Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Summer Sun]

Above average temperatures favored this Autumn from the met office - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2783989

[Relativistic]

A max of 14.1C today with persistent rain, pretty pleased with that! The first real Autumnal spell is here, and it's very welcome. Now bring me some storms!

Edited September 9, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Isolated Frost]

My prediction for October and November- based purely on Arctic Oscillation; I will do a pre-winter forecast for Nov-Jan next month and then a full winter forecast in November.

 

This is just an experiment on the factors of the AO-

Going for a slightly cooler month, especially in the south, and drier, especially across the north during October. Strong GPH block link-up between Atlantic and Arctic, accompanied by Europe troughing- a cooler, drier month with frosts likely.

 

What a month this looks like it could turn out to be! Big +ve anomaly to the north/north-east, and very cold temperatures for Scandi/NE Euro- warmer across much of Europe and UK though with S flow and -ve anomaly to the SW of UK. Definitely interest from me, large cold segment towards Scandi provides encouragement for cold pooling later on.

 

Drier, cooler October, frosts and sunny days. Turning wetter and milder in November, as the continent roars up a beast.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

My prediction for October and November- based purely on Arctic Oscillation; I will do a pre-winter forecast for Nov-Jan next month and then a full winter forecast in November.

 

This is just an experiment on the factors of the AO-

Oct_SLP_1st.pngOct_GPH_1st.pngOct_AIR_TEMP_1st.png

Going for a slightly cooler month, especially in the south, and drier, especially across the north during October. Strong GPH block link-up between Atlantic and Arctic, accompanied by Europe troughing- a cooler, drier month with frosts likely.

 

Nov_GPH_1st.pngNov_SLP_1st.pngNov_AIR_TEMP_1st.png

What a month this looks like it could turn out to be! Big +ve anomaly to the north/north-east, and very cold temperatures for Scandi/NE Euro- warmer across much of Europe and UK though with S flow and -ve anomaly to the SW of UK. Definitely interest from me, large cold segment towards Scandi provides encouragement for cold pooling later on.

 

Drier, cooler October, frosts and sunny days. Turning wetter and milder in November, as the continent roars up a beast.

 

 

 

 

 

November looks a stonker, may I ask what did you composite on to come up with those years?

[Isolated Frost]

November looks a stonker, may I ask what did you composite on to come up with those years?

As I said, it's just an experiment on Arctic Oscillation, I used the composite of neutral August (which has occurred), and neutral September looking likely on the basis of -0.5 > 0.5 as neutral values. If you have a look on the in-depth technical thread, here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/?p=2784257, you can see the September neutral / October +ve composite; which I'm sure you won't mind!

[feb1991blizzard]

As I said, it's just an experiment on Arctic Oscillation, I used the composite of neutral August (which has occurred), and neutral September looking likely on the basis of -0.5 > 0.5 as neutral values. If you have a look on the in-depth technical thread, here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/?p=2784257, you can see the September neutral / October +ve composite; which I'm sure you won't mind!

 

Cheers.

[Weather-history]

Early next week could be our first real taste of something very autumnal. A blustery cool NWly wind and chilly.

[summer blizzard]

Early next week could be our first real taste of something very autumnal. A blustery cool NWly wind and chilly.

 

Last night was very much Autumn, it was cool, a cold breeze and it even smelt like Autumn.

 

I love the seasonal changes.

[laserguy]

Last night was very much Autumn, it was cool, a cold breeze and it even smelt like Autumn.

 

I love the seasonal changes.

 

I love the change to Autumn - it's the change to Spring I can do without. Still, can't have one without t'other, in the midst of life we are in death etc.

[UV-RAY]

Above average temperatures favored this Autumn from the met office - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2783989

Lol, I admire your quest for mild Gavin. It may well be one which bears fruit but just in case may I suggest you invest in one or two wooly jumpers.

[snowponies]

I've never seen so many blackberries! For the past 5 years I've been making blackberry and apple crumbles, recently selling them in local pubs, and this year I've managed to make 6 crumbles with just picking them at a client's driveway.

