Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[summer blizzard]

Possibly. Weak El Nino looks the form horse at present but looks to be under or around the +1 mark so how significant it'll be I don't know. Reading his explanation it looks like he's using solar and lunar cycles.

 

Would be interesting if you could drag out the years with a +QBO and a weak Nino Enso state.

 

EDIT: interestingly, just did some reading and it seems Joe D'Alio did some research on this. He found that a weak Nino and a +QBO resulted in an average bias towards a -AO and NAO. This, coupled with the Atlantic tripole signature in May and the bullishness of the long range modelling towards a -AO suggests things may get interesting....maybe.

 

 

I'm not so sure personally. While sub-surface temperatures are warm they have been for the past two years and bar spring 2012 have had no luck in really making their mark at the surface. Couple this with -PDO and i personally put little faith in El Nino conditions or even the positive side of neutral, SOI has also being positive since Feb.

 

Hence despite my prediction some months ago of a weak EL Nino (a flop - see the sea surface temperature anomaly thread) i actually expect us to be on the negative side of neutral. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm not so sure personally. While sub-surface temperatures are warm they have been for the past two years and bar spring 2012 have had no luck in really making their mark at the surface. Couple this with -PDO and i personally put little faith in El Nino conditions or even the positive side of neutral, SOI has also being positive since Feb.

 

Hence despite my prediction some months ago of a weak EL Nino (a flop - see the sea surface temperature anomaly thread) i actually expect us to be on the negative side of neutral. 

 

Yeah, just had another look.....you're correct I think. Either way I think we're looking at a near neutral scenario. One thing that has struck me is the possibility that we may slip back into a -QBO as we progress through autumn and towards winter.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/positive-qbo-may-not-survive-into-winter.html

 

Either way, a -PDO, weak la Nina, Poss? -QBO and the Atlantic tripole are not unfavourable on the face of it? (If you're looking for proper wintry weather).

Edited August 26, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Yeah, just had another look.....you're correct I think. Either way I think we're looking at a near neutral scenario. One thing that has struck me is the possibility that we may slip back into a -QBO as we progress through autumn and towards winter.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/positive-qbo-may-not-survive-into-winter.html

 

Either way, a -PDO, weak la Nina, Poss? -QBO and the Atlantic tripole are not unfavourable on the face of it? (If you're looking for proper wintry weather).

 

 

Looking at historical data this looks near impossible, by definition of the title surely it cant??

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, just had another look.....you're correct I think. Either way I think we're looking at a near neutral scenario. One thing that has struck me is the possibility that we may slip back into a -QBO as we progress through autumn and towards winter.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/positive-qbo-may-not-survive-into-winter.html

 

Either way, a -PDO, weak la Nina, Poss? -QBO and the Atlantic tripole are not unfavourable on the face of it? (If you're looking for proper wintry weather).

 

Now that's a very interesting link and assertion.

 

Traditionally a +QBO tends to have 2 peaks (rather it peaks, stagnates and then peaks again a few months later) so being close to the first peak it would be unprecedented for a +QBO to last less than a year. With that being said the correlations are sound and the SOI and GLAAM are certainly in sync at the moment. I suspect we will probably see a near neutral QBO into winter and spring

 

Not too bad (winter 2012 had that) although a weak EL Nino with that combination would probably be better..

[NorthernRab]

Roger J Smith is going for the mildest winter since 2007-08 and maybe even 2006 - 07 it doesn't mean we won't see any wintery weather but on the whole a fairly mild winter may finally be on the cards after a run of colder ones.

 

He is also going for a rather mild to warm Autumn

 

At this point, the UK climate signal has recently switched from a generally negative (below normal in temperature) trend that was most apparent in March (coldest since 1917) to positive in July (the first month to be in the top 20% since perhaps April 2011). So, will this trend hold for a while? Or will we see a return to the colder climate that had settled in for large parts of the past three years?

 

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

 

.

 

..that's not a trend, it's a spike surely? 

Edited August 26, 2013 by NorthernRab

[chiller]

Regarding Roger J thoughts  - fair play to him for sticking his neck out so early.  He may well be right but I do recall him going for a serious freezing winter I believe the year before last which turned out to be fairly mild on the whole.  It will be interesting to see how things develop...

[Jax]

RJS is normally pretty good on the LRF, if he says mild then I am happy (still getting over last winters leccy bill)

[chiller]

Indeed - I'm sure there will be a few Farmers praying for a milder one.  On the flipside I wonder how long before we see the inevitable headline from the Express 'UK set to perish in killer freeze' !

[Summer Sun]

Indeed - I'm sure there will be a few Farmers praying for a milder one.  On the flipside I wonder how long before we see the inevitable headline from the Express 'UK set to perish in killer freeze' !

 

When they get a quote from James Madden?

[chiller]

When they get a quote from James Madden?

