Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Weather-history]

If some are wondering why I have started an autumn thread now, I point out that the summer 2013 thread was started on the 4th of April, when we were still freezing and spring hadn't even started.

Autumn tends to be a forgotten season, people tend to look at prospects of the following winter instead.

You can get some lovely warm later summer weather well into October. I do like October sunny warm weather.

What are the prospects for Autumn 2013? Dry? Wet? Stormy? Cold?

[hillbilly]

I would like to enjoy some summer first,surely you are having a laugh!!!!!!!!!!!

[NeilN]

I think this will be the year of Indian summer. Come November, things will be nasty and miserable imo,

[laserguy]

If some are wondering why I have started an autumn thread now....

 

Not much to say this far out, except thanks for starting this and allowing me to see a chink of light at the end of this ghastly season called 'summer'. Really,really,really cannot wait to see the back of it and the first embryonic signs of the turn of the seasons.

[Costa Del Fal]

I think it will be sunny and hot and a continuation if summer until November 30th. Winter looks exceptionally mild too...

[March Blizzard]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that the second half of the year will be warmer than average, the opposite of the first 6 months. I'm guessing Sept thru Nov will be largely warm/mild with above average rainfall and little in the way of cool/cold interludes.

[cheese]

I would like to enjoy some summer first,surely you are having a laugh!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a weather forum, isn't it? Speculation of the following season is perfectly reasonable and interesting - it doesn't equate to people not enjoying the weather they have right now. 

Edited July 4, 2013 by cheese

[Methuselah]

Sorry, I haven't a clue! 

[MP-R]

No idea this far out but a seasonal progression would be nice.

September: heatwave earlier in the month with 26-30C then generally fine late summer/early autumn warmth with 18-22C, the first chilly nights towards the end of the month

October: more changeable but still warmish before the Atlantic starts to dominate towards the end of the month

November: very unsettled and Atlantic-dominated with frequent spells of rPm and Pm, the first cold incursion arriving in the final third of the month

[picog]

Well the CFSv2 is predicting a dry October, but it's looking pretty wet in December (I know that's not autumn). Temperatures are average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.html

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gavin P put together a good presentation over on TWO RE the coming autumn. Looked to be suggestion of a mellow autumn i.e frost and fog common towards Oct and Nov. He also warned of the suggestion of a severe -NAO winter which could possibly follow.

[Jax]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that the second half of the year will be warmer than average, the opposite of the first 6 months. I'm guessing Sept thru Nov will be largely warm/mild with above average rainfall and little in the way of cool/cold interludes.

apart from the rainfall I hope your right

 

(also not sure I can afford another long drawn out follow up winter like the last one either)

[summer blizzard]

Very experimental but using the method i used for summer i get...

 

September: 13.2C-14.9C

October: 10.5C-11.9C

November: 6.9C-7.7C

 

And because we all want to know...

 

December: 4.3C-5.4C

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS prediction for Dec....off the scale -NAO

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

apart from the rainfall I hope your right

 

(also not sure I can afford another long drawn out follow up winter like the last one either)

 

Last winter wasn't long and drawn out. It just overlapped into spring. December wasn't that cold and neither was January really. I'd settle with a severe December and January this year with a warm up later in Feb and into March. Cold and snow is much better around the winter solstice IMO as it easily sticks around, unlike into Feb.

 

I loved the late Nov/Dec cold of 2010. Really festive.

 

The early Jan cold of 2010 was also awesome. The depth of the cold was unreal.

Edited July 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[Evening thunder]

yeah I think similar of last winter, even March doesn't have a patch on December 2010 here! even if using a relative comparison to the averages. January 2010 and perhaps a couple other spells also easily beat what I saw in March. Kind of rubbed in missing the only truely snowy week at my uni due to a field trip to Spain.. Oh well.

 

If that December mean anomaly chart comes off, it would make winter more worth it compared to the average winter for me!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not autumn strictly but here is a plethora of charts I've saved from the CFS over the last 2 months depicting the same -NAO pattern

 

[hillbilly]

Last winter wasn't long and drawn out. It just overlapped into spring. December wasn't that cold and neither was January really. I'd settle with a severe December and January this year with a warm up later in Feb and into March. Cold and snow is much better around the winter solstice IMO as it easily sticks around, unlike into Feb.

 

I loved the late Nov/Dec cold of 2010. Really festive.

 

The early Jan cold of 2010 was also awesome. The depth of the cold was unreal.

December 2010 was severely cold but there was little or no wind ,there have been others with less in the way of severe temps but have felt colder due to bitter winds ,the sheer length of this extended winter period 2012/13  and huge drifts beats 2010 hands down

[NeilN]

I feel it will be a bad winter. The end of November, it will be VERY cold. 2010/11 winter looks likely to be a repeat...with a hint of 1994/95.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I feel it will be a bad winter. The end of November, it will be VERY cold. 2010/11 winter looks likely to be a repeat...with a hint of 1994/95.

 

Latest anomaly for Dec

 

 

and for Jan

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Autumn 2013,a re run of autumn 1962....................

[NeilN]

Autumn 2013,a re run of autumn 1962....................

 

When did that infamous cold spell begin?

[Evening thunder]

December 2010 was severely cold but there was little or no wind ,there have been others with less in the way of severe temps but have felt colder due to bitter winds ,the sheer length of this extended winter period 2012/13  and huge drifts beats 2010 hands down

 

It all depends on location of course, here April 2008 beats March 2013 for snow! and equals it for lowest min temp (and March 2013 had the joint lowest temp of the whole winter season along with 11th December, but that was my highest for any winter season since I began recording (including winters 06/07 and 07/08). Also Jan and Feb both broke my record for the highest â€‹min temps of any winter month.

 

Anyway sorry should probably get back to Autumn, as for Autumn, I can say or make a forecast based on what I'd like to see, but really have no idea what will happen.

 

What I'd like to see is a very warm/hot spell or two in September, a few rain events though, then cooler more Atlantic weather perhaps first cool nights later on.

For the rest of Autumn I'd like some stormy Atlantic weather, but also some quieter spells, and first air frost in October, harder ones in November and the first snow fall. (Basically not too much stagnant high pressure sitting over us later in the season giving benign weather and risking pretty cloudy weather, hopefully high pressure will mainly have crisp polar air).

[DAVID SNOW]

When did that infamous cold spell begin?

November,with a CET of 5.5

[Keraunic]

Lots of very strong gales and some thunder. I like Autumn. I love the softer, gentler heat of September and its a lovely time to be at the coast I think.