Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[knocker]

  TempLS shows July anomaly down by 0.05°C

 

This balances the rise in June, so it is still warm. Canada and India are still to report, but I am posting today, because the next few days will be busy for me. The detailed report is here. The result is almost exactly in line with the drop reported here in the NCEP/NCAR index. The RSS troposphere index showed a drop of about 0.1°C. So it looks likely that July really was cooler. The main features seem to be, as with the NCEP/NCAR index, warmth around the Mediterranean, and cold in NW Russia and N Europe. Fairly cool in E N America. In time, the NCAR index showed a cool spell early-mid July. Maps below the fold.

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

 

BFTV

 

I am a bit surprised by this.....

It seems to be only the 5th warmest year to date, when last month NCDC was showing the warmest year to date ever and it was rising quickly.

Aslo the fact that July was not the warmest when El Nino is now having its wicked way and according to many the graph should be rocketing by now.

I do find it very strange.

Perhaps the colder NAO is upstaging the PDO effects?

MIA

 

 

You have it a bit wrong. It's the 5th warmest July, the 2nd warmest year to date.

 

I think it helps to remember that there is usually a lag of 6-9 months before the full effects of ENSO variations can be seen on global temperatures. In that sense, we're are currently more similar to July 1997, which had a 3.4 anomaly +1.5, rather than July 1998, which was already back to a La Nina for the 3.4 temps (-0.76). 

 

The NAO causes warmth in some areas and cold in others, it doesn't have too much of an impact on the global average.

Edited August 6, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Midlands Ice Age]

You have it a bit wrong. It's the 5th warmest July, the 2nd warmest year to date.

 

BFTV

Thanks for the response..

I apologise for my faux-pas. A phrase in the middle somehow got deleted and it changed the meaning of what I said completely!! You got the gist of it anyway. Thankyou!

MIA

[knocker]

History of temperature scales and their impact on the climate trends

 

Guest post by Peter Pavlásek of the Slovak Institute of Metrology. Metrology, not meteorology, they are the scientists that work on making measurements more precise by developing high accurate standards and thus make experimental results better comparable.

 

http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/history-of-temperature-scales-metrology.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Jim Hansen AMA (Q&A) is up now:

 

PLOS Science Wednesday: We're Jim Hansen, a professor at Columbia’s Earth Institute, and Paul Hearty, a professor at UNC-Wilmington, here to make the case for urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which are on the verge of locking in highly undesirable consequences, Ask Us Anything

 

Hi Reddit,

I’m Jim Hansen, a professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute[1] .http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/sections/view/9[2] Today I make the case for urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are on the verge of locking in highly undesirable consequences, leaving young people with a climate system out of humanity's control. Not long after my 1988 testimony to Congress, when I concluded that human-made climate change had begun, practically all nations agreed in a 1992 United Nations Framework Convention to reduce emissions so as to avoid dangerous human-made climate change. Yet little has been done to achieve that objective.

I am glad to have the opportunity today to discuss with researchers and general science readers here on redditscience an alarming situation — as the science reveals climate threats that are increasingly alarming, policymakers propose only ineffectual actions while allowing continued development of fossil fuels that will certainly cause disastrous consequences for today's young people. Young people need to understand this situation and stand up for their rights.

To further a broad exchange of views on the implications of this research, my colleagues and I have published in a variety of open access journals, including, in PLOS ONE[3] , Assessing Dangerous Climate Change: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature (2013)[4] , PLOS ONE[5] , Assessing Dangerous Climate Change: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature (2013)[6] , and most recently, Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from the Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling that 2 C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous[7] , in Atmos. Chem. & Phys. Discussions[8] (July, 2015).

One conclusion we share in the latter paper is that ice sheet models that guided IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)[9] sea level projections and upcoming United Nations meetings in Paris are far too sluggish compared with the magnitude and speed of sea level changes in the paleoclimate record. An implication is that continued high emissions likely would result in multi-meter sea level rise this century and lock in continued ice sheet disintegration such that building cities or rebuilding cities on coast lines would become foolish.

The bottom line message we as scientists should deliver to the public and to policymakers is that we have a global crisis, an emergency that calls for global cooperation to reduce emissions as rapidly as practical. We conclude and reaffirm in our present paper that the crisis calls for an across-the-board rising carbon fee and international technical cooperation in carbon-free technologies. This urgent science must become part of a global conversation about our changing climate and what all citizens can do to make the world livable for future generations.

Joining me is my co-author, Professor Paul Hearty, a professor at University of North Carolina — Wilmington.

