Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[dusk]

On 06/12/2015 at 4:50 AM, knocker said:

 

Big UAH adjustment.

Whatever; and moreover that is not catastrophic warming, nor does it have the fingerprint of human induced causality to it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.68C above the 81-10 average (and +0.88C above the 61-90 average) November 2015 is the warmest on record by a massive 0.247C, according to the NCEP reanalysis data. The top 10 warmest Novembers have all occurred since 2001, and 14 of the 15 warmest are from the last 15 years.

The top 5 Novembers

2015:    13.852C
2012:    13.605C
2010:    13.561C
2013:    13.536C
2005:    13.532C

Data Link

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Does that make both October and November record breakers, and by unprecedented margins ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Does that make both October and November record breakers, and by unprecedented margins ?

Yep, at least according to the NCEP reanalysis data it does.

December currently looking like have an even greater anomaly, about 0.2C warmer than that seen in October and November. Using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, several recent days have seen record high daily anomalies, almost 1C above the 81-10 average (so 1.2 or 1.3C above the 61-90 average). The effects of El Nino really kicking off since October.

[knocker]

There appears to be some recent divergence between radiosonde data and RSS

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/12/11/ted-cruz-just-plain-wrong/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just as with the NCEP data, JMA shows November 2015 smashing the previous November, this time by +0.23C

 

1st. 2015 (+0.54°C),
2nd. 2013 (+0.31°C),
3rd. 2001 (+0.26°C),
4th. 2012 (+0.25°C),
5th. 2014, 2006, 2004, 1997 (+0.24°C)

 

The Autumn record, also thoroughly smashed, beating the record set last year by +0.22C

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/aut_wld.html

[knocker]

NASA November temperature update: the heat is still on

http://critical-angle.net/2015/12/14/nasa-november-temperature-update-the-heat-is-still-on/

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS have updated, and at +1.05C, November 2015 is warmest on record by +0.25C. It's also 0.4C warmer than the last similar November El Nino, in 1997.

Top 5 Novembers

2015: +1.05C
2013: +0.80C
2010: +0.79C
2009: +0.78C
2005: +0.75C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Monthly data and 12 month running average with GISS.

[knocker]

Some thoughts - Nick Stokes

November GISS down by only 0.01° on record October.

Quote

As reader David Sanger noted November GISS global average is out, at 1.05°C anomaly. That would be the hottest in the record, if they had not increased October to 1.06°C. The late rise in Oct is not unexpected, since as Olof noted, Brazil and Greenland came in late and relatively warm. TempLS Oct went up too.

Most of the indices now agree on a very slight reduction from October to November. TempLS mesh is down 0.035°C; the NCEP/NCAR index was down about 0.05°. TempLS grid was down 0.01°C, and even the troposphere indices from satellite showed a similar small drop. TempLS mesh and GISS are generally more sensitive to polar changes, which were not large this time.

In other news, December is looking very warm indeed, in the NCEP/NCAR index. I had earlier written about a huge peak in early October, which made October a record month by a great margin. The peak of recent days is much larger again, almost reaching 1°C (1994-2013 base) and staying there for several days, though the latest reading was down to a mere 0.&°C. The average for December so far stands at 0.794°C, 0.23°C higher than October's record.

Even the sea ice is responding. Both Arctic and Antarctic are well down.

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest global temperature forecast by the Met Office have next year as the warmest on record yet again, with a lower estimate of second warmest and upper estimate about 0.2C warmer than this year http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/global-temperature

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest SOTC report has November as the warmest on record, Autumn as the warmest on record and the year to date as the warmest on record.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201511

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2015 was the highest for November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), breaking the previous record of 2013 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This marks the seventh consecutive month that a monthly global temperature record has been broken. The temperature departure from average for November is also the second highest among all months in the 136-year period of record. The highest departure of 0.99°C (1.79°F) occurred last month.

The September–November seasonal temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marks the highest departure from average for the season in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.21°C (0.38°F).

The first 11 months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.14°C (0.25°F). Nine of the first eleven months in 2015 have been record warm for their respective months, with January second warmest for January and April third warmest. The December global temperature would have to be at least 0.81°C (1.46°F) below average—or 0.24°C (0.43°F) colder than the current record low December temperature of 1916—for 2015 to not become the warmest year in the 136-year period of record.

