Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[NeilN]

That chart prediction for November, will that be forecast snow?

[feb1991blizzard]

Ooooft! Though that was from the 25th July run.

 

Sorry to go off the autumn topic but you may like the latest Jan forecast pressure anomaly....

 

Jan!.png

 

That's an absolute ripper - remember - that's what you need, a few millibars / decemeters, is not enough of a +ve anomaly to the North as the pressure norm is low in these locations, it needs to be a big anomaly represented by the deep reds and the deep blues to the south but also the deep blues we want near enough also so that PPN hits the North as well, if that chart occurred you can guarantee that there would be a London and South Eastern transport raspberry rippler happening at some point during the month.

 

 

PS, what has happened to the CFS daily?, its not updating.

[MP-R]

In the same way as I love summer weather is summer, I grow to dislike summery weather hanging on into autumn - especially if the weather continues like this in August then summer returns in September, that's juts annoying.

 

I look forward to bright but crisp and fresh days of October, the first gales, then the first frosts and of course the first snow. I love the seasons as they should be so: August sort yourself right out then autumn can be welcomed with open arms. 

[feb1991blizzard]

That chart prediction for November, will that be forecast snow?

 

 

Yes, certainly on higher ground but not exclusively.

[Weather-history]

A September like 1973 would do me fine...

Or September 2006?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yypmf8wiyGk

[summer blizzard]

Signs that September may not be a warm one?

 

As we know the AO this summer has been positive, well while the GFS12z gives the UK warmth it does turn the AO negative which may allow for a cooler evolution...

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Ooooft! Though that was from the 25th July run.

 

Sorry to go off the autumn topic but you may like the latest Jan forecast pressure anomaly....

 

Jan!.png

 

 

It didn't take long for that chart to turn back into Bartlett of the century!

 

 

[Relativistic]

It didn't take long for that chart to turn back into Bartlett of the century!

Hideous.

[Isolated Frost]

I'd be happy for a winter with at least a week of snow lying, and at least 15 snow lying days (the average) here, and plenty of air frosts. If I got anything above 20cm or over 20 snow lying days, I would be pretty pleased- especially if the bulk happen around December.

[Methuselah]

I really wouldn't take what the CFS says as a sign of anything...If it was that good the experts would have picked up on it ages ago...

[feb1991blizzard]

Id take 20cm of level snow as the single biggest fall because I know drifts would be many feet deep around these parts but I wouldn't take 20cm in total, I got more than that easily in total last winter and around 40 days of lying snow and the last bit on the top of the mountains didn't melt until mid April, I am after a biggie, I still don't know where I will be located this winter, I was hoping to go freelance this winter but haven't the funds or time now.

[Isolated Frost]

I think 2008-09 was about average, 09-10 and 10-11 much above (esp 09-10), 11-12 much below and 12-13 just above (thanks to March)

Autumn wise- if we get a warm September, that would be lovely; then October would give us a big northerly with snow in parts of lowland Scotland and NE coasts, and then Nov-Dec will give us a repeat of 2010, before a sunny, warm Jan and Feb slowly melting the snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

2008-9 was a massive disappointment for me, missing out on the mother of all dumpings by 8 miles, 2009-2010 was a corker, both of those would have rivalled 87 and 91 for all time supremacy if I had lived here and not Salford, 2010 Nov and Dec here will be an experience I will never forget but I was gutted about the way the rest of the winter just fizzled out into just about the dyerest second half of a winter in my lifetime, 11-12 was poor but a lot better than most other places, I still saw about 15 or so cm in total in the whole winter, where as some places didn't see a single flake, 2012-2013 was a cracker, loads of separate events, from Jan onwards.

[UV-RAY]

It didn't take long for that chart to turn back into Bartlett of the century!

 

 

The key is trends and not taking  random charts at face value. The trend has remained consistent for months of + height anomalies over Greenland for most of the winter months, off course the trend could soon change to the above, may the lord have mercy on us all!

[cheese]

It didn't take long for that chart to turn back into Bartlett of the century!

 

 

That chart is made by Satan!

