Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[summer blizzard]

Here's my final Autumn forecast.

 

 

I used 8 different criteria based on the teleconnections and the trends they've exhibited in recent months, and checked each previous year, back to 1951 (except for sea ice, which only goes back to 1979) to see how many matches each year got with this.

Below are the different criteria used (I can give the exact numerical conditions used if anyone wants them)

 

• Arctic Oscillation (AO).   Condition - That there was a strong trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Condition - Moderate trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
• El Nino Souther Oscillation (ENSO).   Condition - A slow trend from a moderately -ve ENSO value in Winter, to weak -ve values in Summer and neutral values in Autumn, based on the ENSO 3.4 region anomaly.
• Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO).   Condition - From -ve values at the beginning of the year to strong +ve values in Summer
• Solar Activity, Sunspot Counts. Condition - Mean 11 year monthly sunspot count below 70
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and +0.3
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and -1.5.
• Sea Ice Area (SIA). Condition - September SIA of less than 4 million km2

 

Of those criteria, 3 years matched 5 of them (2006, 2001 and 1969) and while 4 years matched 4 criteria (2012, 2011, 2008, 2002).

So when creating the composite maps, the years with 5 matches were added twice and the years with 4 matches were added just once. All other years were excluded.

 

 

SEPTEMBER- General Pattern

 

 

September shows strong heights nearby, but centred slightly to our north and east. This would indicate a good deal of settled weather during the month, with more of an easterly flow than usual and a continuation of the +ve or near neutral NAO seen during the summer. The signal for +ve heights isn't very strong though, and so some unsetteld weather should be expected.

 

Temperatures are likely to be above the 81-10 average in most areas. A CET of close to 14.8C is my guess

Rainfall is likely to be close to or slightly below average in general.

 

 

OCTOBER - General Pattern

 

 

 

October shows a good signal for strong heights to our south east, indicating a ridge into central and western Europe. This pattern may result in an increased southerly component to our weather. Conditions will be most settled toward the south east, with increased Atlantic influences further north and west.

 

Temperatures likely to be well above the 81-10 average for all areas in the southerly winds, but more so in the south east. Some very mild or warm conditions could occur. A CET of close to 12C is my guess.

Rainfall is likely to be close to average overall, perhaps slightly below in the south east, and slightly above to the north west.

 

 

NOVEMBER - General Pattern

 

 

Confidence at this range drops significantly. However, current indications are that November may see a change, with a strong signal for low heights to our north and ridging to the south of Greenland, while the Euro ridge weakens further south and east. This indicates that the whole of the British Isles, but especially northern areas, will see spells of unsettled weather from the west and north west. With the strong Atlantic ridge and weakening Euro ridge, parts of western Ireland and south east England may see slightly more settled conditions at times.

 

Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average in most areas, with the greatest chance of above average conditions being in the south east again. A CET of about 7.8C is my guess.

Rainfall is likely to be slightly above average in general, with western Ireland perhaps being below average due to the influence of the Atlantic ridge.

 

 

Autumn Overall.

Best chance of long settled spells in September and October, with the best of these towards the south east. More general unsettled conditions in Autumn.

Temperature wise, a well above average Autumn overall, possibly reaching the top 10 warmest on record.

Rainfall is predicted to be close to, but slightly above average overall. The west of Ireland, being the most likely to see below average rainfall.

 

Interesting forecast. My only comment really is that i question whether nino 3.4 values are the best to use. MEI and SOI values point negative.

[ARW WeatherMan]

Oooo I'm actually quite excited for all that winter feeling this year, the last few years I've had to walk to and from school, town, shops etc in the freezing cold and wearing a stupid amount of heavy clothing, this year I will have a car by November and so as long as the cold holds off until then I should have a more pleasurable winter! I love snow, ice etc etc I just can't stand that horrible numbing cold in your extremities! I have sweaty hands and feet almost continually through genetics and that means unless my body is very cold then I will have a hot body and sweaty hands then exposed to a freezing air... not good!

This year I can go from a cosy, heat blanketed bed then into a nice and 20 minutes warmed up car with heated seats (going to buy some that plug into the lighter socket) and then into a nice and warm classroom.. That's the plan anyway haha 

I do love a change in weather and season though just as long as we don't get endless rain and mildness!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Oooo I'm actually quite excited for all that winter feeling this year, the last few years I've had to walk to and from school, town, shops etc in the freezing cold and wearing a stupid amount of heavy clothing, this year I will have a car by November and so as long as the cold holds off until then I should have a more pleasurable winter! I love snow, ice etc etc I just can't stand that horrible numbing cold in your extremities! I have sweaty hands and feet almost continually through genetics and that means unless my body is very cold then I will have a hot body and sweaty hands then exposed to a freezing air... not good!

