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BornFromTheVoid

Global Surface Air Temperature: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

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I used to think that global warming would kill this planet , like many here , but over the last few years I started having a bad feeling about the science that was being spoon fed to me through the media , something didn't feel right about some aspects that were being covered , and thing I have seen , record low temperatures in Russia ( -76 ) this winter , the cold weather in the USA ( which is still going on ) , and of course our own winter , I'm not here to point fingers or call names , but there is something very wrong going on in the world at the moment , I guess as time goes by we will see if any of the climate models turn out to be right hgbrs3we.thumb.JPG.eb85c68e1e506161abeb69ec0cf6b22a.JPG5ae4faf52d279_ty54d.thumb.JPG.4fad8e0c2a62be5326c3054143309ca2.JPG5ae4fb07c80d2_oiiyfre4rv.thumb.JPG.619fd4a8277a62155cfdd011d1f9376e.JPGmutdes3565.thumb.JPG.feccdcb92f8300ac529833c385e854d1.JPG

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Posted (edited)

I do not think you'll have long to wait Tablet!

The displaced cold pole is as much a signal of AGW as the extreme mojo wave that sparked the SSW that we are recovering from.

If you know about 'weather' then you'll know how important the polar region is in our weather ,and so climate. Check the temps around the basin over winter and see if you can spot anything wrong with the picture.

Take a look at ice extent/area at maximum and see if that too causes any alarm bells to ring!

Finally read up on what Jennifer Frances has been producing since the mid noughties and how extreme this area of study has now become.

Our good fortune places us on the edge of the Atlantic and so we will be spared the ravages other , more inner continental areas, will suffer.

Sadly your grain is grown in such regions.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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On 30. 4. 2018 at 16:15, Gray-Wolf said:

Our good fortune places us on the edge of the Atlantic and so we will be spared the ravages other , more inner continental areas, will suffer.

It's already pretty bad here in Central Europe. One warm extreme after another. There was no spring this year, just straight to the summer. Rain has become a rare sight and we are again suffering from extreme drought. The next two weeks will be crucial. We need change soon otherwise there will be no harvest. Unfortunately the forecast is absolutely disheartening.

And it is really sad to see our forests quickly dying. This country will definitely look different very soon.

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Posted (edited)

A couple of pieces of information on the current weather with a view to the longer term climate,,,,  .

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

and

https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/climate.html

So a small drop in the UAH last month,

and the temperature in Svalbard seems to have dropped after the warm period of 2015 - 2016 (open the link to the long term averages  in the above reference).

This clearly explains the additional ice in Barents(z)  compared to the last few years,

and this also has balanced out the loss of ice in Bering.

Also it has not been discussed on here, but as Tablet shows above something seems to have occurred to the ice when the SSW struck at the end of February. We seem to have gained quite a bit of ice as demonstrated by the ice volume and this can only be ascribed to the additional thickness across the whole of the central basin...

So we have less ice in Bering, but more in the central basin...  

An interesting melt season ahead, which will be determined by the weather over the pole in the next few months.

MIA. 

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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I think claiming that one area of the Arctic is balancing out changes in another is a bit disingenuous, considering we're still close to lowest on record my most measures. There's isn't any balance currently.

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I'm quite concerned a bout the late surge of ice into Barentsz from more central areas. Unlike recent years we have seen a clear stort to melt season over the months since max and now we see a warm air incursion over that region? Snow melt  on the ice will lead to a sudden drop in albedo and promote faster surface melt? Combine this with the recent shift to warm SST's as far north as Svalbard over recent years and you can see that ice does not need to get as far south as Fram to be in peril!

The drift south of this ice must leave weaker ,younger ice in its wake ( over the pole) so lead to potential breakup of that ice later in the season and a potential move of the DMI80N temp away from its summer 'freezing' reading?

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I think claiming that the 2 sides of the Arctic that are open to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans , and there for at the mercy of the weather from both ( wave , wind ) , and then posting something like this

mkjhgnu88989.thumb.JPG.59c6147f00811c296992883e81b89cca.JPG

without mentioning weather conditions , is a little bit disingenuous , and then pointing the finger and shouting "AGW " when there could be many factors involved , and nobody seems to look and see if the conditions happened before , here is a depiction that was published in National Geographic back in 1971 , showing the level of summer ice ( as they could tell without satellite data )

lmui65.thumb.JPG.36aca36f25dd27a51d91548cc29c8272.JPG

..and here is todays graphic from the DMI , which I don't think is bad at all , but that could change , just like the weather

ijny4545.thumb.JPG.c7cfe53679a23ff8342c7fe4cf80fe2d.JPG

 

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Not looking good across Mexico or Pakistan.

I'd mentioned in the Arctic thread my concern over any repeat ( but worse due to the changes over the intervening years) of what we saw last low solar and the 'Heat Domes' we saw build then.

We see 3 deaths already in Mexico from the heat and they have a week of it at least to face. Maybe T Rump had advice that the future would include increasing numbers of climate refugees and his 'Wall' is his response.

How will eurasia deal with the billions they may see fleeing areas becoming unlivable? If the Pakistan forecast verifies then we will see deaths there from the extreme and , should the grid fail again, many more.

Central europe is still receiving the last of the cold from the Arctic but , by next week, we should be seeing an end to such at source as the basin sees the last of its cold flushed out by the ongoing WAA .