I’ll be answering your questions from 1 – 2pm ET today. Ask Us Anything!

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3gporh/plos_science_wednesday_were_jim_hansen_a/

[Gray-Wolf]

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

PDO on the way up again? Are we any closer to calling a flip yet???

[BornFromTheVoid]

July 2015 was the warmest on record according to the JMA, and by quite a margin.

 

 

1st. 2015 (+0.38°C)

2nd. 1998 (+0.30°C)

3rd. 2014 (+0.28°C)

4th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C)

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS agree with the JMA and have July 2015 as the warmest on record at +0.75C.

 

2015: +0.75C

2011: +0.74C

2009: +0.72C

1998: +0.71C

2005: +0.66C

 

 

EDIT: Here's the year to date.

 

Edited August 14, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

An article by Kevin Trenberth

 

Has there been a hiatus?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6249/691.summary

Edited August 14, 2015 by knocker

[Nouska]

An article by Kevin Trenberth

 

Has there been a hiatus?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6249/691.summary

 

Such a sensible article.

 

The trend line was based on a period when all the thermostats were set to high - it will happen again in the future but the understanding of these step changes should surely bring less discord among climate forum participants.

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

 

The GISS global anomaly average fell from 0.79°C to 0.75°C in July. This is quite close (as expected) to the decrease (now 0.059°C) in TempLS mesh. It is even closer to the 0.039°C drop in TempLS grid.

It is also the same as the 0.04°C drop in the NCEP/NCAR average. Early in August, I said
"NCEP July was fairly close to April, so those are a reasonable guess for July - ie GISS 0.74°C, NOAA 0.78°C. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them a little higher."
Meanwhile GISS June was adjusted down by 0.01.

The spatial pattern is quite similar to that of TempLS and the NCEP/NCAR based average. Maps below the fold.

 

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/giss-down-by-004-in-july.html

[knocker]

Change points of global temperature

OPEN ACCESS

 

 

Abstract

We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/8/084002/article

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest month on record and warmest year to date, according to the latest NCDC SOTC report.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201507

 

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136-year period of record, at 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). As July is climatologically the warmest month of the year globally, this monthly global temperature of 16.61°C (61.86°F) was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880. The July temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.65°C (1.17°F) per century.

 

The first seven months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). Five months this year, including the past three, have been record warm for their respective months. January was the second warmest January on record and April third warmest.

[knocker]

  NOAA says July hottest month ever

 

here but I wish they wouldn't. In fact the anomaly was down from 0.87°C in June to 0.81°C. Oddly, that change is exactly what TempLS mesh now shows, while TempLS grid has the same drop (0.04°C) as GISS. Usually it is the other way around.

OK, so it is a warm year, and this was still the warmest July on record. The NOAA claim that it is the warmest month ever (also Tamino) is based on the annual cycle of absolute temperature, whereby ocean-cominated SH summers are cooler than NH, with less seasonal variation.

Why is this a silly point? The NOAA has a sensible discussion here on the reason for using anomalies in preference to absolute - see point 7. Yet they don't seem to be able to stick to it. They keep lapsing into quoting an annual absolute global temperature, and of course regularly quote a ConUS absolute average.

And it just gets them into trouble, pointlessly. The global absolute is got by adding the anomaly to an annual climatology (14°C) taken from a Phil Jones 1999 paper. But the average anomaly is known rather well, the climatology very poorly in comparison. So the sum is worth far less than the parts. Every now and then, a  sceptic raises the 1997 estimate of 62.45°F (16.92°C) for that year and says - see! the world has cooled over 2°C since. NOAA has been forced to add a feeble disclaimer to the 1997 report. But the sceptics are right (for once) to point this out. It just makes the NOAA look dumb. And of course the troubles caused with the absolute average for ConUS (in clumsy hands) are innumerable.

Back to July - we knew that the global absolute has that seasonal  cycle. It doesn't mean anything in terms of climate change, and isn't news. March had a very high anomaly, July less. But July will always exceed March in absolute.

That's one of the main things about anomaly - it contains the news. The information content about weather and climate change. If I tell you that it was 17°C here yesterday, you won't be impressed. The natural question is - what is it normally? Ie, what is the anomaly? And then you find that it is indeed quite warm for an August day.

You can see this news issue in a temperature map. If you see an absolute temperature map for July 2015, it looks like any other July. Sure, it tells you that Melbourne Fl is warmer than Melbourne Australia, and much other climatological information. But it doesn't tell you much about July 2015. For that you need the anomaly map.