This year I can go from a cosy, heat blanketed bed then into a nice and 20 minutes warmed up car with heated seats (going to buy some that plug into the lighter socket) and then into a nice and warm classroom.. That's the plan anyway haha 

I do love a change in weather and season though just as long as we don't get endless rain and mildness!

 

 

 "car for sale"   good runner, low mileage, body work ok, previous owner a little on the sweaty side,

[ARW WeatherMan]

 "car for sale"   good runner, low mileage, body work ok, previous owner a little on the sweaty side,

 

I'm not like freakishly sweaty hahahaha!

[feb1991blizzard]

November a ripper perhaps!

 

 

 

[Iceni]

I certainly am not wishing for a November like 2009 - it saw terrible flooding in the Lake District, the amounts of rain during the 18-19th were record breaking...

 

I always hope for the following pattern of weather during autumn but it rarely turns out like this..

 

September - warm and dry to start with plenty of sunshine, becoming more unsettled mid month with showery rain and before we see the first chill of the season towards the end with light frost followed by the first significant atlantic low of the season - autumn rarely gets its act together until the equinox.

 

 October showery to start with gusty NW airstream before a quieter interlude around the middle of the month with the first air frosts of the season and proper chill in the air, end of the month first proper gales of the season with heavy rain and first snows of the season for the fells, even better if we manage some wet snow at low levels think late October 2008 thanks to the first proper blast of arctic air of the season.

 

November - first half mixed with showery NW airstream and atlantic lows, followed by a build of high pressure over the country bringing foggy cold conditions with frost slow to clear, end of the month first snows of the season thanks to polar northerlies.

 

Sept 2012 fits the bill above.

October 1993 and 2008 fit the bill above.

November 1993 and 2008 fit the bill above. Second half of Nov 2005 was excellent. Second half of Nov 2010 was a bit extreme!

 

My only thought for this autumn is the return of jet on a southerly path, meaning quite a wet season but perhaps some decent drier conditions in northern parts at times with frost in abundance.

 

 

That fits in with this chap's forecast - he uses medieval saints' days and records kept by monks, like St Swithin's Day, but more complicated. He also goes by natural signs, like teasels (which have been mega this year - never seen so many). I know I sound like a New Age hippy, but he's a retired policeman and has an 85% success rate.

 

“Dear Sirs,†David King wrote to the Buckingham Palace committee before the Diamond Jubilee river pageant. “Without wishing to be alarmist . . .†and he proceeded to outline his fears of a wet and windy washout.

He had read the Moon charts, studied the tides and charted the direction of the wind on the equinox. And he felt obliged to warn Her Majesty to brace oneself.

 

 

Dave King's forecast on July 13th:

 

July The high temperatures will drop next week, returning for a long, hot spell at the end of the month

August Mainly warm, with thunderstorms

September Mild, damp, with frequent rain showers

October Extremely cold, frosty, clear and dry. A few sunny days around the 18th

November Generally cold, with easterly winds, a few warmer days

December No snow until Boxing Day. Combination of frosts and occasionally snowy days will keep things icy till Easter

Edited August 22, 2013 by Iceni

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting forecast. My only comment really is that i question whether nino 3.4 values are the best to use. MEI and SOI values point negative.

 

What do you mean by "point negative"?

Most indicators are suggesting a change toward the +ve side of neutral during the Autumn and Winter. To me it's that trend that matters.

 

  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[weatherguy]

From your point of view though an upper atmosphere profile of 91 feb or 87 jan in November would mean absolute bedlam in your back yard, think of the 6 foot drifts on the mountains up here and imagine them on the M1!

 

 

Both corkers, I cannot see what your one is as you cannot zoom in but I presume it is 17th of December 2010, I don't remember as neat a snap off of a PV and subsequent shift southwards in my lifetime.

 

Hehe, one can dream...I'll be moving up to Sheffield though towards the end of October, what are the odds on a major LP system slipping under a major block to our NE this winter, with the snow not reaching further north than the Birmingham?  

 

And indeed, I can't remember the exact date but it is December 2010 Frightening temperatures near here, -16C recorded not too far away!

 

I'm also hoping for a nice warm and settled September (as looks likely), as I fancy eeking out as long a cricket season as possible.

Edited August 23, 2013 by weatherguy

[NeilN]

I am thinking to myself, if we get a warm October will this rival 1985/2011?

[Summer Sun]

Netweather have released there Autumn forecast also in there is a sneaky peak at December

 

September

 

The start of Autumn is currently expected to be a fairly benign one with plenty of settled weather on offer. The pressure map below gives a good indication as to why, with pressure generally a little higher than average across the UK, but not significantly so and as is often the case the northwest of Britain is likely to see more in the way of unsettled weather than regions further south and east. Overall temperatures are expecting to be close to or above average, with a generally drier than average month likely - abeit with some local exceptions possible.

