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Global Surface Air Temperature: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

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Thought a thread discussing the current global air temperatures and predictions might be of some use. By predictions, perhaps the climatically near term (next 30 years or so) would be best.

Anyway, to start off, the NOAA State of the Climate report has been released for May. Here are some of the details

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/5

 

 

Global Highlights
  • [*]
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2013 tied with 1998 and 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).  [*]The global land surface temperature was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F), also the third warmest May on record. For the ocean, the May global sea surface temperature was 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F), tying with 2003 and 2009 as the fifth warmest May on record.  [*]The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the March–May period was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F), tying with 2004 as the eighth warmest such period on record. [*]The March–May worldwide land surface temperature was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average, the 11th warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.45°C (0.81°F) above the 20th century average and tied with 2001 as the seventh warmest such period on record.  [*]The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–May period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.1°C (55.5°F), the eighth warmest such period on record.

 

I think it's quite interesting that we've managed the 3rd warmest May on record and 8th warmest year so far despite what are almost Nina conditions and plenty of cold spells around the northern hemisphere.

Seems unlikely that we'll see a top 5 year with ENSO neutral/Nina conditions predicted to remain during the year.

 

So what do people think? Will we see new record highs before the decade is out, perhaps during the next El Nino? Or pronounced cooling being felt due to the quiet sun? Or just continue posting top 15 years until a change arrives in the 2020s?

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Thought a thread discussing the current global air temperatures and predictions might be of some use. By predictions, perhaps the climatically near term (next 30 years or so) would be best.

Anyway, to start off, the NOAA State of the Climate report has been released for May. Here are some of the details

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/5

 

 

I think it's quite interesting that we've managed the 3rd warmest May on record and 8th warmest year so far despite what are almost Nina conditions and plenty of cold spells around the northern hemisphere.

Seems unlikely that we'll see a top 5 year with ENSO neutral/Nina conditions predicted to remain during the year.

 

So what do people think? Will we see new record highs before the decade is out, perhaps during the next El Nino? Or pronounced cooling being felt due to the quiet sun? Or just continue posting top 15 years until a change arrives in the 2020s?

Solar cycle 24 is about to take a secound dip towards the end of 2013 to expect more extremes and another cold winter will be soon upon us as solar cycle dip happens   http://t.co/0lgkOCXwlj

Edited by keithlucky

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Personally I only trust enso temperature data.

 

  Thermometer data for comparison purposes really can be skewed by land uses in the area surrounding the weather station.  I wonder how many long standing weather stations have had a change in the surrounding area.

 

 However good idea to start a thread on this topic.

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There was a recent paper on this which I can't find. This covers it to a certain extent but not anywhere near in as much detail.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements.htm

 

Or

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Assessing-global-surface-temperature-reconstructions.html

Edited by knocker

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Personally I only trust enso temperature data.

 

  Thermometer data for comparison purposes really can be skewed by land uses in the area surrounding the weather station.  I wonder how many long standing weather stations have had a change in the surrounding area.

 

 However good idea to start a thread on this topic.

Very good point about weather stations a lot of movement in land uses ,and after all hinges on what data you believe.

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Personally I only trust enso temperature data.

 

  Thermometer data for comparison purposes really can be skewed by land uses in the area surrounding the weather station.  I wonder how many long standing weather stations have had a change in the surrounding area.

 

 However good idea to start a thread on this topic.

 

The satellite temperature data isn't subject to changes in land use, nor UHI.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

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Well yes it is, but I'm assuming that better averages can be formed from the data if its not done on a very local scale.  That just makes sense to me.

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Am I missing something - or is the UHI effect not another instance of manmade climate change?

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So what do people think? Will we see new record highs before the decade is out, perhaps during the next El Nino? Or pronounced cooling being felt due to the quiet sun? Or just continue posting top 15 years until a change arrives in the 2020s?

 

Out of interest why is everything downward in global temperatures down to the sun, but warming can't be? (see oodles of papers explaining that the sun's had virtually no influence since about 1970)

Edited by Sparkicle

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Out of interest why is everything downward in global temperatures down to the sun, but warming can't be? (see oodles of papers explaining that the sun's had virtually no influence since about 1970)

Of course it can be...But, can CO2 push global temps any other way but upwards?

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Out of interest why is everything downward in global temperatures down to the sun, but warming can't be? (see oodles of papers explaining that the sun's had virtually no influence since about 1970)

 

I'm afraid I only had time to post a handful of suggestions. Give me a few years and I might be able to post every possible climate driver and every possible future scenario involving themPosted Image

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While Keith Strong's videos are usually quite good, I think that describing Arctic sea ice as "at or near record lows" while calling Antarctic sea "slightly above normal levels" ain't entirely accurate...

Antarctic sea ice at or near record highs and Arctic sea ice slightly below average would have been a more accurate description methinks.

