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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

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MidAtlanticob Newbie

MidAtlanticob

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think it is slower. In other words, last year has more effect on this year. What the new ice will bring could, and most likely is cumulative. A double whammy if you will...

 

Ice melt must disperse cold pure water that sinks. This sinking cools lower levels. The question is can a sudden melt influence climate on a meso scale. Can refreeze influence real-time weather. I think this year will provide the answer, no doubt.....

 

MAO

 

 

 

 

Arctic ice level is around 60% higher than this time last year. As such this should have less affect this year

Edited by MidAtlanticob
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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

Autumn is my favorite time of year. I have never been to England , but the promise a stormy winter is what a meteorologist desires.Autumn in the mid Atlantic or New England is special . Unlike the old country Summer can be brutal. The three H's are Hot, Hazy, Humid. This year has been 5 degrees below normal. Because the last few summers have been 5 degrees above, its been a relief, Temps are Fahrenheit.I have never been to England so I would ask. Do the trees change to a brilliant orange from green? Do they fall and crunch beneath your feet? Is there frost on the pumpkin?MAO

We need just the right conditions to get a vivid display: plenty of sunshine and a cold snap at the right time. October 2008 was good here.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

The latest thoughts from the met office for the 2nd half of September suggest slightly above average temperatures
 

 

In terms of temperature, the balance of probabilities favours slightly above average conditions.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/?p=2778065

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

The latest thoughts from the met office for the 2nd half of September suggest slightly above average temperatures

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/?p=2778065

Yeah baby, yeah!

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StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted

The latest thoughts from the met office for the 2nd half of September suggest slightly above average temperatures

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/?p=2778065

 I don't think temperatures are of anyone's interest at this time of year; we're not getting intense heat, or cold ... just nice mild days and cooler nights. 

 

The question is the precipitation and it doesn't look like a complete wash out in my opinion but it will become unsettled after next week. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

When is Steve Murr going to start posting?  we need his input more than ever this year as well as chiono's.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

When is Steve Murr going to start posting?  we need his input more than ever this year as well as chiono's.

 

Looking at the models it won't be for a while yet continued warm in the south next week (high 20's easily)

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

Looking at the models it won't be for a while yet continued warm in the south next week (high 20's easily)

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Going of the CFS V2 model around mid November onwards and by the time winter finishes with us Steve could be in the weather equivalent of Betty Ford's clinic.

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

Looking at the models it won't be for a while yet continued warm in the south next week (high 20's easily)

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Will this heat ever stop?!! It's been hot almost everyday down here since the start of July, it can be nice but when it lasts this long it becomes an uncomfortable tedium. It's only a shade under 20C at the moment. Can't wait for some cooler weather.
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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted

When is Steve Murr going to start posting?  we need his input more than ever this year as well as chiono's.

 

Hopefully never again Posted Image Posted Image

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted (edited)

Hopefully never again :rofl:

How do you even know who he is? Anyway, last year's Strat thread started at the end of September as the PV begins in earnest so I expect that's when many of the WInter guys start posting agan. Edited by Yarmy
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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

I've got a bad feeling in my water that even Steve Murr won't have any crumbs of comfort to offer us coldies.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Another increasingly warm to hot week is coming up next week as the summer warmth continues especially in the south

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

By Friday temperatures in the south peak in the high teens instead of the high 20s


Will this heat ever stop?!! It's been hot almost everyday down here since the start of July, it can be nice but when it lasts this long it becomes an uncomfortable tedium. It's only a shade under 20C at the moment. Can't wait for some cooler weather.

 

Looking at GFS this morning another very warm to hot week is coming for the south with temperatures in the high 20's till Thursday

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
  • Author
Posted

Will this heat ever stop?!! It's been hot almost everyday down here since the start of July, it can be nice but when it lasts this long it becomes an uncomfortable tedium. It's only a shade under 20C at the moment. Can't wait for some cooler weather.

Hints that next weekend could be chilly at night.
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

When is Steve Murr going to start posting?  we need his input more than ever this year as well as chiono's.

 

 

When he sees the zero degree isotherm coming over the horizon Posted Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I've got a bad feeling in my water that even Steve Murr won't have any crumbs of comfort to offer us coldies.

 

 

Interesting you should say that, I have had a bad feeling about this winter from xmas last year TBH, my main concerns were ENSO and the qbo but strong Nina doesn't look likely now (I have a phobia of 1989itus), what we should all remember though is that SSW's and above average stratospheric conditions are possible in any year and ithat it will override  any other teleconnection - stay positive.

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Jax Veteran

Jax

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
Posted

we have not reached Autumn yet and all you snow luvvies are onto winter LOL

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Until all the warm air associated with the HP is blown away, and the Azores High retreats to its usual position, we'll stay warm...It's a similar situation to what we had in May; only, then, we were waiting for a cold block to get disrupted.

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laserguy Seasoned

laserguy

Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire
Posted

8c this morning, cooler than recent. Quite cool out there at 16c at the moment, feeling pretty autumnal.

 

My missus is making ominous rumblings of how nippy it feels and asking if please can we have the radiators on?  As usual I told her to stop being so ridiculous and to get some bread an' taties down her neck - no radiators here til mid-Nov earliest!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

My missus is making ominous rumblings of how nippy it feels and asking if please can we have the radiators on?  As usual I told her to stop being so ridiculous and to get some bread an' taties down her neck - no radiators here til mid-Nov earliest!

 

I would ditch her and get a new missus who prefers cold.

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