Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Sleep on your covers, just use a price of card to fan you when you go to sleep and you should without cover cool naturally overnight.

 

I do sleep on my covers and we have a fan on the go in the room for an hour before going to bed.

 

I fall asleep, but then wake up all sweaty and horrible.

 

Down sarf the nights are just too warm at the moment!

[Seasonal Trim]

Another day closer!

 

Ended up having to sleep on the couch last night as the bedroom was just too warm and I was covered in sweat!

 

This heat is really doing my head in now! It is too hot to do anything, and people who moan about being cold in winter...........stick a jumper on! On the flipside, if I am too hot and am wearing only my pants exactly what else can I do!!

 

Rant over

Had to do the same last night, only my couch is leather which is just a whole new problem in this heat! Just received my Air Cooler which I ordered 2 days ago, hopefully it will do the trick.

 

Come back Autumn/Winter, we miss you!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Had to do the same last night, only my couch is leather which is just a whole new problem in this heat! Just received my Air Cooler which I ordered 2 days ago, hopefully it will do the trick.

 

Come back Autumn/Winter, we miss you!

 

So is mine!

 

I put a sheet over the top.........otherwise I may have been peeling myself off it this morning!

 

I miss having the temp hovering at 17-18c in my living room

[Seasonal Trim]

So is mine!I put a sheet over the top.........otherwise I may have been peeling myself off it this morning!I miss having the temp hovering at 17-18c in my living room

I did have a sheet, but true to my name I'm a twister in bed so it didn't last long.

[hillbilly]

there are many things to do to stay cool mor those that melt,just google it!or buy a fan,big blocks of ice,wet a sheet,have a cold shower .If all else fails get an air conditioning unit,it will solve all your problems

[Eugene]

Yes in the morning you can definitely notice the later sunrise times in the evening though you can hardly notice earlier sunsets, mornings get darker more than sunsets but from about now sunset times will start to pick up in getting earlier.

[laserguy]

there are many things to do to stay cool mor those that melt,just google it!or buy a fan,big blocks of ice,wet a sheet,have a cold shower .If all else fails get an air conditioning unit,it will solve all your problems

 

That doesn't work,at work - which is where I'm headed right now! Pity me....  And if summer becomes no more than an excercise in preventing one's self from dying of heatstroke then it's a pretty poor state of affairs. 

[Tony27]

Yes in the morning you can definitely notice the later sunrise times in the evening though you can hardly notice earlier sunsets, mornings get darker more than sunsets but from about now sunset times will start to pick up in getting earlier.

really? how many people wake up at 5am which is about the sunrise time now, i won;t notice the darker mornings till about september 

[Cheshire Freeze]

really? how many people wake up at 5am which is about the sunrise time now, i won;t notice the darker mornings till about september 

 

I'm up at 5am for work. When I get up, it's noticeably darker than a month ago. I thought about it this morning in fact.

 

Sunrise a month ago- 4.42

 

Now- 5.08

 

26 minutes difference as of now.

 

The loss from the evenings really accelerates over the next week; we'll lose 18 minutes between now and month's end.

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[NUT]

Beginning to notice even here the nights starting to draw in it slow but definitely noticeable

[BornFromTheVoid]

Putting together an early Autumn forecast based on previous analogous years, similar to what I did back in May for this summer, which has turned out very well so far.

 

At the moment, less than half way through, a signal for a well above average start to Autumn is emerging...

[Polar Maritime]

Putting together an early Autumn forecast based on previous analogous years, similar to what I did back in May for this summer, which has turned out very well so far.

 

At the moment, less than half way through, a signal for a well above average start to Autumn is emerging...

 

Temps or Rainfall BFTV ?

 

Thanks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Temps or Rainfall BFTV ?

 

Thanks.

 

Sorry, that's temps! Slightly below average rainfall...

[Tony27]

I'm up at 5am for work. When I get up, it's noticeably darker than a month ago. I thought about it this morning in fact.

 

Sunrise a month ago- 4.42

 

Now- 5.08

 

26 minutes difference as of now.

 

The loss from the evenings really accelerates over the next week; we'll lose 18 minutes between now and month's end.

yeah ok i was talking about the majority of people, anyway 26 minutes is nothing really, its not until late august that the days feel a lot shorter to me, august sitll has plenty of daylight anyway, it gets dark here now at about 9:45 instead of 10pm big wow and we are about a month past the longest day

 

don't forget it is always light about 20-30mins before and after sunrise sunset too, i do like the long dark nights in winter but i don't start getting excited about a few minutes differance in july

Edited July 19, 2013 by Tony27

[Weather-history]

It's during August when you really notice sunset getting earlier and earlier. At the start of month it's 9 o'clock by the end of the month its 8 o'clock.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Weather-history

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Evening all, time to return to NW after the my 'summer recess'. There'll be a sniff of Autumn in the air soon....!!