NOAA knows all this. I just wish they would stick to it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

  NOAA says July hottest month ever

 

Hmmm, I can see his argument that mentioning hottest year on record isn't entirely relevant to climate change. But at the same time, they mention lots of things that aren't in each report, like the extremes around the world. Recording the hottest absolute month is worth mentioning IMO, it's interesting and relevant, though perhaps not quite so relevant or consistent to use in the context of climate change.

Also, AGW "sceptics" will find things to complain about anyway, or make them up. Holding back on interesting info for fear of "sceptics" twisting it would be worse.

Edited August 21, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Woollymummy]

I know this is hard to talk about with evidence, as I have none to hand, but there is something else which is useful to think about, and that is the daily lowest temperature. I have a feeling there is a trend for the lowest temperatures of the day to have not been as low recently, is it possible to find a graph to show this? Thankyou for all the posts about the highest temperatures, much appreciated.

[knocker]

Hmmm, I can see his argument that mentioning hottest year on record isn't entirely relevant to climate change. But at the same time, they mention lots of things that aren't in each report, like the extremes around the world. Recording the hottest absolute month is worth mentioning IMO, it's interesting and relevant, though perhaps not quite so relevant or consistent to use in the context of climate change.

Also, AGW "sceptics" will find things to complain about anyway, or make them up. Holding back on interesting info for fear of "sceptics" twisting it would be worse.

 

It's no big deal but I think the point he's making, which I think perfectly valid, is that NOAA muddy the waters unnecessarily by not sticking to their own guide lines.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I know this is hard to talk about with evidence, as I have none to hand, but there is something else which is useful to think about, and that is the daily lowest temperature. I have a feeling there is a trend for the lowest temperatures of the day to have not been as low recently, is it possible to find a graph to show this? Thankyou for all the posts about the highest temperatures, much appreciated.

 

Here's a bit from the IPCC AR4 on maximum and minimum temps. There's probably a similar section in the new report under chapter 2 Observations: Atmosphere and Surface". Unfortunately, I've got a small data limit on my internet, so I can't download the chapters to find it for you.

[knocker]

A bit early in the morning for me to get my head around this latest from NS.

 

  Daily reanalysis variation - smoothed maps

[John Badrick]

OK, I know I get slammed for saying just because its not 30 degrees IMBY global warming is not happening, but if someone told me back in 2000 (when I truly believed we were heating up) the temp will not get any higher (in Cornwall, one of the mildest counties in the Uk) than a measly 20 degrees for the whole of July, August and much of June in 15 years time, during the summer of 2015 I would have laughed in their face. Global warming may be happening else where, but it sure aint happening here, where we are, our island, our home. If someone told me 15 years ago Cornwall will be enjoying 35 degrees+ temps and heat waves during the summer months I would have believed them. Its not happening!!! another summer has passed and yet again it has been cold and disappointing down here in Cornwall. On the plus side, they said we would be suffering endless droughts, my garden is looking lush , green and in full bloom!!!

P.S I know I will get the " But during global warming episodes you will naturally get local differences and anomalies"  but my question is why am I not seeing long hot summers????(i'm not bitter or ought   !!! just waiting for my 1976 style summer that I was promised during my life time)

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi J.B. !

 

I'm with you on the lack of summer heat and consistency but I'm actually concerned at the summers we have endured since 07'?

 

I very much accept the notion that Jet Stream positioning has become impacted by super heating over the Pole through melt season  (compared to lower latitude warming) but feel that this is a temporary 'phase' with the Jet eventually effectively disappearing over summer ( as we see with the P.V. ?) allowing a very real and rapid change to most of the N.Hemisphere......... sadly we are still sat downwind of an ocean with an ice sheet flooding into it which might just provide us with a cloud fest unless a euro high drives it around us and floods us with their heat as it does so??? 

[John S2]

 my question is why am I not seeing long hot summers

July 2013 was a hot month for the UK although it has to be accepted that it followed a run of six poor summers.

On the subject of summer 2015 one possible influence is shown in this chart:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201501-201507.gif

An area of the North Atlantic was record cold for the Jan-July period and given that our weather generally comes from the West this is bound to have some effect on temperatures. The fact that this area has been record cold does not mean that global warming is not happening. One of the contributing factors is increasing Greenland ice melt.

