Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, tablet said:

Urban heat island effect photographed in June's heat wave  by NASA's ECOSTRESS Maps , the heat sink properties of concrete , tarmac , and urbanization can be clearly seen early in the day

Using  any temperature readings from these area's would almost certainly skew recorded temperature records warmer than the true temperature of the surrounding areas , which can be clearly seen to be much cooler , and well below the half a degree correction used for the UHIE ( urban heat island effect ) at the present time ( note the airports are marked , as temperature recording equipment is present at most )

source - https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7445&fbclid=IwAR06X9kqUS6NWWaGRqvCQcMisTjI54eXun1BhyL3TdAmrOkMYWEHacZIrZs

Thank goodness UHIs are both well understood and adjusted-for then?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Pete!

They look at UHI's but never take a look at temp anoms above where we used to see permanent sea ice cover?

Why are they afraid to look at these vast expanses with their tens of degrees asnoms (compared to what we used to measure there?)

And what of the land areas that used to be cooled by sea ice close by? Alaska has zero Sea Ice around it a.t.m.

But no! they still want it to be poor measuring and not the climate crisis the rest of us recognise

 

Ho Hum!

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

The latest post from Nick Stokes may be of interest

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2019/08/active-webgl-plot-of-decadal-regional.html

[knocker]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

3rd warmest August according to the JMA: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/aug_wld.html

Warmest summer overall: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/sum_wld.html

[Jo Farrow]

The Met Office had a Hadley centre scientist on their FB live yesterday Dr Elizabeth Kendon, discussing the new model output for UKCP, UK climate predictions. Using a model of scale usually seen in our weather forecasting work, they ran a climate model over a year- using the Met Office super computers. Serious crunching. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/index  Interesting insite into the work going on now

My blog starting with this summer then the UKCP. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9821-summer-2019-records-and-statistics-future-climate-predictions-for-uk-temperatures

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Polar Maritime]

To be expected as extremes become more normal. Certainly the past few years have proved this throughout the world..

[knocker]

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

H/t Mike Rantanen

The new @NOAA_ESRL 20th Century Reanalysis v3 (20CRv3 allows to estimate the global mean surface temperature all the way back to 1836. Here's how it look like. Our planet has already warmed ~1.1°C compared to 1836-1900 average.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2560/Old-weather-“time-machine”-opens-a-treasure-trove-for-researchers

Edited October 10, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Global average sea-surface temperature from HadSST3 for September 2019 was 0.61±0.08°C above the 1961-1990 mean

[Thundery wintry showers]

Copernicus (using the ERA5 reanalysis) has September 2019 as nominally the warmest September on record, just ahead of 2016, and has 2019 on course to be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year globally.

Surface air temperature for September 2019 | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

2nd warmest September on record according to the JMA

Global Average Surface Temperature Anomalies / TCC

DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

---

Tokyo Climate Center Home Page

8 warmest Septembers all in the last 8 years.

[knocker]

A not uninteresting observation

Polar amplification of surface warming by itself would suggest a weakening of the jet stream winds and possibly more persistent weather regimes. However, tropical amplification of warming in the middle and upper atmosphere (due to latent heat release) largely cancels this out.

https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The Alaska statewide daily temperature index distills temperature departures from around Alaska down to a single number between -10 and +10, with zero being normal. Thus far in 2019, 90 percent (!) of days were warmer than normal.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[knocker]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the european 'Copernicus' have confirmed a 'second place' finish for the global temp of 2019

When you consider that it was only bested by the Super nino year (and beat the year running into the Super Nino/out of the Super nino) we surely must wonder where, in an ENSO 'La Nada' year, such a hike in background global temps came from?

When we look at the report on ocean temps it appears clear that since 2014 we have seen the graph of warming steepening

This coincides with both the flip of the IPO (interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and China ramping up in it 'clean air' drive

So we have entered a period of slower winds over regions of the Pacific (so the heat accrued is not being permanently buried by overturning driven by waves driven by high average wind speeds) likely to last up to 25 years whilst dimming over those regions falls away due to China's 'clean up'

If the noughties were 'blighted' by the opposite of all this (with IPO-ve burying the heat in the Pacific whilst levels of energy reaching the ocean were reduced due to dimming) but still saw a warming world then what ought we to expect when those 'drag downs' are removed?

Our MetO forecasts another plus 1c year for 2020...... but will it be a new global record on the back of this switch in Naturals/Chinese clean up?

Edited January 16, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Kirkcaldy Weather]