 

EDIT: Guess it goes to show that an observation of a link somebody posts to can be taken as intended and not blown out of all proportionPosted Image

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Thanks for that BFTV Posted Image

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Might a 78/79 style "climate shift" be on the cards?

 

 

A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
 
Posted on 24 June 2013 by Rob Painting
Key Points:
Despite a large increase in heat being absorbed by the Earth's climate system (oceans, land & ice), the first decade of the 21st century saw a slowdown in the rate of global surface warming (surface air temperatures).
 
A climate model-based study, Meehl (2011), predicted that this was largely due to anomalous heat removed from the surface ocean and instead transported down into the deep ocean. This anomalous deep ocean warming was later confirmed by observations.
 
This deep ocean warming in the model occurred during negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), an index of the mean state of the north and south Pacific Ocean, and was most likely in response to intensification of the wind-driven ocean circulation.
 
Meehl (2013) is an update to their previous work, and the authors show that accelerated warming decades are associated with the positive phase of the IPO. This is a result of a weaker wind-driven ocean circulation, when a large decrease in heat transported to the deep ocean allows the surface ocean to warm quickly, and this in turn raises global surface temperatures.
 
This modelling work, combined with current understanding of the wind-driven ocean circulation, implies that global surface temperaures will rise   quickly when the IPO switches from the current negative phase to a positive phase.

 

 

More here 

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Not good news then.

 

This modelling work, combined with current understanding of the wind-driven ocean circulation, implies that global surface temperaures will rise   quickly when the IPO switches from the current negative phase to a positive phase.

 

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Not good news then.

 

Surprised there's been so little comment on the IPO study. If verified, it could explain quite a lot.

Another period of rapid temperature increases, beginning anywhere from the next few years to the 2020s, would be interesting too. If we put on 0.3C earlier in the century, 0.5C from the late 70s to present, could we add as  much as the two previous warm periods combined on the next +ve IPO phase?

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The problem here and possibly the reason there is so little interest is this particular topic is the issue of models and their accuracy,  (fail) input, (incomplete or faulty) and of course the ridicule of Trenberths missing heat fiasco.

Now proceeding to duck down to avoid incoming flack.

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The problem here and possibly the reason there is so little interest is this particular topic is the issue of models and their accuracy,  (fail) input, (incomplete or faulty) and of course the ridicule of Trenberths missing heat fiasco.

Now proceeding to duck down to avoid incoming flack.

 

I suppose asking you to back up your statement is giving you "flack"? But if you wouldn't mind...

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Change of heart by the MET OFFICE??  What are their reasons for their  change in forecast?

Any information on this forum? or MET OFFICE?

 

Major change in UK Met Office global warming forecast

 

 

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/

 

Posted Image

Edited by crikey

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Change of heart by the MET OFFICE??  What are their reasons for their  change in forecast?

Any information on this forum? or MET OFFICE?

 

Major change in UK Met Office global warming forecast

 

 

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/major-change-in-uk-met-office-global-warming-forecast/

 

Posted Image

 

Only that's not a "global warming forecast". It basically a forecast of the oceans cycles. Climate forecasts are longer than a handful of yearsPosted Image

It still predicts some of the warmest years on record though.

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Dr. Jeff Master's WunderBlog

 

As I discussed in a March 2013 post, "Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?", research published this year by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in German found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in August 2002, during Central Europe's previous 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year flood. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. According to an email I received from German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the co-authors of the study, unusually extreme jet stream amplitudes likely played a role in the May - June Central European flooding event.

 

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2452

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This is my take on things also ( though it is at odds with other 'more knowledgeable posters?) and leads me to believe that being able to better forecast the 'flow' of the Jet would bring a' heads up' for potentials like our previous years flooding and Europe's impacts this year?

 

If we know that we have certain geographic features 'force the jet in certain directions ( like the Rockies?) and that certain low ice/snow levels allow the Arctic to become far warmer, far quicker than the rest of the hemisphere then maybe we can 'rough out' the most probable amplitude and wavelength of the Jet that will result?

 

As with any 'oscillation' you can impart more energy at one point but would you then not expect the impacts to resonate for a period before the pattern again settles? If that 'resonating' goes on long enough to meet the next 'shove' then what would we then expect to see?

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The NCDC June data has been updated, and it was the joint 5th warmest June on record, and 7th warmest year to date (0.07C above last year and 0.13C bleow the warmest on record, 2010). ENSO remains of the negative side of neutral

 

Global Highlights
  • [*]
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). [*]The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10th warmest June on record. [*]The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/6

 

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The NCDC June data has been updated, and it was the joint 5th warmest June on record, and 7th warmest year to date (0.07C above last year and 0.13C bleow the warmest on record, 2010). ENSO remains of the negative side of neutral

 

Global Highlights

[*]The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).

[*]The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10th warmest June on record.

[*]The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/6

Who"s correct?http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2013/07/more-bad-news-for-ipcc.html

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