as a gospel, then that's their issue.

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

i never can understand why people get so worked as someone shows a long range forecast. noones asking anyone to bet their houses on it, and everyone agrees they are pretty much guesswork, but jeez if its certainty that your after then your pretty much in the wrong place. lighten up folks, if you dont like seeing people looking ahead to far, then its really easy to ignore - then you wont get so worked up about it

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