ireland Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[smithyweather]

Temp is dropping rapidly. Cloud cleared and temp has fallen from 1.4c to 0.2c in 10 minutes! Fastest drop i've seen here before I think! Dew point is -5c so we will see...

Edited November 22, 2013 by smithyweather

[Su Campu]

-5.2 C at Gurteen this morning, with -10 C on the grass. 100 m visibility in freezing fog.

AAXX 2206103966 17901 /1201 11050 21057 30139 40238 53005 60002 73431

333 21052 3/110=

Edited November 22, 2013 by Su Campu

[smithyweather]

Good morning

-3c sunny. Met say frost last all day but I doubt it even if it maxes at 1 or 2c ground is too warm.

[be cause]

minus 5'C in the Blackwater valley   and still 2 below . Ice has thawed inside windows but refrozen on the aluminium frames ..Electric blanket proved its worth !

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 0.8C the minimum here. Plenty of frost about this morning anyway, and beautiful clear skies.

Yesterday's max of 5.6C was the lowest of Autumn/Winter so far.

[ronan]

Lovely frost this morning but it took a while to form through the night as there was plenty of cloud cover last night up to at least 1.30am. Had a quick nosey in the model thread and there are signs of something a wee bit more wintry on the way toward the end of the month so the roller coaster may well start again soon if the next few runs are giving the same signs. We shall see!

[smithyweather]

5c

-3c

 

Sunny. Today is a lovely day, had a min of -3c. It is sunny right now, all frost is melted except in the shade. In the sun puddles are still frozen. 

[ronan]

Further to my earlier post and this is just for fun and away out in FI but would be nice!

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I posted this in a few other threads just now, so here's the (slightly modified) Irish version!

 

Here's my winter 2013/2014 forecast.

 

For this forecast, I looked at 10 different teleconnections for their trends and averages in the last 6 to 9 months (and forecasts for MEI), and then compared those criteria with previous years, mostly back to 1951, and created a list of the years with the most similar teleconnections to this year.

 

Below are the 10 teleconnections and the criteria used with them.

 

Teleconnections ......................  ................... Criteria 

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO): Mean of the last 6 months (May to October) close to 0, and little month to month variation.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Mean of the last 9 months (February to October) close to 0, and a moderate to large amount of month to month variation.

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): Winters averaging between -0.5 and +0.5 for the October to February period.

Eurasian Snow Cover: Years that show an above average increase from September to October Eurasian snow extent.

Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Positive in Autumn and falling through Winter.

Solar Activity: An 11 year monthly sunspot mean of below 70

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): Mean above average over the last 9 months.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Mean moderately below average over the last 9 months

Arctic Sea Ice: A September sea ice area minimum of less than 4 million km² 

Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM): Mean of the last 9 months close to 0, with moderate month to month variation.

 

After going through the data, these were the most closely matched years

 

Year ... Criteria Matches out of 10

2010/11 = 7* 

2009/10 = 6

2006/07 = 6

2004/05 = 7 

2003/04 = 6 

2002/03 = 6 

1985/86 = 6 

1978/79 = 6 

1976/77 = 6

1973/74 = 6

 

So using this, each of the years with 6 matches would get 1 place in the composite maps, and 7 matches would get 2. *An exception here is 2010/11, which had a moderate El Nino, so that will only be included once.

 

So based on the above, here's the winter forecast.

 

--------------------- ------------------------------------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -----------------------

 

DECEMBER

 

A strong Atlantic ridge stretching into southern Greenland, coupled with low heights stretching from Scandinavia to the Iberian Peninsula, look to be the main features for December. An increase in northerly orientated winds could be expected with this set up, but, if the trough moves much further west, the is a chance of some milder southerly winds occurring, sourced from the western Mediterranean.

 

Precipitation is likely to be close to average in general, but with a slightly higher chance of below rather than above average monthly totals.

Temperatures are more likely to be below average, perhaps 0.5-1.0C below the 81-10 mean.

 

 

JANUARY

Northern blocking, a west based -ve NAO and a large trough across central Europe are the main features for January. Northerly and northeasterly winds are likely to be more common during the month.

 

Precipitation is likely to be below average again, especially in the west.

Temperatures are likely to be below average once more, with the coldest conditions further east. Temperatures around 0.7 to 1.5C below the 81-10 mean.