 

October

Into October, the forecasting model is again showing a month with higher than average pressure across much of the British Isles, but with some subtle changes to the pattern. These changes suggest that temperatures will fall away from the warmer than average months we've seen of late to be below average in many regions. Rainfall is again expected to be below normal levels for the majority.

 

November

As we close out Autumn and move into November confidence in the forecast at this range does really start to fall away but at this stage with a strong high pressure anomaly to the north of the UK being shown this would point toward a cooler/colder than average month with rainfall levels generally ranging from close to average in the south to below average further north. Lots of uncertainty at this range though, but the pattern for high pressure to the north of the UK (northern blocking) is something to watch and is a pattern the model is keen to continue into the winter months

 

A glance at Winter

Obviously we're some way off from winter at this stage with plenty of time for change but the CFS2 model we use is currently giving an ongoing strong signal for northern blocking to be prominent this winter, meaning another cold winter season is a possibility - it must be stressed that it's all very low confidence at this range though..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[EML Network]

Woo-Hoo. 

 

Back to the Netweather forum after my Spring and Summer hibernation can only mean one thing....Autumn (and later);  Winter  is approaching :-)

 

Nice to be back here again. 

 

My own ''THOUGHTS'' about this Autumn is that we are going to see a period of weather that, similar to March and in my opinion ...we are long overdue.

 

That is to say that we were long overdue a cold March and in the same way that we got an extreme cold March, I believe we are long overdue a stormy Autumn

 

So at some point during the 3 month period I believe we are going to see a real humdinger of a storm. or even a series of storms and extended periods of high winds and large rainfall totals. 

 

As for Winter , I can't see it being a cold one this time out at this stage anyway. 

 

There's my pennies worth , I won't back it up with data because I don't draw my conclusions based on data, I do it based on 30 years of watching general patterns and having a pretty good sense of how things feel. 

Edited August 23, 2013 by EML Network

[Jax]

Do not want storms. Fence is still knackered from the spring and winter ones.

[Methuselah]

My heart's desire would be for a continuation of the current warmth well into October...Based, of course, on the fact that a warmer-than-usual North Sea ought to deliver some tasty convective snowfall if and when the Beast From The East arrives... 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the netweather extra maps for September it looks like another fairly quite month with high pressure sitting in the Atlantic and drifting over the UK

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

The last thing I want is a warm September, I desperately need some prolonged cooler weather. The last time I had a single figure minimum, according to my records, was the 26th of June and the windows have been open virtually for that whole duration. It's just so damn stuffy all the time.

[Summer Sun]

The last thing I want is a warm September, I desperately need some prolonged cooler weather. The last time I had a single figure minimum, according to my records, was the 26th of June and the windows have been open virtually for that whole duration. It's just so damn stuffy all the time.

 

September is looking fairly average at this stage so there is every chance the warm will prolong into September which I'm sure will please many

 

[Tornandfrayed]

I am hoping for a largely dry, warm and sunny Setpember which carries into October then as October fades, some real autumnal weather, frosty lots of leaves crisp underfoot, clear skies for the fireworks of course!  After tha,t bring on the serious cold, with lots of snow and sub zero temperatures.  Classic seasons weatherwise are the best, and we have had a classic summer so onwards! 

[cheese]

Do not want storms. Fence is still knackered from the spring and winter ones.

Mine isn't, so bring on the storms.

[Summer Sun]

Do not want storms. Fence is still knackered from the spring and winter ones.

 

Fully agree I've had enough fence damage over the year from storms the lack of Atlantic storms this year has been a huge bonus and long may it continue

[cheese]

Fully agree I've had enough fence damage over the year from storms the lack of Atlantic storms this year has been a huge bonus and long may it continue

Do you like any weather that isn't warm and sunny?

[laserguy]

Mine isn't, so bring on the storms.

 

Ye - let's hope that when this mind-numbingly boring run of weather finally comes to an end, it does so in the most conclusive and spectacular manner and that all memories of this grim summer are extinguished.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep, a lovely warm September for me please. Any low pressure is only going to bring stuck in the middle crap of 14c and rain. Will please barely anyone. Only come November when any cold may bring snow would that be of preference to me. I only like the cold when there is snow about. Makes it more interesting. Cold on its own is just horrible and you end spending ages in stuffy rooms. When I was younger I didnt mind more cold and snow but now I am living a very busy lifestyle, I much prefer warmer, sunnier conditions.

Edited August 25, 2013 by Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

Yep, a lovely warm September for me please. Any low pressure is only going to bring stuck in the middle crap of 14c and rain. Will please barely anyone. Only come November when any cold may bring snow would that be of preference to me. I only like the cold when there is snow about. Makes it more interesting. Cold on its own is just horrible and you end spending ages in stuffy rooms.

 

Yep tonight's ECM looks fine with the deeps low's over Greenland and Iceland out the way after a 2 day blip the warm air returns as well

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM is very keen to extend the summer warmth into September this evening

 

 

Lovely jubbly