I am still not seeing my worries over this low solar N.H. summer ease yet.

Maybe next month?

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by knocker
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23 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't that what yeast and sugar are supposed to produce?

Its bottled CO2 that's the problem the main plants in the uk are buggered!!

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On 17/07/2018 at 21:42, Blessed Weather said:

Top 4 warmest Jan to June global temperatures in at least 138 years...

1. 2016
2. 2017
3. 2018
4. 2015

1176866119_ZachLabetop4Jan-JunYrsSurfaceTemps.thumb.jpg.3d35f31e09069fc5b7991d41e40c05f1.jpg

Courtesy of Zach Labe: https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1019081798913945601

I wonder what's causing that, Malcolm? Take this summer's Northern Hemispherical warmth for instance: it can neither be blamed on low sunspot activity nor on La Nina - as both of those encourage cooling (allegedly!)...And, IMO, neither can it be put down to last winter's SSW - as SSWs merely move heat around..?

I can only think of one mechanism that seems to be doing 'what it says on the tin', and that's GHG-generated Global Warming...?🌡️

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5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I wonder what's causing that, Malcolm? Take this summer's Northern Hemispherical warmth for instance: it can neither be blamed on low sunspot activity nor on La Nina - as both of those encourage cooling (allegedly!)...And, IMO, neither can it be put down to last winter's SSW - as SSWs merely move heat around..?

I can only think of one mechanism that seems to be doing 'what it says on the tin', and that's GHG-generated Global Warming...?🌡️

Global Warming, weak jet stream and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seem to be the culprits in the eyes of the experts Pete. Here's an interesting tweet from meteorologist Simon Lee comparing global temperature anomalies in 1976 versus 2018. He notes that in 1976 the anomaly over the UK stuck out like a sore thumb, whereas in 2018 the positive temp anomalies are widespread around the world.

1243001571_SimonLeetweet76v18anom.thumb.jpg.38aefe6fa02837c64dff1f616a993668.jpg

This quote from Professor Tim Osborn, director of research at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in an interesting article on the Guardian website The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause?, confirms the global warming impact and also notes that the 'baseline' for impact from other factors (such as weak jet stream) is now higher:

"However, there is one crucial difference between 1976 and today. The baseline on which these effects operated is very different today. Since 1976 we have had several decades of global warming – caused by rising carbon emissions – which has raised baseline global temperatures significantly. As result, any phenomenon such as the weakening of the jet stream is going to have a more pronounced effect than it did 40 years ago.”

Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause

According to the Colorado State University index the AMO turned negative in January 2018. This tweet from Phil Klotzbach, Research Director, earlier this month:

663653518_KlotzbachtweetAMO5July2018.thumb.jpg.0ee620a15062901da609120e732f9031.jpg

The impact of the AMO is mentioned by Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, in the Guardian article:

Other factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office. “In fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for long periods,” said Scaife.

Here's a NOAA chart showing the AMO negative in 1976:

1873294341_AMOhistoryand1976.thumb.jpg.f9a0ac7d1cbaff363704da55e9e30d93.jpg


 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by knocker
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On 23/07/2018 at 14:45, Blessed Weather said:

Global Warming, weak jet stream and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seem to be the culprits in the eyes of the experts Pete. Here's an interesting tweet from meteorologist Simon Lee comparing global temperature anomalies in 1976 versus 2018. He notes that in 1976 the anomaly over the UK stuck out like a sore thumb, whereas in 2018 the positive temp anomalies are widespread around the world.

1243001571_SimonLeetweet76v18anom.thumb.jpg.38aefe6fa02837c64dff1f616a993668.jpg

This quote from Professor Tim Osborn, director of research at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in an interesting article on the Guardian website The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause?, confirms the global warming impact and also notes that the 'baseline' for impact from other factors (such as weak jet stream) is now higher:

"However, there is one crucial difference between 1976 and today. The baseline on which these effects operated is very different today. Since 1976 we have had several decades of global warming – caused by rising carbon emissions – which has raised baseline global temperatures significantly. As result, any phenomenon such as the weakening of the jet stream is going to have a more pronounced effect than it did 40 years ago.”

Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause

According to the Colorado State University index the AMO turned negative in January 2018. This tweet from Phil Klotzbach, Research Director, earlier this month:

663653518_KlotzbachtweetAMO5July2018.thumb.jpg.0ee620a15062901da609120e732f9031.jpg

The impact of the AMO is mentioned by Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, in the Guardian article:

Other factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office. “In fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for long periods,” said Scaife.

Here's a NOAA chart showing the AMO negative in 1976:

1873294341_AMOhistoryand1976.thumb.jpg.f9a0ac7d1cbaff363704da55e9e30d93.jpg


 

and Simon's followup article https://socialmetwork.blog/2018/07/24/its-a-globalheatwave/ 

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An interesting chart from Neil Kaye, Climate Scientist at the UK Met Office.

"Looking at the patterns it is possible to see global warming emerge. Up to 1920, warm and cold seem randomly distributed. Between 1940 and 1980 warmer years are more recent, but warmest year is not always near the end of series. From 2000, the warmest year is always very recent!"

1714591569_GlobWarminganalysisNeilKayeMetOff.thumb.jpg.06b30d052678218ed2026365a44c9f70.jpg

https://twitter.com/neilrkaye/status/1034410752260628480

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