[Methuselah]

The key is trends and not taking  random charts at face value. The trend has remained consistent for months of + height anomalies over Greenland for most of the winter months, off course the trend could soon change to the above, may the lord have mercy on us all!

IMO SI, I think that the key to simply ignore it! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

December not to shabby on the latest update....plenty of northern blocking

 

 

February is mouth watering

 

 

and even January isn't THAT bad

 

 

The common theme throughout is northern blocking being quite prevalent. With these charts you don't analyse them every run anyway....you just take key indicators that on average appear as a recurrent theme. At the moment the recurring theme is higher than average pressure from Scandinavia right across to Greenland.

 

Gav P has done a great vid over on t'other side looking at the CFS v2 and how it performed when looking at the upcoming winter in previous years. Well worth a watch and for the naysayers you may be surprised how well, historically, the CFS v2 has done at picking up on the main trends months in advance.

Edited August 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Relativistic]

11-12 was poor but a lot better than most other places, I still saw about 15 or so cm in total in the whole winter, where as some places didn't see a single flake, 2012-2013 was a cracker, loads of separate events, from Jan onwards.

11-12 was a funny one for my location. December was pretty damn mild and so was January for the most part. January however featured a pleasant, frosty, anticyclonic period mid month, and the end of the month saw the ridging from the East start to take place. Bitter easterlies lasted for nearly two weeks into February, bringing a couple of ice days, 6-8" of snow and a low of -12C. It was an odd cold spell because despite temperatures dropping down to and much below -3C there was almost no frost whatsoever!Agree with 2012-13 though, a great one for the frequency of snow. Lying snow in all of December, January, February and March, impressive for these parts, as well falling snow observed in October, December, January, February, March and April.As for the Autumn's preceding them, 2011-12 was pretty horrid with the persistent mildness almost right the way through, and well into Winter. Last Autumn was much better on the other hand with many more frosts, and as mentioned, some falling snow in October. Edited August 18, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[feb1991blizzard]

11-12 was a funny one for my location. December was pretty damn mild and so was January for the most part. January however featured a pleasant, frosty, anticyclonic period mid month, and the end of the month saw the ridging from the East start to take place. Bitter easterlies lasted for nearly two weeks into February, bringing a couple of ice days, 6-8" of snow and a low of -12C. It was an odd cold spell because despite temperatures dropping down to and much below -3C there was almost no frost whatsoever!

Agree with 2012-13 though, a great one for the frequency of snow. Lying snow in all of December, January, February and March, impressive for these parts, as well falling snow observed in October, December, January, February, March and April.

As for the Autumn's preceding them, 2011-12 was pretty horrid with the persistent mildness almost right the way through, and well into Winter. Last Autumn was much better on the other hand with many more frosts, and as mentioned, some falling snow in October.

 

 

Never knew you got that much down there, I got about 3 inches, I take it that was the first Saturday in Feb, Dec was mild overall but saw a good few days of falling snow early in the month and an inch and a half on the 18th Dec I think, around 5 am, some of the heaviest in terms of ferocity and size of flakes that I have ever seen, pity it didn't last very long.

December not to shabby on the latest update....plenty of northern blocking

 

CFS Dec.png

 

February is mouth watering

 

CFS Feb.png

 

and even January isn't THAT bad

 

CFS jan1.png

 

The common theme throughout is northern blocking being quite prevalent. With these charts you don't analyse them every run anyway....you just take key indicators that on average appear as a recurrent theme. At the moment the recurring theme is higher than average pressure from Scandinavia right across to Greenland.

 

Gav P has done a great vid over on t'other side looking at the CFS v2 and how it performed when looking at the upcoming winter in previous years. Well worth a watch and for the naysayers you may be surprised how well, historically, the CFS v2 has done at picking up on the main trends months in advance.

 

Yes, its not worth looking at charts too deeply months away, post was in jest more than anything.

 

I am not too sure about the Jan chart though, only slightly +ve anoms wont do the trick averaged out over the whole month and don't like that mean trough anchored to the South West, Feb chart is an ripper though, for me and you though any low would be great if the Northern flank were to skirt with our region so we are not lacking in PPN, although you might want to play it more safe because of marginality.

