ireland Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[smithyweather]

Well the snow really starts at about T69.

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[cheshire snow]

Well the snow really starts at about T69.

 

 last one from me tonight then I will leave you be

 

 T69 Snow starts? marginal Smithy Your DP are still positive 0-2 really need to be below 0

 

 Anyway very nice pub run,no doubt different in morning

 

night all

 

C.S

[BIG LAD]

guys to be honest im not that worried if it snows this early or not. more important to have plenty of hard frosts to cool the ground down so that any future snow has a better chance of sticking around.

[smithyweather]

 

 last one from me tonight then I will leave you be

 

 T69 Snow starts? marginal Smithy Your DP are still positive 0-2 really need to be below 0

 

 Anyway very nice pub run,no doubt different in morning

 

night all

 

C.S

 

Temps are dropping from 4c at 3pm so it will probably be snow by 6pm, it actually shows blobs of snow at 6pm. My experience of these events usually involves a cold front coming through and the rain turning INSTANTLY to snow, i.e. once the -5c isotherm pulls through. So I don't think we will need to wait long once the -5c isotherm is through (and that will be through by 9am)

Edited November 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[bobbarley]

I agree big lad for those of us near the coast this will always be poor this early in the season. Good hard frosts for future events will be fine

[gary1365]

wow i've managed to not look at a chart all evening i didn't want to depress myself any further lol hope the whole winter isn't like this 

[bsnowy]

I think Monday night into Tuesday morning is going to be the best time to produce snow, however at the moment I think it could be just sleet around the coast looking at the met office map.  Hope it changes.

[smithyweather]

The Met office are full of onionse though, because they are forecasting sleet for me and I am 7 miles inland. Don't get that because the gfs has -8c uppers over me, how on earth can that be sleet!

 

Looking at the models though you can see that it is quite clear that the models don't know how to handle it,even this far out. The uppers on Wednesday onwards keep changing by dramatic amounts on the 0z we had a max of 8c on Wednesday now we have a max of 3c on Wednesday, 4c on Thursday, 4c on Friday and 4c on Saturday. So it is looking like it is going to cool down but i'm really not sure whats going because its all a mess. 

 

TBH I don't know why the met office are forecasting sleet with uppers of -8c but anyway. Their maximum temperatures seem way off with 7c forecasted for Portrush which is complete tripe to me, I think they are going to look like right idiots to be honest because the gfs has us down for 3c on Tuesday not 7c! The met office are actually forecasting mostly rain for coleraine on Tuesday which seems a bit daft! But sure we'll just have to wait and see. 

Edited November 16, 2013 by smithyweather

[smithyweather]

This is limavady's forecast for Tuesday.

 

And this is the 850's and the dew points. LOLLOL... whatever 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mind they do have a bit of snow in the night for Dungiven. 

Edited November 16, 2013 by smithyweather

[smithyweather]

That forecast is so depressing.  It was supposed to be really cold and then all out of nowhere that bullsuper duper mild came in, as if we don't have enough of that. 

Edited November 16, 2013 by smithyweather

[BornFromTheVoid]

For mid-November, I'll certainly take this!

 

 

Followed by cold, settled and possibly foggy conditions.... sounds good to me!

[smithyweather]

This is why i'm puzzled about the rain.

[gary1365]

MetO is giving heavy rain for me on tuesday

[BornFromTheVoid]

Considering that the seas are still quite mild, and this northerly air stream will bring about quite marginal conditions for snow, I'd say many coastal area may well end up with sleety rain, with showers turning more to snow further inland, especially at night. Of course, every little bit of elevation will count in these situations.

 

This will very much be a nowcasting situation, plenty of radar, local conditions and lamp post watching ahead! The models at this stage will cause more confusion than anything.

[gary1365]

yea i've stopped model watching again. as you say doesn't help with the sea being at it's warmest this time of year sst is probably around 11-12 c. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Don't forget folks we are still in Autumn so anuthing now is snow or not

[gary1365]

Now I remember how stressful I find winters lol. I wish I knew this website existed before now. Previous winters I tried tracking the snow with the meto website

[bobbarley]

Gary somehow this website makes snow hunting more stressful but also a lot more fun

[smithyweather]

Losing all hope on seeing snow the cold keeps getting pushed east every run.

This is so super dupere from brilliant with possible lying snow for 4 days to only 1 day of wet snow crap. Ugh all in 24 bloody hours.

Edited November 16, 2013 by smithyweather

[The Eagle]

If the 12z UKMO comes off it will be a very cold and snowy start to winter.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Eagle - but will it come off....

[sundog]

I really like this chart would give plenty of potential for snow for Ireland. But will it come to fruition.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

In deed could be interesting in 5 das time

 

The festering  letter that comes after x is not working on this bloodie computer - anone know how to fix grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Edited November 16, 2013 by Pomeroysnow

[gary1365]

hit it really hard lol 

 

just to make you jealous lol yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

hit it really hard lol 

 

just to make you jealous lol yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

 u r off moi christmas card list