My thoughts exactly  

[Jax]

When they get a quote from James Madden?

 

 

My thoughts exactly

Were all "DOOMED" I tells ye, ""DOOMED!""

 

(yes I miss dads army too)

[Cheshire Freeze]

RE the QBO- Feb1991 you're right it would be unprecedented. However I think a lessening of the + signal over the winter months would be a positive and a great time for it to occur. I think we'll just have to monitor these teleconnections closely over the coming autumn period.

[cheese]

If this winter is mild, I will pay for all us coldies to take a 3-month holiday to somewhere in Sweden. Let the mildies enjoy their dross.

[feb1991blizzard]

RE the QBO- Feb1991 you're right it would be unprecedented. However I think a lessening of the + signal over the winter months would be a positive and a great time for it to occur. I think we'll just have to monitor these teleconnections closely over the coming autumn period.

 

Would a lessening be enough to significantly increase the chances of an SSW occurring as I am led to believe a +QBO significantly lessens the chances.

[Summer Sun]

Would a lessening be enough to significantly increase the chances of an SSW occurring as I am led to believe a +QBO significantly lessens the chances.

 

I still believe to this day that the SSW last winter lead to that exceptionally cold March I hope we don't get a March like that again in a long time as a Gardener it caused me a lot of problems

 

March this year had just ONE day when a temperature of over 10c (11.8c) was recorded here normally we hit the mid to high teens frequently here with the extra day light and occasionally we get a 20c+ (2011 - 21.4c, 2012 - 21.6c)

[feb1991blizzard]

I still believe to this day that the SSW last winter lead to that exceptionally cold March I hope we don't get a March like that again in a long time as a Gardener it caused me a lot of problems

 

March this year had just ONE day when a temperature of over 10c (11.8c) was recorded here normally we hit the mid to high teens frequently here with the extra day light and occasionally we get a 20c+ (2011 - 21.4c, 2012 - 21.6c)

 

I agree that the SSW affected the surface conditions for the following 2 months as it takes a while for any return to normal stratosphere temps to affect surface conditions just as it usually takes time for stratospheric warming to filter downwards, that March was a stonker though, my best March of all time for me, a 24 hour stunning blizzard occurred with massive drifts here.

[DAVID SNOW]

I still believe to this day that the SSW last winter lead to that exceptionally cold March I hope we don't get a March like that again in a long time as a Gardener it caused me a lot of problems

 

March this year had just ONE day when a temperature of over 10c (11.8c) was recorded here normally we hit the mid to high teens frequently here with the extra day light and occasionally we get a 20c+ (2011 - 21.4c, 2012 - 21.6c)

 Yes, so a sudden SSW event will override all other factors and drivers, a forecasters nightmare.

[Gael_Force]

Would a lessening be enough to significantly increase the chances of an SSW occurring as I am led to believe a +QBO significantly lessens the chances.

 

A +QBO and solar minimum is the state most likely not to see a SSW - during solar max, a SSW can occur in either phase of the QBO. Question is, would the current very low cycle max be construed as equivalent to a normal cycle minimum.

 

Have a read of this paper on the subject.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS3883.1

[gareth73]

Just thought I would let you know what I picked up yesterday as I am interested in Canada weather as I go over every year.  Both Environment Canada and the weather USA met office have issued their winter forecast for 2013/14.

 

Below average temperatures are expected with higher than normal snow fall across the USA/Canada.

[DOdo]

Summer 06 was brilliant followed by a mild winter maybe thats why Robert J is speculating a mild winter.May a SSW towards the end of November would put a cat among the pigeons. It s hard enought to forecast the Autumn as it is  without forecasting a winter. My thoughts are a follow on from March. Incidently I am a keen gardener too and March did some serious damage.hope that doesnt happen for a long long time

[Coast]

Both Environment Canada and the weather USA met office have issued their winter forecast for 2013/14.

 

Below average temperatures are expected with higher than normal snow fall across the USA/Canada.

 

Farmers Almanac also going for a very cold Winter in the US:

 

 

The Farmers’ Almanac is generating a tremendous amount of buzz around a “C-O-L-D†winter forecast.  And it’s ratcheting up the hype by forecasting a “Super Storm†for Super Bowl XLVIII at the Meadowlands in New Jersey.  But its forecast is baseless and lacks credibility.

 

The Farmers’ Almanac forecast: “biting, bitterly and piercing†If you believe it, residents of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may want to start stocking up on warm weather gear, snow shovels, and salt right now! The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a “bitterly cold†winter for much of the region. “Yes, the Farmers’ Almanac believes that the “days of shivery†are back,†says the Farmer’s Almanac press release.

