Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Tony27]

models look ok nothing special though and i would be wary of that annoying little pest of a trough to our east on the GFS albeit it is shown at T150

 

also it seems like any proper thundery rain will miss us on friday as it goes into the north sea, not really surprised though as things are always overhyped

Edited June 19, 2013 by Tony27

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly more signs of the jet stream generally heading Northwards to allow the Azores high to try and slowly ridge in. The complication is the low pressure system for the weekend, in general we need for this to head as far as East as possible for it to fill then the Azores high influence should effect us more giving us a drier but not necessarily a completely sunny and warm outlook. The complication of the low heading Eastwards will be influenced by that massive pool of hot air over Scandinavia as like cold air in winter, hot air can be stubborn and low pressure can in general struggle to break down a blocking high with alot of heat trapped underneath in it but it does look like yet more records could well be broken in this part of the world.

 

All in all, an interesting outlook and I can accept this unsettled weekend if the medium term trends do indeed come off. 

[Frosty.]

 

 

also it seems like any proper thundery rain will miss us on friday as it goes into the north sea, not really surprised though as things are always overhyped

The thundery rain is tonight and tomorrow, not friday, friday it's residual showers clearing east then a window of fine weather followed by wet, windy and cool weather. Met office yellow warnings have been issued for the southwest and southeast.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

This evening's ukmo 12z is just as good as the 00z this morning, monday still looks unsettled and cool across the east & northeast of the uk with the filling trough just to the east of the uk but the azores/atlantic ridging already pushing into the west, by tuesday the high is ridging northeastwards across the uk with drier, sunnier and pleasantly warmer weather once the trough is gone, if this run had gone further, it would show an anticyclone building strongly over the uk towards the end of next week and would be a perfect run for the Glastonbury Festival which starts next wednesday, a dry and warm Glastonbury.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tony27]

The thundery rain is tonight and tomorrow, not friday, friday it's residual showers clearing east then a window of fine weather followed by wet, windy and cool weather. Met office yellow warnings have been issued for the southwest and southeast.

it looks very scattered to me this thundery rain tonight, on friday there is a big clump of rain which skims the east coast http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130619/12/45/ukprec.png

still, on the bright side at least it will be warm on friday that is unless GFS is overcooking temps again

[Captain Shortwave]

it looks very scattered to me this thundery rain tonight, on friday there is a big clump of rain which skims the east coast http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130619/12/45/ukprec.png

still, on the bright side at least it will be warm on friday that is unless GFS is overcooking temps again

It's best to radar watch to be honest. Some huge storms have formed over France this afternoon and the entire mass is moving north, just reaching the channel now. So it's best to get watching and see whether it makes the hop across the sea of doom

[Frosty.]

it looks very scattered to me this thundery rain tonight, on friday there is a big clump of rain which skims the east coast http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130619/12/45/ukprec.png

still, on the bright side at least it will be warm on friday that is unless GFS is overcooking temps again

Yes it looks like there will be scattered thunderstorms tonight & tomorrow across the southern half of the uk, some areas becoming misty, others becoming sunnier in the afternoon, the southeast looks like having sunny spells in the afternoon but the southwest and wales look like having heavy rain pm with thunder, rain and showers also pushing north across the midlands into northern england tomorrow afternoon, again with a risk of thunder.

[Milhouse]

Ukmo 12z is full of promise with the jet stream tracking well to the north of the UK where it should at this time of year. The chart at T+144 wouldnt be especialy warm bt the trend is to push high pressure east and north so temperatures on the up throughout next week which could be totally dry for many parts.

[bradymk]

Very impressive thunderstorm over Paris & NE France. Huge storm, http://sat24.com/ looks great on sat.

[Frosty.]

I'm doing my best to just ignore the update at that range they always change as we know

 

 

Spot on, it's good to see the 12z models continue to build the azores/atlantic anticyclone up and across the uk next week, it was only the navgem 00z which had the cool unsettled spell persisting beyond next monday, all the other models showed high pressure pushing northeast. The ukmo 12z looks particularly good at T+144 hours tonight, good continuity from the ukmo model today.