Edited August 18, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Isolated Frost]

Got around 1cm on 3 different days in 2011-12, a real shocker of a winter for snow. Cold wise, early Feb was good, at times great- but not the extent of continental Europe and SE England- much of Europe seems to have a good habit of getting a sharp cold blast in February in recent years; hopefully we'll be looking back to the north and north-east this autumn and winter.

 

As long as we get a good few days of late warmth and sunshine, a real atlantic storm, some ground and air frosts and perhaps a good smattering of snow this autumn, I'll be happy; preferable to start reeling the cold in come mid-November.

[Weather-history]

Getting this thread back on track instead of obsessing with a season 3 months away and promoting a much neglected season, that deserves better, my favourite autumn month was October 1995. Warm, dry and sunny at times. It really was a pleasant month.

I didn't like autumn 2000 because by the start of November 2000, I was sick of the rain, there were hardly any dry days between late Seotember and mid December 2000 here.

[feb1991blizzard]

Got around 1cm on 3 different days in 2011-12, a real shocker of a winter for snow. Cold wise, early Feb was good, at times great- but not the extent of continental Europe and SE England- much of Europe seems to have a good habit of getting a sharp cold blast in February in recent years; hopefully we'll be looking back to the north and north-east this autumn and winter.

 

As long as we get a good few days of late warmth and sunshine, a real atlantic storm, some ground and air frosts and perhaps a good smattering of snow this autumn, I'll be happy; preferable to start reeling the cold in come mid-November.

 

 

 

 

Yes, there is something about a continental feed like the ones in 91, 87 and the like that gives me a stonking buzz when they come off but in reality those are rare, once in a generation events and frought with danger in terms of nailing the setup in the first place, that model / MO 30 day forecast collapse inside 24 hours in feb 12 devastated me, I don't know why because it has happened so many times before, I suppose I thought the even larger teapot theory was dead and GP was on board so it came as a real shock to the system.

Edited August 18, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Getting this thread back on track instead of obsessing with a season 3 months away and promoting a much neglected season, that deserves better, my favourite autumn month was October 1995. Warm, dry and sunny at times. It really was a pleasant month.I didn't like autumn 2000 because by the start of November 2000, I was sick of the rain, there were hardly any dry days between late Seotember and mid December 2000 here.

 

Apologies but there isn't a winter thread yet and people do start talking about summer in February.

[damianslaw]

Oh dear this thread is at risk of turning into the winter 13/14 thread. Can we all stick to the topic of Autumn 2013.

 

Out of interest when was the last very wet cold autumn? with at least two cold wet months.. ?

 

Many recent autumns have seen lengthy dry periods with varying degrees of cold and warmth think October 2009 and 2010 for example or mild wet months such as Nov 09. I think 2003 might be the last autumn to feature 2 colder than normal and wetter than normal months in September and October - but unsure. 2000 saw near average temperatures from memory but was definately the last truly wet autumn throughout.

 

1994 might fit the bill - I remember Sept and October being thoroughly wet months and chilly to boot. 1993 was a cold one but not particularly wet from memory. 1992 also probably fits the bill.

 

Perhaps its time for a wet cold one?

[Weather-history]

Oh dear this thread is at risk of turning into the winter 13/14 thread. Can we all stick to the topic of Autumn 2013.Out of interest when was the last very wet cold autumn? with at least two cold wet months.. ?Many recent autumns have seen lengthy dry periods with varying degrees of cold and warmth think October 2009 and 2010 for example or mild wet months such as Nov 09. I think 2003 might be the last autumn to feature 2 colder than normal and wetter than normal months in September and October - but unsure. 2000 saw near average temperatures from memory but was definately the last truly wet autumn throughout.1994 might fit the bill - I remember Sept and October being thoroughly wet months and chilly to boot. 1993 was a cold one but not particularly wet from memory. 1992 also probably fits the bill.Perhaps its time for a wet cold one?

Wasn't it last autumn (2012)? That was wet and both September and October were below 1961-90 averages and wetter than average. Edited August 18, 2013 by Weather-history