 

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/26/the-farmers-almanac-outrageous-forecast-a-stormy-super-bowl-and-frigid-snowy-winter/

[StretfordEnd1996]

Summer 06 was brilliant followed by a mild winter maybe thats why Robert J is speculating a mild winter.May a SSW towards the end of November would put a cat among the pigeons. It s hard enought to forecast the Autumn as it is  without forecasting a winter. My thoughts are a follow on from March. Incidently I am a keen gardener too and March did some serious damage.hope that doesnt happen for a long long time

I don't agree with this at all (regards to Summer 2006) ... purely on the basis that ... I can just go and make a few comments on Winter and say ''Oh yeah well since Summer 2013 was so warm and sunny, it means Winter will be cold and snowy just like what happened 1995-96''!There is simply no justification to it, and I doubt a forecaster like himself would make a prediction so simple and unjustified.Having said that, what RJS has done is basically input an extremely basic theory of 'The next 12 months will be above average in temperatures', That's basic and unjustified and I don't think I agree with this at all. It only takes 5 minutes to select about 20 years, from the last 100 years, and we quickly realise it is no where near as simple as that. We don't get long periods of above/below average temperatures, it just doesn't work that way! Anything is possible though of course and as I said I respect all the time and effort he has but in making those comments about next Winter. 

 

Anyway, since this is an Autumn thread ...shall we have some discussion about it?!September does look to be getting off to a real contrast to the September of last year; September 12' bought a beautiful pleasant first 2 weeks. This time round though it looks much more seasonable and dull, perhaps not too much persistent heavy rain but a lot of overcast and little sun. I've seen many comments on Summer returning before September closes up though, and of course, as many will know October has always given us nice pleasant periods too (2011, 1995). No idea about November yet, although I do get the slight consensus that it will be a typical seasonal mixed and varied; active month. 

[Yarmy]

RJS is normally pretty good on the LRF, if he says mild then I am happy (still getting over last winters leccy bill)

 

The most recent I could find was this (posted in the middle of October 2011)

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71247-roger-smiths-winter-2011-12-forecast/

 

"For reference, CET monthly temperatures are predicted at 5.8 for November, 4.5 for December, 1.5 for January, 6.2 for February, and 6.5 for March"

 

Actual CET: November 9.6; December 6.0; January 5.4; February 3.8; March 8.3.

 

Now, I'm not going to criticise anyone for having a go at an LRF but that's a massive bust by anyone's measure. If anyone could do LRF'ing to even a rough degree of accuracy (especially for a country the size of Britain) they would be wealthy indeed.

 

I think it's probably possible to make some very low resolution broad predictions such as "Northern blocking is favoured" or something like that, and certainly ENSO conditions can be estimated and its global impact surmised. But beyond that the problem is intractable at this range and probably always will be.

 

It's still a bit of fun though, so I predict Autumn and Winter will be, er, average.

[Summer Sun]

The most recent I could find was this (posted in the middle of October 2011)

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71247-roger-smiths-winter-2011-12-forecast/

 

"For reference, CET monthly temperatures are predicted at 5.8 for November, 4.5 for December, 1.5 for January, 6.2 for February, and 6.5 for March"

 

Actual CET: November 9.6; December 6.0; January 5.4; February 3.8; March 8.3.

 

Now, I'm not going to criticise anyone for having a go at an LRF but that's a massive bust by anyone's measure. If anyone could do LRF'ing to even a rough degree of accuracy (especially for a country the size of Britain) they would be wealthy indeed.

 

I think it's probably possible to make some very low resolution broad predictions such as "Northern blocking is favoured" or something like that, and certainly ENSO conditions can be estimated and its global impact surmised. But beyond that the problem is intractable at this range and probably always will be.

 

It's still a bit of fun though, so I predict Autumn and Winter will be, er, average.

 

He's done pretty well for this summer though with the exception of June

 

I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals

 

June came in at 13.6 -0.6c below average

 

July came in at 18.3 +2.3c above average

 

And August is running at 17.1c currently which is 1.2c above average

 

His overall headline for this sunner was warm, dry, sunny with brief interruptions - that's pretty much what its been for many

[Cheshire Freeze]

He's done pretty well for this summer though with the exception of June

 

I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals

 

June came in at 13.6 -0.6c below average

 

July came in at 18.3 +2.3c above average

 

And August is running at 17.1c currently which is 1.2c above average

 

His overall headline for this sunner was warm, dry, sunny with brief interruptions - that's pretty much what its been for many

 

But it was also pretty obvious how this summer would pan out IMO. I even managed to pinpoint when the less settled spell would occur i.e end of July/beginning of August.......and I don't claim to be an expert at constructing an LRF. I know you saw my posts RE this summer Gavin as you liked a lot of the ones where I was suggesting a good one and that '2/3rds of the summer would be very useable'.

 

Anyhoo the law of probabilities suggested this summer wouldn't be a baddun and I'm sure the law of probabilities also favours a mild winter. As ever we'll just have to wait and see.

Edited August 27, 2013 by CreweCold