[Summer Sun]

After last nights awful run from GFS in FI this evening its completely different with high pressure in charge

 

 

And the jet stream is where it should be well north of the UK

 

 

Cloud could well be a problem at times but if it thins and break the sun will soon get to work given its strength at this time of year

[Summer Sun]

And to complete the set the ensembles show a warm and increasingly dry period setting up

 

This just had to happen after the up-to 10 years of wash out summer headline's in the papers today

 

 

The driest ensemble there is the London one but they all show well below average rainfall what a difference from 12 months ago

[stainesbloke]

Very impressive thunderstorm over Paris & NE France. Huge storm, http://sat24.com/ looks great on sat.

That is one mother of a storm!! Slap bang over my brothers house 40kms N of Paris. Lucky sod!!! Potential there for some activity to develop in the South tonight....

[stainesbloke]

After last nights awful run from GFS in FI this evening its completely different with high pressure in charge

And the jet stream is where it should be well north of the UK

Cloud could well be a problem at times but if it thins and break the sun will soon get to work given its strength at this time of year

Some encouraging charts for sure, especially if you're looking for some settled weather. The key for me is the jet moving to its normal summer position, that's a big change and very welcome.

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows the other models in slowly rising pressure from the west next week

 

 

Out of UKMO and ECM its UKMO which looks better at t144 with the high drifting much further east and thus no troughs to worry about

 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Jezzer]

Some encouraging charts for sure, especially if you're looking for some settled weather. The key for me is the jet moving to its normal summer position, that's a big change and very welcome.

 

It has to be said that jet position has been a rarety in the past six summers, it's good to see

[Evening thunder]

Not really keen on the ECM T+144 hours chart.. cool northerly with 0-2C uppers, no thanks:

At least there will be some sunshine so maybe not too bad, but coolish day temps and cold nights for June possibly. Hopefully the high can edge further east with warmer uppers coming into the mix, but something looks to be trying to form or hold on in the North Sea..

Edited June 19, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

ECM is a tad slower than UKMO but we're getting there slowly just need to shift that trough over parts of the south and its game on

 

 

The temps are nothing like today but given any sunshine that will easily compensate after all we are in June

Edited June 19, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is much slower to change from cool & unsettled next week compared to the ukmo but that is one big block of high pressure poised to the west and southwest of the uk once the trough fills and clears off, that high will push northeastwards over the uk.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is really dragging it's heels and keeps the eastern half of the uk in a cool, cloudier and showery northerly flow while the west becomes more settled with lighter winds and more sunshine, west is best on this run, this is pretty much as the latest met office update in terms of the east being cooler and more showery until the middle of next week.

[Evening thunder]

Low forming south of Greenland at T+168 looks like it might be ready to drop south east.. not sure I'm gunna like this run

[Summer Sun]

The Ecm 12z is really dragging it's heels and keeps the eastern half of the uk in a cool, cloudier and showery northerly flow while the west becomes more settled with lighter winds and more sunshine, west is best on this run, this is pretty much as the latest met office update in terms of the east being cooler and more showery until the middle of next week.

 

Indeed those in the east need to hope UKMO and GFS are right by sending the high much further east than ECM is doing

[Frosty.]

Low forming south of Greenland at T+168 looks like it might be ready to drop south east.. not sure I'm gunna like this run

the met office could not have scripted this run better, it's just like their update today, except for being too fast with the breakdown to unsettled from the west later next week.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Evening thunder]

the met office could not have scripted this run better, it's just like their update today, except for being too fast with the breakdown to unsettled from the west later next week.

 

Yes it does seem to be pretty close to what they are predictingThankfully at T192 the low doesn't slip SE quite like I thought it might with a ridge holding on in the south at least.

 

Edit.. oh it does at T216.. while Finland/Sweden bakes as normal.. probably too far off to really pay attention to and a middle ground between models may be better, although being the ECM I don't really like seeing this, and it follows the 00z run (although the 00z ensembles were better).

Edited June 19, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

t192 sees the high staying with us that trough is still causing a problem for some in the east no such worries in the west, however by t216 we all know where that low has going...............

 

 

............... yes you guessed it in our direction

 

Yes it does seem to be pretty close to what they are predicting

Thankfully at T192 the low doesn't slip SE quite like I thought it might with a ridge holding on in the south at least.

 

t126 isn't good though

Edited June 19, 2013 by Summer Sun