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Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Wise words Be Cause. For those with eyes to see there's plenty going on. Our garden is alive with bird life pecking away at red berries on bushes I tried and failed to uproot during the summer.  They get the berries.  I got strained ligaments!  There are squirrels stocking up for the winter and there's reputed to be a sparrow hawk in the neighbourhood. I can enjoy all this because I know that there will at some stage during the winter be a cold spell.  I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that it won't be like 2012 but it will be cold and could well be snowy, so I'll enjoy it when it comes and meanwhile look for the positives in this mild grey murk.  For excitement and amusement there are always the Model threads.

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I am slowly coming onboard. However, I am not going to get drawn in as it is a full 9 days away and remember the last cold spell. It was looking good until two days before when it shifted east.

This one looks far better, but we really need to be getting -1/-2c maxes with constant snow showers to get deep worthy snow. So -12c uppers etc.

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Looks good Ronan hopefully will end up like that. Smithy if every winter was like 2010 it would be too predictable, no discussion thread! The joys of living in an island with seas fed by the Gulf Stream.

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Well um no offence but snow and -1c max isn't uncommon. 2010 weather was more like -10c max so me expecting an ice day isn't too much. Maybe in cork but not here.

 

Yes, but Dec 2010 was exceptional cold. I would be surprised if any of us experienced cold that severe again in our lifetimes.

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Something is definitely brewing! As MS mentioned in the model thread, we have to wait until the models get into the higher resolution then we may have something to get excited about and also the 2 comments below from a forecaster from the MET and also a senior forecaster from netweather. Taken from the model thread.............

 

Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain.

 

And also from a Netweather Senior Forecaster........

 

Nick F

Those worried about the flatness of the jet shown upstream by the GFS, the modelled shunt of very cold air southeastwards across the UK later next week appears to be linked to displacement E and SE of the upper vortex across Greenland rather than from an increasingly meridional wave pattern working downstream creating trough amplification over us to allow cold air to escape south from more northerly latitudes.

 

Given the very cold deep cold air over Greenland and the northeastern Canada indicated by models, but a strong and fairly flat-ish PFJ which is shunted south by the colder air, a deep 'trigger' low may develop to the W or NW and track SE (as shown by 00z ECM) - with a severe northerly or northwesterly gale ushering in very cold air and snow from the north/northwest - with potential for blizzards for northern Britain a prospect.

 

After the calm and settled weather of recent, what unfolds later next week could come as a shock for some, but of much interest to the weather enthusiast.

 

Whether we see ECM deter idea of a closed upper low circulation develop over N America allowing height rises to extend across the top of Canada towards Greenland to prolong the cold or GFS's intact troughing south across N America from the polar regions with low heights extending across Greenland - remains to be seen.

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I'm actually happier with the slow evolution of this prospective cold spell than the more dramatic events which are sometimes forecast .. . .  which have a nasty habit of dissipating at the last moment.  Some way to go yet but we're gradually creeping towards it.

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Dudeeeeeeeeeeeeeessss and dudetttttttttttttteeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssss I'm back had no phone line or broadband since last Wednesda courtesy of the wind snapping a bit of wire.

 

Right does anyone want to fill me in  - is winter still over in NovemberPosted Image

 

Seen your post becasue - totally agree about the nature aspect, I try to do m bit for the Wildlife around here - a noticable amount of redwings and fieldfares about.

 

The wee birds are going mad for the feeders - but they are greedy wee things anyway!!

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I'm actually happier with the slow evolution of this prospective cold spell than the more dramatic events which are sometimes forecast .. . .  which have a nasty habit of dissipating at the last moment.  Some way to go yet but we're gradually creeping towards it.

Bit like the last one then.
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How similar is the chart i posted earlier to 1962!!!!

 

2nd chart is very small when clicked on!! Just view it on the previous page on this thread.

post-1251-0-98157600-1385588187_thumb.pn

post-1251-0-62561000-1385588213.png

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