ireland Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

The best time for cold weather in my opinion anyway BFTV!!

Its been a great Summer and Autumn more of the same next year please

Edited October 15, 2013 by Pomeroysnow

[pad199207]

Looks like some VERY wet weather for a time tomorrow!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I know pad:(

[stormforce 10]

been absolutely beautiful weather here the last few days, now sadly its coming to an end, more turbulent weather on the horizon from wednesday onwards, could be a bit of flooding around. looking forward to a few autumnal gales.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Brilliant spell of weather, ah well hopefully the rain wont be here for long......

[sundog]

Pretty heavy rain here all morning, miserable. Ah well looks like we are going to be stuck in a mild often unsettled pattern for the next while. It will be a while yet before i see my first ground frost of the season.

[BornFromTheVoid]

24.5mm of rain overnight, a little minor flooding about but nothing too bad.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A nice morning, lovely bit of sunshine and mild too!!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Last night would have been perfect for Halloween, full moon, sinster blamkets of fog even a bloody barn owl flew past me on my lane, first time I have seen one up at this height!!

One could nearly imagine ghosts and ghouls lol

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Heavy rain here atm, I fail to see why anyone enjoys dull wet days like these, not for me I'm afraid!!

[stormforce 10]

overcast and wet but at least its mild.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The teleconnection based composites I've been using this year for forecasting have worked well, they suggest a return to more settled condition for November

 

 

Here's what things what's being suggested for December at this stage

 

[ronan]

Not great with charts so can you explain the December chart for me. High in the Atlantic, high over Russia and squeezing cold air down from the Arctic?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not great with charts so can you explain the December chart for me. High in the Atlantic, high over Russia and squeezing cold air down from the Arctic?

 

They're the upper level height anomalies, which can be useful for picking out the general pattern, such as the location of troughs and ridges with the jet stream.

 

In that December chart, the suggestion would be for the jet stream to ridge towards Greenland, then turn south just to our west, leaving a large trough over western Europe. This would encourage more northerly winds across the British Isles, with a tendency for high pressure to form to our west and low pressure to the east. With the trough/low pressure nearby, we'd likely get a good amount of precip, despite the increase in northerly winds.

Overall, December is looking average/cool and wet. Whether or not it gets cold enough for that extra precip to turn to snow is something we won't know until it's just before it happens. But I think there is good potential.

 

I'll be posting a full winter forecast next month, and things should be a little more certain then.

Edited October 18, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[ronan]

Good stuff. Thanks for that.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Cheers BFTV, looking forward to your thoughts on winter!

[BornFromTheVoid]

No worries guys!

 

Between Oct 1st and today, I've record over 2.3 times the September total rainfall. So quite a switch-around (98.3mm so far, compared to 41.6mm for Sept).

 

More rain today and even a risk of storms, should help to cross the 100mm mark. With the forecast continuing very unsettled, I'll probably pass the 150mm mark during the next week. Could be wettest month since August 2012 for the south of the country.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Dry and sunny here atm - may get the dog walked before the rain sets in!!

[BIG LAD]

not much to report folks but looks like a change to something cooler from Wednesday onwards. the dreaded model forum hinting at a much cooler outlook for November so heres hopeing!

[sundog]

Such a mild night for the time of year  14.7c

Jesus temp wise this is such a stop start autumn.

[ronan]

It is Sundog but if memory serves me right October and November of 09 and 10 were mild and look what followed especially 2010. Have a great feeling about this winter!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Good man Ronan keep the faith

[ronan]

You know me Pomeroy! I always keep the faith! Lol

[ronan]

Could be some nasty weather on the way towards the weekend! Maybe we will see Watcher come out of retirement for this one as i know he loves a good storm. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Beautiful day, light winds, crisp air and blue skies. A nice break until the storms and rain return tomorrow evening.