[laserguy]

really? how many people wake up at 5am which is about the sunrise time now, i won;t notice the darker mornings till about september 

 

One way or another I'm always up at 5am - be it finishing nights or starting days, and at weekends being up and about 'cos I get my sleep in fitful stages and I awake at the first hint of light. Take it from me - the morning light is on its way out. Fantastic!

[CongletonHeat]

Hopefully it's red hot for as long as possible.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn's here already if you know where to look.

Took a slow bike ride with my daughters earlier today, holly bushes are heaving with green berries, 'Lords & Ladies' are just popping their heads up on the grass verges. Blackberries, hawberries and sloes are there already (albeit still green) and conkers are fattening by the day. My cherry trees have been plundered and our 16 Housemartin nests are full to bursting with young 'uns keen to stretch their wings before they head South. Barley and wheat fields are a beautiful golden colour, with a far far better crop than last year.

Keep looking, you'll find it !!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I decided to use the analogous years to create a simple Autumn (SON) forecast, in the same vein as the summer forecast seen here, which appeared to capture the overall pattern so far this summer very well.

 

As it is quite rudimentary, it will once again, just be looking at the months general pattern, without mention of specific weeks or events. This time, I will though, try to include the rainfall and temperature elements also.

 

Anyway, this time around, I used 9 different criteria in order to find years common to this so far, these were.

 

• An AO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer
• A NAO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer
• ENSO values (based of the Nino 3.4 region) that were close to neutral at Summer's end and into Autumn
• Northern hemisphere snow cover below average in August, slightly average in September and slightly above average in October.
• QBO that started out the year -ve but has risen to strong +ve values in Summer
• Years with an 11 year mean sunspot count below 70
• An AMO that averaged between 0 and 0.25 for the first 6 months of the year
• A PDO that has averaged between 0 and -0.5 for the first 6 months of the year
• Years with September sea ice area below 4 million km2.

These are the number of matched criteria at the top, and the years in the columns.

 

 

Just like for the summer forecast, 2006 had the most matches, though only 7 this time compared to 8 in summer.

 

For the forecast, I'll be using the 5, 6 and 7 matches and assigning a weighting to them in the NCEP reanalysis charts. So the years with five matches will be included in the composite maps once, 6 matches included twice and 7 matches included 3 times.

 

Here are the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly charts, which are a good indicator of where we'll see the ridges and troughs (which, to a degree, indicate high and low pressure areas also).

 

..................September .................. .......................... October .............................. ..................... November

 

.............Autumn Overall

 

Below are the temperature anomalies

 

.....................September ......................... ................... October ...................... ....................... November

 

Autumn Temperature Anomaly

 

Below are the precipitation anomalies

 

 ..................... September .................... ..................... October ........................ ..................... November

 

Autumn precipitation anomaly

 

 

So for the forecast.

 

September

A Euro high is likely to be a strong feature of the month. This may bring largely settled weather, with well above average temperatures and below average rainfall across much of England. The further north and west you get, the more likely you to see depressions bringing spells of rain and keeping temperatures close to or slightly above average, similar with rainfall.

 

October

October is likely to see an increased high pressure influence across the British Isles, producing spells of settled weather during month with below average rainfall and above average temperatures for most.

 

November

This month sees a change with a large trough centred towards the north of the British Isles and a strong ridge in the Atlantic. This may bring depressions down from the north west, impacting northern areas the most. The weakened Euro high may still influence the south east a little, with temperatures slightly above average here. The mid-Atlantic ridge may exert a slight influence on western Ireland also, reducing the rainfall anomalies here. Otherwise temperatures are likely to be close to average and rainfall above average.

 

Overall

Temperatures well above average towards the south east with below average rainfall. Elsewhere close to or slightly above average temperatures and rainfall, with western Ireland having slightly below average rainfall.

Edited July 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[summer blizzard]

Should the PDO not be -0.5?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Should the PDO not be -0.5?

 

You're right, typo!

[summer blizzard]

You're right, typo!

 

Just out of interest how would it look if you used spring snowcover instead of last Autumn.

[Buzzit]

Since my summer forecast is going well here is my Autumn forecast - no Autumn until second half October at which point we will get a drastic swing to extremely wet with flooding, windy, and cold throughout all points of the UK, which will last through to end of November with snow in the UK well before Christmas (mid December).

 

BFTV - Your analogues are highly appreciated for my own workings.

Edited July 23, 2013 by Buzzit

[Eugene]

Really looking forward to autumn and the variety it brings, October is great for variation, I find months that can offer winter and summer much more interesting than any other and I also like the more equal daylight nighttime lengths.