 

 

FEBRUARY

While confidence is lower this far out, February looks like featuring some very strong northern blocking, centred toward Greenland, with low heights across our south and into Europe. The set up should produce much more easterly winds than normal, maintaining the cold theme and enhancing the snow risk for eastern counties.

 

Precipitation is likely to be close to or above average in the south and east, and below average further north and west

Temperatures are likely to be below average everywhere, around 0.8C to 1.8C below the 81-10 average.

 

 

OVERALL

Strong heights over southern Greenland should be a recurring feature of the first 2 months of winter, bring plenty of northerly airflows, before more general blocking takes hold, carrying more easterly winds during February. With low heights nearby and plenty of cold sourced airflows, each month has the potential for spells of cold and snow. So while precip looks like being below average overall, snowfall totals may well end up above average.

The coming winter seems quite likely to be below average temperature-wise, with a good chance of all 3 winter months being below the 81-10 average. 

 

If I was to guess at a period with the highest risk of severe cold, I'd say late January and early February, as northern blocking strengthens eastward and brings a more easterly flow across the country

[ronan]

Great post BFTV. Thanks for that! Woukd be great if it turned out like that!

[stormforce 10]

very cold and frosty night tonight, outside temp of -3.6c so far.

[sundog]

good luck with your forecast bftv certainly hope you are right. lovely crisp clear day today,max temp 5.3c,last nights low 0.9c, current temp 0.6c.

[BIG LAD]

was -4c here this morn at 9.30am and frost never lifted in shaded areas. sharp frost again this eve with -2.5c at 7.30pm. cloud due to move over us tonight so wont be as cold. serious amount of leaves came off the trees today!

[BornFromTheVoid]

-0.8C overnight. Yesterday's max was just 4.6C, quite low for November. Quite cloudy so far today, with the occasional sunny spell. Still very cool though, just 4.1C.

[The Eagle]

A little depressing looking at the 5 - 10 day charts at the moment. Tantilisingly close to a breakthrough in terms of pressure rising to the northwest but not quite getting there yet. 

[gary1365]

the weather is depressing atm grey and slightly cold

[snowmore]

the weather is depressing atm grey and slightly cold

Yeh its horrible... As well as been a very dull day it has gotten damp and drizzely here since 4pm, not nice to walk the dogs in.

[sundog]

cloudy all day here,max temp 7.7c. thought I would get my first air frost of the season last night got down to 0.1c when low and behold the cloud rolled in.

[smithyweather]

Its a bit foggy tonight at 4c. Ugh.. So  boring, I suppose it  could be worse and be like 12c constantly, the frosts are nice. Although last night it only made it to 2c because it got cloudy. 

[The Eagle]

Evelyn Cusack from M.E just laid in to long range forecasters again on the television forecast and people who try to connect the abundance of berries with the harshness of the upcoming winter. She has serious issues with these people!

Edited November 23, 2013 by The Eagle

[smithyweather]

Castlerock now down to a median sea temp of 10.9c which is perfect. At least that is good so if any cold comes it won't be moderated as much. I think if we were to see a cold spell like the last one in the next two weeks we would easily see lying snow to sea level because of the cooling.

Edited November 24, 2013 by smithyweather

[Newberryone]

Evelyn Cusack from M.E just laid in to long range forecasters again on the television forecast and people who try to connect the abundance of berries with the harshness of the upcoming winter. She has serious issues with these people!

Ms Cusack's a legend in her own right. And to be fair while it may disappoint most coldies one has to take on board with a note of acceptance everything she had to say.

[be cause]

What a glorious grey day .. perfect late November weather !

[Newberryone]

Its a bit foggy tonight at 4c. Ugh.. So  boring, I suppose it  could be worse and be like 12c constantly, the frosts are nice. Although last night it only made it to 2c because it got cloudy. 

Judging by today's Farming Weatherline outlook it could be a case of one step forward and two back for those seeking anything cold in the short to medium term. 

This is clearly highlighted by these two charts.

 

To be fair and as pointed out by meteorologist Evelyn Cusack, precise details could change. Think this was made more as a reference to how next weekend might pan out.

[ronan]

Been quietly keeping an eye on things the past few days and i think that our next cold shot will be around the 6th December and could be quite a bit more substanial that the cold blip that we are currently having! 

 

PS. I have no time for RTE forecasts as the forecasters bore me to death!!