[BornFromTheVoid]

OK, I know I get slammed for saying just because its not 30 degrees IMBY global warming is not happening, but if someone told me back in 2000 (when I truly believed we were heating up) the temp will not get any higher (in Cornwall, one of the mildest counties in the Uk) than a measly 20 degrees for the whole of July, August and much of June in 15 years time, during the summer of 2015 I would have laughed in their face. Global warming may be happening else where, but it sure aint happening here, where we are, our island, our home. If someone told me 15 years ago Cornwall will be enjoying 35 degrees+ temps and heat waves during the summer months I would have believed them. Its not happening!!! another summer has passed and yet again it has been cold and disappointing down here in Cornwall. On the plus side, they said we would be suffering endless droughts, my garden is looking lush , green and in full bloom!!!

P.S I know I will get the " But during global warming episodes you will naturally get local differences and anomalies"  but my question is why am I not seeing long hot summers????(i'm not bitter or ought   !!! just waiting for my 1976 style summer that I was promised during my life time)

 

In the context of global warming, it doesn't help to examine just one location, as I'm sure you're aware. It makes that one location even less useful if you just examine one season, and even less useful again if you just look at one location, one season, and just a few years.

 

However, even taking a small nearby area like the CET region, the fingerprint of global warming is very much clear. The 3 warmest CET years have occurred in the last 9 years. Every season and every month shows a warming trend over both the entire record and in the last few decades.

 

Despite such an awful summer this year in places (Ireland even got it worse than Cornwall!), there has only been 1 summer CET below 15C in the last 10 years. Now, compare that to the 1980s, which had 5 summers below 15C, or the 1920s which had 6 under 15C, or the period of 1907 to 1916 which had 8 summers below 15C, 2 of which we less than 14C. Go back further to the early 19th century and you'll find 9 summers in a row below 15C from 1809 to 1817.

 

Really, despite some washout summers in recent years, they've remained remarkably free of lasting cool conditions.

 

Why no long hot summers though? Well, that's weather. Global warming can only do so much, we need the weather to work with us and stick high pressure over us or to our east, to warm up the continent and send pulses of heat across the UK.

 

We will get spells of warm, dry summers again just as we'll get mild wet ones. But just because our climate gets warmer, doesn't mean it will always be dry and hot.

[John Badrick]

In the context of global warming, it doesn't help to examine just one location, as I'm sure you're aware. It makes that one location even less useful if you just examine one season, and even less useful again if you just look at one location, one season, and just a few years.

 

However, even taking a small nearby area like the CET region, the fingerprint of global warming is very much clear. The 3 warmest CET years have occurred in the last 9 years. Every season and every month shows a warming trend over both the entire record and in the last few decades.

 

Despite such an awful summer this year in places (Ireland even got it worse than Cornwall!), there has only been 1 summer CET below 15C in the last 10 years. Now, compare that to the 1980s, which had 5 summers below 15C, or the 1920s which had 6 under 15C, or the period of 1907 to 1916 which had 8 summers below 15C, 2 of which we less than 14C. Go back further to the early 19th century and you'll find 9 summers in a row below 15C from 1809 to 1817.

 

Really, despite some washout summers in recent years, they've remained remarkably free of lasting cool conditions.

 

Why no long hot summers though? Well, that's weather. Global warming can only do so much, we need the weather to work with us and stick high pressure over us or to our east, to warm up the continent and send pulses of heat across the UK.

 

We will get spells of warm, dry summers again just as we'll get mild wet ones. But just because our climate gets warmer, doesn't mean it will always be dry and hot.

So would you say in 15 years time in Cornwall, during the summer of 2030 I will be enjoying days of 35 degrees + or will I still be complaining that we didn't even reach 20 degrees?.snowness winters and hot summers were predicted back then, they didn't happen.my next question is when will I be feeling the effects of global warming that I'm reminded about everyday?

[BornFromTheVoid]

So would you say in 15 years time in Cornwall, during the summer of 2030 I will be enjoying days of 35 degrees + or will I still be complaining that we didn't even reach 20 degrees?.snowness winters and hot summers were predicted back then, they didn't happen.my next question is when will I be feeling the effects of global warming that I'm reminded about everyday?

 

Whether or not you get to enjoy 35C in Cornwall or are suffering under another mild wet summer is down to the weather, just like every summer. Now, global warming might increase the chances of hot weather regionally, but it's never going to be a guarantee. The likelihood is that the average summer temperature for the 2030s will be warmer than for the 2010s, but as for what each individual summer will do, that's down to weather, not climate change.

Also, no scientific predictions has ever been made that suggested no more snow and only hot sunny summers. Some tabloid media stuff may have claimed these things, but then tabloid media claim a lot of things that we know not to take seriously.

 

What global warming effects are you reminded of every day?