The horses' coats are no longer looking silky soft and are now looking all fluffy. The ex moorland pony has grown much thicker fur on her legs this autumn, last time she did that was in 2010, whether she's getting prepared for something, who knows.....

Autumn is such a beautiful season and thoroughly looking forward to enjoying it on dartmoor on the back of my horse to watch the gorgeous sunsets that autumn typically throws.

[laserguy]

I've never seen so many blackberries!

 

Me neither - a proper bounty this year. Elderberries are also in great abundance and huge. Best get me skates on to get this year's wine underway. I've a feeling it'll be a vintage year! Got 3 apple trees and two pear trees in me garden but not being a fruit fan, not many gets scoffed. Well not by us anyway; we gather all the windfalls up and take 'em down the fields for the horses, who are always very grateful.

[IanR]

Probably helped by the warm July and August

[damianslaw]

There is meant to be a good crop of apples this year due to the warm dry summer.

 

When it comes to looking for signs autumn is in full swing I always turn my attention to a cluster of trees not too far away from here which always seem to see leaf colour change much earlier than others - and once again they are on the turn with vivid red pigmentation - I'm not too good with trees, but I think they may be horse chestnut, which I believe are usually the first trees to see leaf change colour.

 

I've seen hardly any acorns this year though....

 

Plenty of blackberries, indeed an execeptionally good crop.

 

Now awaiting the first frost of the season to really tinge the leaves into colour.

 

In terms of timing, autumn this year for me feels it has started on a very traditional note with average timing.

[Relativistic]

Innumerable amounts of acorns out the front of our house on the driveway. No signs of Autumn on the leaves yet but it was windy overnight, so while Autumn isn't in full swing yet, it's definitely making the transition.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I have 2 hazel trees in the garden, both full of nuts but when I open them up they're all empty shells. What's happened??

[feb1991blizzard]

People talking about wanting rid of the Scandi trough on the mod, scandi troughing is our only option this early, very unlikely anyway but a direct hit is our only route unless your on the very top of ben nevis.

[Gaz1985]

Heard some people today talk about how there's loads of berries on trees and it means a terribly cold Winter. I'm not sure the quantity of acorns, berries or nuts have anything to do with upcoming weather, can't really see how something like a tree or plant knows what the weather will be like in months ahead.

[Mark Neal.]

Had a cycle earlier around Shotover Country Park, a telling sign Autumn is here. The leaves have begun to change and the fields have that decomposing smell, the crops look good though. Its been a good summer. Autumn gale force winds and deep lows on the way! Atlantic coming back to live? 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Heard some people today talk about how there's loads of berries on trees and it means a terribly cold Winter. I'm not sure the quantity of acorns, berries or nuts have anything to do with upcoming weather, can't really see how something like a tree or plant knows what the weather will be like in months ahead.

 

Nature's reactive, not pro-active. Fruit on trees/bushes means the growing conditions were right at the specific time back in the summer. Simples.....

[Weather-history]

Plenty of blackberries about.

[Methuselah]

Heard some people today talk about how there's loads of berries on trees and it means a terribly cold Winter. I'm not sure the quantity of acorns, berries or nuts have anything to do with upcoming weather, can't really see how something like a tree or plant knows what the weather will be like in months ahead.

Someone said that in 1988! 

[Relativistic]

Plenty of blackberries about.

Yep, tonnes of them. And now ripe acorns are falling off the oak tree out the front of my house. Nights are much cooler now, with a few nights hitting 6C this September, and it has been windier this month. Plenty of Autumnal signs about, just no leaves coming off the trees yet.

[Isolated Frost]

Loved the last few days, with the autumnal storms, and cool, fresh feeling- but want another bit of that warmth next week. Too early for being cold! As soon as we enter October and beyond- bring on that cold!

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure whether this should go on a weather forum or the sports zone, Athers just said its 'bitterly cold',  **** off its not 'bitterly cold', its a few degrees below average, bitterly cold is dec 2010, Jan 87, feb 91, jan 2010, etc etc