[knocker]

Nick's been playing again

 

Merry Christmas - and a new kind of movie

[knocker]

 

NCEP/NCAR December, up by 0.108°C - highest anomaly in record (again).

Quote

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index for December was 0.621°C, up from November's 0.513°C, and ahead of the previous record - October 2015 at 0.567°C, which itself was a big jump on the previous record. It was an eventful month, with another extraordinary peak early, then mid-month the steepest plunge in recent years (but only to values which would have been high a few months ago) and then back to hot at the end.

There were some late data troubles - a data pause from NCEP for three days, and at my end, I have some end of year issues to fix. But they don't affect the results posted.

Adjusted to the 1951-1980 baseline of GISS, that would give a month anomaly of 1.18°C. The current record there is October at 1.06°C. I would expect that GISS might be a bit lower than 1.18, but still the hottest month in the record. Which makes 2015 even more securely the hottest year.

 Also Tamino has been playing with the CET

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/02/crazy-hot-december/

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Trends and satellite and surface temps since 1979. Surface data well within large satellite uncertainties:

[knocker]

Update from Berkeley Earth

http://berkeleyearth.org/temperature-reports/dec2015/

[BornFromTheVoid]

The JMA December update is in, and it's the most ridiculous yet. December 2015 averaged +0.67C above the 81-10 average, smashing the record set last year by +0.36C!
That's the first anomaly >0.6C above the 81-10 average and the warmest anomaly for any month on record, beating the one set last month by 0.13C.

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2015 (+0.67°C)
2nd. 2014 (+0.31°C)
3rd. 2006, 1997 (+0.28°C)
5th. 2003 (+0.25°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/dec_wld.html

[Devonian]

On 11/01/2016 at 4:47 PM, knocker said:

Trends and satellite and surface temps since 1979. Surface data well within large satellite uncertainties:

Where's that from then K? IPCC?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Devonian said:

Where's that from then K? IPCC?

Kevin Cowtan demonstrates the large uncertainty in satellite temperature trend derivations http://skepticalscience.com/surface_temperature_or_satellite_brightness.html …

[Devonian]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Kevin Cowtan demonstrates the large uncertainty in satellite temperature trend derivations http://skepticalscience.com/surface_temperature_or_satellite_brightness.html …

Oh, right, thanks! An interesting read!

Edited January 14, 2016 by Devonian

[knocker]

Carl Mears, who knows a thing or two about remote sensing, replies to the rubbish spouted by Senator Cruz.

A Response to the “Data or Dogma?” hearing

http://skepticalscience.com/Response-Data-or-Dogma-hearing.html

[knocker]

GISS up by 0.07°C in December, NOAA by 0.14, many records set.

As widely discussed here, 2015 was record hot, and getting hotter at the end. NOAA and GISS made a joint release - NOAA's report is here. For 2015 the annual average anomaly for 2015 was 0.9 °C, which beat the 2014 record level by 0.16°C. GISS put it at 0.85°C, relative to their 1951-80 base; for 2014 it was 0.74.

For December, GISS reported 1.12°C. This was a rise of 0.07°C from November. As usual, this was very close to the change in TempLS mesh, which now stands at 0.076°C. The rise in NOAA (0.14) was also, as usual, very similar to TempLS grid (0.16°C).

According to the NCEP/NCAR index, January is even hotter again, by a long way. The last two days have been cooler. I'll post more on the historical significance of these huge monthly and annual readings shortly, along with the usual GISS/TempLS comparison.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/giss-up-by-007-in-december-noaa-by-014.html

Presentation here, http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/noaa_nasa_global_analysis_2015.pdf with NOAA anomaly .90C. In a teleconference this morning they both said well over 90% certainty that 2015 is the warmest so far (NOAA says 99%), and both expect that 2016 is likely to be even warmer.

Edited January 20, 2016 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here the GISS LOTI data for December.

And here is all the monthly data with a 12 month rolling average.

[knocker]

GISS and TempLS compared, in December and in 2015.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/giss-and-templs-compared-in-december.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

AMA with Gavin Schmidt and Reto Ruedy on reddit currently

Science AMA Series: We are Gavin Schmidt and Reto Ruedy, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and on Wed., Jan. 20 we released our analysis that found 2015 was the warmest year — by a lot — in the modern record. Ask Us Anything!

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/41zr2t/science_ama_series_we_are_gavin_schmidt_and_reto/